COLOMBIA PRIMERA A
05.08.2026 01:20
Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campin
Referee: S. Toro
Millonarios
Match Timeline
Deportivo Pasto
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
11'
A. Llinas
Millonarios
🟨
20'
E. C. Serje Orozco
Deportivo Pasto
🟨
20'
R. Urena
Millonarios
🟨
21'
F. Bustos
Millonarios
25'
A. Llinas · Assist: F. Chaverra
Millonarios
🟨
27'
J. Micolta Piedahita
Deportivo Pasto
🔄
29'
J. Micolta Piedahita ↔ M. S. Jimenez
Deportivo Pasto
🟨
32'
E. A. Cabezas Quinonez
Deportivo Pasto
34'
L. Castro · Assist: L. Castro
Millonarios
🟨
47'
J. Quinones
Deportivo Pasto
63'
L. Castro · Assist: R. Contreras
Millonarios
🔄
66'
D. Chavez ↔ A. Ibarguen
Deportivo Pasto
🔄
66'
J. Quinones ↔ H. Mancilla
Deportivo Pasto
🔄
66'
S. Cordoba ↔ J. Obregon
Deportivo Pasto
🔄
69'
L. Castro ↔ D. Ruiz
Millonarios
🔄
70'
M. Garcia ↔ S. Viveros
Millonarios
🔄
75'
S. Valencia ↔ A. Estupinan
Millonarios
🟨
83'
J. Arias
Millonarios
🔄
83'
F. Chaverra ↔ D. Banguero
Millonarios
🔄
84'
R. Contreras ↔ D. Silva
Millonarios
🔄
85'
E. C. Serje Orozco ↔ F. Martinez
Deportivo Pasto

Millonarios vs Deportivo Pasto Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 65.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 61.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
65.2%
-
BTTS Yes
62.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
61.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Millonarios Win 34.8%
Draw 19.9%
Deportivo Pasto Win 45.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Millonarios1.32
Deportivo Pasto1.3
Recent Form (Last 5)
Millonarios Millonarios
WWDLW
32 GF / 28 GA
Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto
WLDWL
34 GF / 33 GA
Key Stats
1.28
Average Goals Scored
1.42
1.12
Average Goals Conceded
1.38
12
BTTS Yes
13
12
Over 2.5
13
5.14
Shots on Goal
3.83

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Millonarios Millonarios 25 matches
Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 24 matches
Millonarios Statistic Deportivo Pasto
8 Wins 11
6 Draws 4
11 Losses 9
32 Goals For 34
28 Goals Against 33
1.28 Avg Goals Scored 1.42
1.12 Avg Goals Conceded 1.38
12 BTTS Yes 13
16 Over 1.5 18
12 Over 2.5 13
6 Over 3.5 6
8 Clean Sheets 8
8 Failed To Score 5
5.14 Shots On Goal 3.83
15.38 Total Shots 11.87
5.95 Corners 4
47.6% Ball Possession 50.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Deportivo Pasto. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Deportivo Pasto arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Millonarios Analysis

Millonarios are currently 10 in the standings with 26 points from 19 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, while the 31:23 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 6 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Deportivo Pasto Analysis

Deportivo Pasto sit 3 with 34 points after 19 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 10 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 29:25, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through Santiago Córdoba (1 goals), Joider Micolta (1 goals), with creative support from Diego Chávez (1 assists), Hervin Goyes (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Millonarios won 10 times, Deportivo Pasto won 1 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:8 from Millonarios's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.07 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (80.1%)
Predicted formations: Millonarios 4-4-2 / Deportivo Pasto 4-4-2
H2H summary: Millonarios wins 10, draws 3, Deportivo Pasto wins 1

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
W W W W L
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
L D D L D
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
D L D L L
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
W D W D W
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
L L W D D
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
L W W D W
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
W D W D D
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
W D D D D
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
W D D L D
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
D D L D W
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
L W W L W
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
L D D D D
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
W D D W D
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
L L L L W
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
D D L D L
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
D D D W D
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
W L L L D
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
W W D D L
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
D L W W D
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
L D L W D
Post season qualification