BRAZIL SERIE A
03.05.2026 23:30
Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia
Referee: M. Delgado
Mirassol
Match Timeline
Corinthians
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
VAR
14'
Edson Carioca
Mirassol
🟨
15'
Edson Carioca
Mirassol
23'
Carlos Eduardo
Mirassol
33'
Edson Carioca · Assist: Carlos Eduardo
Mirassol
🟨
38'
Allan
Corinthians
🔄
62'
Denilson ↔ Yuri Lara
Mirassol
🔄
62'
Carlos Eduardo ↔ A. Galeano
Mirassol
🔄
62'
J. Lingard ↔ Kaio Cesar
Corinthians
🔄
71'
Edson Carioca ↔ Andre Luis
Mirassol
🔄
74'
R. Garro ↔ Z. Labyad
Corinthians
🔄
74'
Yuri Alberto ↔ Pedro Raul
Corinthians
🔄
74'
M. Pereira ↔ Dieguinho
Corinthians
🟨
76'
Antonio Galeano
Mirassol
🟨
78'
Neto Moura
Mirassol
80'
Dieguinho · Assist: Z. Labyad
Corinthians
🔄
81'
Breno Bidon ↔ Alex Santana
Corinthians
🔄
86'
Shaylon ↔ Eduardo
Mirassol
🟨
87'
Walter
Mirassol
🔄
87'
Victor Luis ↔ Rodrigues
Mirassol
🟨
90+4'
André Luis
Mirassol
🟨
90+4'
Gabriel Paulista
Corinthians

Mirassol vs Corinthians Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 79.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 46.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 77.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
79.8%
-
BTTS BTTS No
46.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
77.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
78.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Mirassol Win 34.4%
Draw 20.3%
Corinthians Win 45.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Mirassol0.92
Corinthians1.1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Mirassol Mirassol
WWDLW
16 GF / 20 GA
Corinthians Corinthians
WLDWL
15 GF / 11 GA
Key Stats
1.07
Average Goals Scored
0.94
1.33
Average Goals Conceded
0.69
7
BTTS Yes
5
7
Over 2.5
2
4.33
Shots on Goal
3.38

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Mirassol Mirassol 15 matches
Corinthians Corinthians 16 matches
Mirassol Statistic Corinthians
4 Wins 6
3 Draws 6
8 Losses 4
16 Goals For 15
20 Goals Against 11
1.07 Avg Goals Scored 0.94
1.33 Avg Goals Conceded 0.69
7 BTTS Yes 5
9 Over 1.5 10
7 Over 2.5 2
4 Over 3.5 1
2 Clean Sheets 9
6 Failed To Score 5
4.33 Shots On Goal 3.38
14 Total Shots 10.5
5.87 Corners 4.63
53.1% Ball Possession 54.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Corinthians. Mirassol have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Mirassol expected to line up in 3-5-2 and Corinthians in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Corinthians having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Mirassol Analysis

With 9 points from 12 games and a place of 18, Mirassol still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 7 defeats with a 13:18 goal balance points toward poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Going forward they depend heavily on Igor Formiga (3 goals), Nathan Fogaça (2 goals), Negueba (2 goals), with creative support from Alesson (4 assists), Shaylon (1 assists), Gabriel Pires (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 1 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Corinthians Analysis

With 15 points from 13 games and a place of 14, Corinthians still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 3 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 9:11, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Matheus Bidu (2 goals), Andre (1 goals), Breno Bidon (1 goals), with creative support from R. Garro (4 assists), Matheus Bidu (1 assists), Kaio César (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Mirassol won 2 times, Corinthians won 6 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:15 from Mirassol's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (79.8%)
Predicted formations: Mirassol 3-5-2 / Corinthians 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Mirassol 3, Corinthians 10
H2H summary: Mirassol wins 2, draws 1, Corinthians wins 6

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 15 7 3 45:21 24 52
D W L D W
2 24 14 6 4 48:21 27 48
W L W W D
3 25 13 6 6 37:25 12 45
D W D W D
4 25 11 9 5 39:32 7 42
D W W D D
5 25 10 10 5 37:30 7 40
W W D D D
6 25 11 6 8 35:36 -1 39
L W W W W
7 25 10 7 8 33:33 0 37
W W D W L
8 24 10 6 8 32:28 4 36
W D W D W
9 24 10 5 9 29:25 4 35
L W D L D
10 25 8 8 9 26:25 1 32
L L L W D
11 24 8 6 10 29:28 1 30
W L D L D
12 24 8 6 10 37:40 -3 30
L L L D W
13 25 8 5 12 24:37 -13 29
L L W L L
14 24 7 8 9 34:36 -2 29
W D W L D
15 24 7 7 10 27:32 -5 28
W L L W D
16 24 6 7 11 27:37 -10 25
D D L L W
17 24 6 7 11 27:39 -12 25
W L L D D
18 25 5 10 10 26:31 -5 25
L D D D D
19 25 5 8 12 30:42 -12 23
L L D D L
20 24 2 8 14 25:49 -24 14
L W D L D
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B