FRANCE LIGUE 1
--.--.---- --:--
Stade Saint-Symphorien
Referee: J. Stinat
Metz
Match Timeline
Paris FC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
VAR
8'
Alimami Gory
Paris FC
🟨
13'
Urie-Michel Mboula
Metz
21'
A. Gory
Paris FC
🔄
30'
H. Diallo ↔ G. Kvilitaia
Metz
31'
G. Kvilitaia · Assist: S. Sane
Metz
🟨
38'
Koffi Kouao
Metz
🟨
45+1'
Ilan Kebbal
Paris FC
🔄
57'
U. Mboula ↔ B. Sarr
Metz
🟨
62'
Alimami Gory
Paris FC
🔄
66'
A. Gory ↔ V. Marchetti
Paris FC
69'
Otavio · Assist: C. Immobile
Paris FC
🔄
74'
T. Yegbe ↔ J. Pandore
Metz
🔄
75'
J. Deminguet ↔ B. Stambouli
Metz
🔄
75'
N. Mbala ↔ L. Michal
Metz
🔄
78'
H. Traore ↔ A. Camara
Paris FC
🔄
78'
C. Immobile ↔ W. Geubbels
Paris FC
🔄
88'
T. De Smet ↔ N. Sangui
Paris FC
🔄
88'
L. Koleosho ↔ M. Cafaro
Paris FC
89'
I. Kebbal · Assist: D. Coppola
Paris FC

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 65.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 77.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 73.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
65.5%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
77.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
73.6%
-
Probability Distribution
Metz Win 29.5%
Draw 5%
Paris FC Win 65.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Metz1.15
Paris FC1.63
Recent Form (Last 5)
Metz Metz
WWDLW
29 GF / 67 GA
Paris FC Paris FC
WLDWL
41 GF / 47 GA
Key Stats
0.94
Average Goals Scored
1.28
2.16
Average Goals Conceded
1.47
14
BTTS Yes
18
19
Over 2.5
16
3.19
Shots on Goal
3.75

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Metz Metz 31 matches
Paris FC Paris FC 32 matches
Metz Statistic Paris FC
4 Wins 10
6 Draws 11
21 Losses 11
29 Goals For 41
67 Goals Against 47
0.94 Avg Goals Scored 1.28
2.16 Avg Goals Conceded 1.47
14 BTTS Yes 18
23 Over 1.5 23
19 Over 2.5 16
12 Over 3.5 9
7 Clean Sheets 9
14 Failed To Score 9
3.19 Shots On Goal 3.75
9.94 Total Shots 11.41
4.03 Corners 4.28
49.9% Ball Possession 51.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Paris FC seem to carry the heavier availability burden, which may reduce some of their stability compared to the home side. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Paris FC. Paris FC carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 12 with 35 points while Metz sit 18 on 15, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Metz have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Metz expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Paris FC in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Paris FC having the stronger overall control.

Metz Analysis

With 15 points from 29 games and a place of 18, Metz still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 3 wins, 6 draws, and 20 defeats, and the 26:63 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on G. Hein (6 goals), H. Diallo (4 goals), G. Tsitaishvili (3 goals), with creative support from G. Hein (5 assists), G. Tsitaishvili (2 assists), C. Sabaly (2 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with J. Mangondo, B. Traore, I. Guerti unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Paris FC Analysis

