MEXICO LIGA MX
26.09.2026 03:00
Estadio Caliente

Club Tijuana vs Atlas Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 51.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
51.8%
-
BTTS Yes
78.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Club Tijuana Win 51.8%
Draw 11.6%
Atlas Win 36.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Club Tijuana1.55
Atlas1.17
Recent Form (Last 5)
Club Tijuana Club Tijuana
WWDLW
14 GF / 11 GA
Atlas Atlas
WLDWL
17 GF / 23 GA
Key Stats
1.56
Average Goals Scored
1.13
1.22
Average Goals Conceded
1.53
5
BTTS Yes
8
5
Over 2.5
6
3.71
Shots on Goal
3.67

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Club Tijuana Club Tijuana 9 matches
Atlas Atlas 15 matches
Club Tijuana Statistic Atlas
5 Wins 4
2 Draws 4
2 Losses 7
14 Goals For 17
11 Goals Against 23
1.56 Avg Goals Scored 1.13
1.22 Avg Goals Conceded 1.53
5 BTTS Yes 8
6 Over 1.5 10
5 Over 2.5 6
3 Over 3.5 4
3 Clean Sheets 4
2 Failed To Score 5
3.71 Shots On Goal 3.67
13.29 Total Shots 12
4.29 Corners 4.78
46.6% Ball Possession 51.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and Club Tijuana's more proactive style and Atlas's more cautious structure points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Club Tijuana expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Atlas in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Atlas having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Atlas. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Club Tijuana Analysis

So far, Club Tijuana have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 13 points from 7 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, while the 10:8 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on G. Mora (2 goals), Mourad (2 goals), R. Árciga (1 goals), with creative support from G. Mora (1 assists), Y. Padilla (1 assists), J. Vega (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Atlas Analysis

So far, Atlas have built a campaign that leaves them 9 in the table on 13 points from 8 matches. The record of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 12:14 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Duk (2 goals), Luís Esteves (1 goals), A. González (1 goals), with creative support from Luís Esteves (1 assists), Gustavo Ferrareis (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Club Tijuana won 7 times, Atlas won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:14 from Club Tijuana's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.53 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.4%)
Predicted formations: Club Tijuana 4-1-4-1 / Atlas 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Club Tijuana wins 7, draws 4, Atlas wins 4

Standings

Liga MX: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 6 1 1 18:6 12 19
W W W W D
2 9 5 3 1 17:8 9 18
D W W D W
3 8 5 2 1 17:8 9 17
D L W W W
4 9 5 0 4 16:15 1 15
L W W W L
5 9 4 2 3 11:11 0 14
D L W L W
6
Atlas Away
9 4 2 3 13:15 -2 14
D L D L W
7 8 4 1 3 14:10 4 13
W D L L W
8 7 4 1 2 10:7 3 13
W W L D W
10 7 4 1 2 10:8 2 13
L W L W D
11 9 3 3 3 12:13 -1 12
D L W L D
12 8 3 2 3 13:8 5 11
W W D D L
13 9 2 3 4 11:16 -5 9
W L L W D
14 9 1 5 3 8:13 -5 8
D L D D L
15 9 2 2 5 10:16 -6 8
L L D L D
16 9 1 4 4 9:13 -4 7
L D D D W
17 8 1 1 6 6:13 -7 4
W L D L L
18 9 1 0 8 6:23 -17 3
W L L L L
Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs: Quarter-finals)