01.09.2026 20:00
Estadio Miguel Grau
Referee: Rudy Mendez, Peru
Atletico Grau
Match Timeline
FBC Melgar
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
24'
A. de la Cruz ↔ I. Tapia
Atletico Grau
🔄
38'
L. Acevedo ↔ F. Oncoy
Atletico Grau
🟨
43'
Juan Escobar
FBC Melgar
🔄
46'
A. Fernandez ↔ R. Ruidiaz
Atletico Grau
🟨
59'
Mauro Da Luz
Atletico Grau
🔄
62'
C. Bordacahar ↔ J. Caceres
FBC Melgar
🔄
66'
P. de la Cruz ↔ P. Lavandeira Hernandez
Atletico Grau
🔄
66'
M. Da Luz ↔ A. Vasquez
Atletico Grau
69'
D. Barreto
Atletico Grau
🔄
71'
K. Minda ↔ H. Orzan
FBC Melgar
🔄
71'
N. Cabanillas ↔ M. Zegarra
FBC Melgar
🔄
72'
N. Quagliata ↔ F. Zanelatto
FBC Melgar
🔄
80'
M. Lazo ↔ L. Guzman
FBC Melgar

Atletico Grau vs FBC Melgar Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 50.1%
Odds 2.76
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds 1.91
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds 2.28
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
50.1%
2.76
BTTS Yes
54.1%
1.91
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
2.28
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
90.4%
1.59
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
6.00
Correct Score 1-2
-
11.00
Probability Distribution
Atletico Grau Win 34.6%
Draw 15.3%
FBC Melgar Win 50.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atletico Grau0.95
FBC Melgar1.41
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atletico Grau Atletico Grau
WWDLW
19 GF / 23 GA
FBC Melgar FBC Melgar
WLDWL
47 GF / 32 GA
Key Stats
0.83
Average Goals Scored
1.68
1
Average Goals Conceded
1.14
7
BTTS Yes
19
7
Over 2.5
16
4
Shots on Goal
4.57

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atletico Grau Atletico Grau 23 matches
FBC Melgar FBC Melgar 28 matches
Atletico Grau Statistic FBC Melgar
7 Wins 13
5 Draws 8
11 Losses 7
19 Goals For 47
23 Goals Against 32
0.83 Avg Goals Scored 1.68
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.14
7 BTTS Yes 19
10 Over 1.5 24
7 Over 2.5 16
5 Over 3.5 10
8 Clean Sheets 8
12 Failed To Score 4
4 Shots On Goal 4.57
11.74 Total Shots 14.48
4.04 Corners 4.91
45.9% Ball Possession 54.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around FBC Melgar's more proactive style and Atletico Grau's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward FBC Melgar. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. FBC Melgar carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 5 with 38 points while Atletico Grau sit 12 on 26, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Atletico Grau Analysis

Atletico Grau sit 12 with 26 points after 23 league matches. The record of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 11 defeats, together with a 19:23 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Raúl Ruidíaz (2 goals), Rafael Guarderas (1 goals), Patricio Álvarez (1 goals), with creative support from Rafael Guarderas (2 assists), Raúl Ruidíaz (1 assists), Elsar Rodas (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, a split that suggests an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

FBC Melgar Analysis

FBC Melgar come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 5 place with 38 points after 22 matches. They have recorded 11 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses, with a 39:26 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on Jhonny Vidales (8 goals), Bernardo Cuesta (5 goals), Nicolás Quagliata (4 goals), with creative support from Nicolás Quagliata (7 assists), Bernardo Cuesta (3 assists), Matías Zegarra (3 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the split of - wins, - draws, and - losses supports the view of an unclear split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Atletico Grau won 2 times, FBC Melgar won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:11 from Atletico Grau's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 1.8 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.7%)
Predicted formations: Atletico Grau 4-2-3-1 / FBC Melgar 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Atletico Grau wins 2, draws 4, FBC Melgar wins 4

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 15 8 3 42:18 24 53
L D L D W
2 26 14 7 5 43:27 16 49
W D W W W
3 26 13 6 7 44:28 16 45
W W L D W
4 26 13 6 7 35:24 11 45
L W W W D
5 26 13 3 10 38:37 1 42
L W W L W
6 26 12 5 9 35:44 -9 41
L L L L L
7 25 12 4 9 44:37 7 40
W L L D L
8 26 10 7 9 38:34 4 37
L W W W D
9 26 10 7 9 28:25 3 37
W L W W D
10 26 10 5 11 45:39 6 35
W W L L W
11 26 9 5 12 25:28 -3 32
W L W W W
12 26 9 5 12 34:42 -8 32
W W W L L
13 26 8 7 11 38:52 -14 31
W D W W L
14 26 7 9 10 34:36 -2 30
L D L W L
15 26 7 6 13 40:50 -10 27
W L W L L
16 26 6 7 13 24:37 -13 25
L L L W D
17 25 5 7 13 27:39 -12 22
L L L D D
18 26 4 8 14 30:47 -17 15
L L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2