ENGLAND CHAMPIONSHIP
11.05.2026 19:00
The Den
Referee: S. Barrott
Millwall
Match Timeline
Hull City
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
10'
John Egan
Hull City
🔄
45+2'
K. Joseph ↔ M. Belloumi
Hull City
🟨
52'
Charlie Hughes
Hull City
🔄
57'
T. Ballo ↔ M. Ivanovic
Millwall
🔄
63'
Z. Sturge ↔ A. Doughty
Millwall
🔄
64'
C. De Norre ↔ B. Bannan
Millwall
64'
M. Belloumi · Assist: M. Crooks
Hull City
🟨
69'
Mohamed Belloumi
Hull City
🔄
78'
L. Millar ↔ J. Gelhardt
Hull City
79'
J. Gelhardt · Assist: M. Belloumi
Hull City
🔄
84'
R. Slater ↔ J. Lundstram
Hull City
🔄
84'
R. Giles ↔ P. McNair
Hull City
🔄
84'
O. McBurnie ↔ L. Koumas
Hull City
🔄
85'
D. Mazou-Sacko ↔ L. Cundle
Millwall
🔄
85'
J. Coburn ↔ M. Langstaff
Millwall
🟨
88'
Femi Azeez
Millwall
🟨
90+5'
Joe Gelhardt
Hull City

Millwall vs Hull City Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 74%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 26.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 42.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
74%
-
BTTS BTTS No
26.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
42.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Millwall Win 74%
Draw 7.1%
Hull City Win 18.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Millwall1.38
Hull City1.31
Recent Form (Last 5)
Millwall Millwall
WWDLW
65 GF / 54 GA
Hull City Hull City
WLDWL
70 GF / 70 GA
Key Stats
1.35
Average Goals Scored
1.43
1.13
Average Goals Conceded
1.43
24
BTTS Yes
30
23
Over 2.5
31
4.23
Shots on Goal
3.98

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Millwall Millwall 48 matches
Hull City Hull City 49 matches
Millwall Statistic Hull City
24 Wins 21
12 Draws 12
12 Losses 16
65 Goals For 70
54 Goals Against 70
1.35 Avg Goals Scored 1.43
1.13 Avg Goals Conceded 1.43
24 BTTS Yes 30
38 Over 1.5 37
23 Over 2.5 31
11 Over 3.5 18
19 Clean Sheets 13
9 Failed To Score 11
4.23 Shots On Goal 3.98
12.98 Total Shots 11.22
5.65 Corners 4.57
46.9% Ball Possession 45.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

In knockout conditions, this fixture pairs two sides with a fairly similar football identity, which should make the margins especially important. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. The first leg ended level at 0-0, so the tie remains finely balanced going into this match. In the previous meeting, Millwall had more of the ball in the first leg (61% possession compared to 39%). Millwall were also more accurate in attack, recording 2 shots on target to 1. Millwall also attempted more passes (428 to 262) and completed 338. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Hull City. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances.

Millwall Analysis

Millwall enter this tie with a season profile built on 83 points from 46 matches, placing them 3 in their league. Their record of 24 wins, 11 draws, and 11 defeats with goals at 64:49 reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on F. Azeez (11 goals), Josh Coburn (9 goals), M. Ivanovic (9 goals), with creative support from F. Azeez (7 assists), T. Crama (6 assists), T. Ballo (5 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, the return of 13 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses suggests a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with L. Jensen, D. Kelly, M. Luongo unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Hull City Analysis

Hull City come into this tie placed 6 in their league with 73 points from 46 matches. With 21 wins, 10 draws, and 15 losses plus a goal ratio of 70:66, they bring poor form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on Oliver McBurnie (17 goals), J. Gelhardt (14 goals), K. Joseph (8 goals), with creative support from R. Giles (8 assists), Oliver McBurnie (7 assists), K. Joseph (5 assists), while defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the return of 10 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with A. Famewo, E. Matazo, A. Hadziahmetovic unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Millwall won 3 times, Hull City won 7 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:17 from Millwall's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 1.93 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.9%)
Predicted formations: Millwall 4-2-3-1 / Hull City 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Millwall 4, Hull City 4
H2H summary: Millwall wins 3, draws 5, Hull City wins 7

Standings

Championship
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 46 28 11 7 97:45 52 95
W W W D D
2 46 23 15 8 80:47 33 84
W D D W D
3 46 24 11 11 64:49 15 83
L D W D W
4 46 22 14 10 82:56 26 80
W D W D D
5 46 22 14 10 72:47 25 80
L L D D W
6 46 21 10 15 70:66 4 73
W W D W L
7 46 19 14 13 69:65 4 71
D L W W L
8 46 20 9 17 67:59 8 69
L W L W L
9 46 19 8 19 63:56 7 65
L D W W L
10 46 17 13 16 57:56 1 64
D W W D W
11 46 18 10 18 57:59 -2 64
W D W L W
12 46 17 11 18 59:59 0 62
W L D L D
13 46 18 6 22 66:66 0 60
W L L W W
14 46 15 15 16 55:62 -7 60
L W L L W
15 46 16 10 20 61:73 -12 58
L L L L D
16 46 14 15 17 53:65 -12 57
L L L L L
17 46 15 10 21 51:56 -5 55
L L L L D
18 46 14 13 19 49:64 -15 55
D W L W W
19 46 13 14 19 44:58 -14 53
L W L D L
20 46 13 13 20 42:56 -14 52
L W D L D
21 46 13 14 19 48:58 -10 51
L D W W D
22 46 11 14 21 45:59 -14 47
L W L L W
23 46 12 16 18 58:68 -10 46
W D D L L
24 46 2 12 32 29:89 -60 0
W L L D D
Promotion
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