Paris FC are currently 12 in the standings with 35 points from 29 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 11 draws, and 10 losses, while the 37:45 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on I. Kebbal (8 goals), M. Munetsi (4 goals), Jonathan Ikoné (3 goals), with creative support from I. Kebbal (4 assists), M. Simon (3 assists), M. Lopez (3 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 7 draws, and 5 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with J. Krasso, S. Alakouch, P. Hamel, P. Lees-Melou unavailable.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Metz won 9 times, Paris FC won 3 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 28:16 from Metz's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3.14 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95%)
Predicted formations: Metz 4-2-3-1 / Paris FC 4-1-4-1
Missing players: Metz 7, Paris FC 11
H2H summary: Metz wins 9, draws 2, Paris FC wins 3
Stats
Metz Metz
Paris FC Paris FC
Shots on Goal
6
Shots on Goal
7
Shots off Goal
3
Shots off Goal
7
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
1
6 Corner Kicks 5
9 Fouls 8
1 Offsides 1
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Goal 7
3 Shots off Goal 7
4 Blocked Shots 1
9 Shots insidebox 9
4 Shots outsidebox 6
4 Goalkeeper Saves 4
504 Total passes 488
438 Passes accurate 410
1.01 expected_goals 1.74
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Metz
Formation
Paris FC
P. Sy
P. Sy
K. Kouao
K. Kouao
S. Sane
🎯
S. Sane
T. Yegbe
T. Yegbe
U. Mboula
U. Mboula
J. Gbamin
J. Gbamin
J. Deminguet
J. Deminguet
N. Mbala
N. Mbala
G. Hein
G. Hein
G. Tsitaishvili
G. Tsitaishvili
H. Diallo
H. Diallo
O. Nkambadio
O. Nkambadio
H. Traore
H. Traore
D. Coppola
🎯
D. Coppola
Otavio
Otavio
T. De Smet
T. De Smet
S. Chergui
S. Chergui
R. Matondo
R. Matondo
A. Gory
A. Gory
I. Kebbal
I. Kebbal
L. Koleosho
L. Koleosho
C. Immobile
🎯
C. Immobile
Metz 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
61
P. Sy
G
39
K. Kouao
🟨 38'
D
38
S. Sane
🎯 31'
D
15
T. Yegbe
↓ 74'
D
4
U. Mboula
↓ 57' 🟨 13'
D
5
J. Gbamin
M
20
J. Deminguet
↓ 75'
M
34
N. Mbala
↓ 75'
M
10
G. Hein
M
7
G. Tsitaishvili
M
30
H. Diallo
↓ 30'
F
Substitutes
1
J. Fischer
G
21
B. Stambouli
↑ 75'
M
70
B. Sarr
↑ 57'
D
11
G. Kvilitaia
⚽ 31' ↑ 30'
F
12
A. Toure
M
35
J. Pandore
↑ 74'
F
19
L. Michal
↑ 75'
F
3
M. Diop
D
Paris FC 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
16
O. Nkambadio
G
14
H. Traore
↓ 78'
D
42
D. Coppola
🎯 89'
D
6
Otavio
⚽ 69'
D
28
T. De Smet
↓ 88'
D
31
S. Chergui
M
23
R. Matondo
M
7
A. Gory
⚽ 21' ↓ 66' 🟨 62'
M
10
I. Kebbal
⚽ 89' 🟨 45+1'
M
24
L. Koleosho
↓ 88'
M
36
C. Immobile
🎯 69' ↓ 78'
F
Substitutes
35
K. Trapp
G
93
J. Ikone
F
5
M. Mbow
D
19
N. Sangui
↑ 88'
D
17
A. Camara
↑ 78'
M
4
V. Marchetti
↑ 66'
M
13
M. Cafaro
↑ 88'
M
18
M. Munetsi
M
9
W. Geubbels
↑ 78'
F
Last matches: Metz
08.08.26
Lig
Metz
Guingamp
2
1
W
01.08.26
Fri
Metz
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1
3
L
25.07.26
Fri
Metz
Fortuna Sittard
3
1
W
22.07.26
Fri
Metz
Sochaux
4
1
W
17.07.26
Fri
Metz
Seraing United
6
0
W
11.07.26
Fri
Metz
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
2
1
W
11.07.26
Fri
Metz
Versailles
1
1
D
04.07.26
Fri
Metz
FC Differdange 03
1
2
L
03.07.26
Fri
Metz
US Mondorf-les-bains
5
2
W
17.05.26
Lig
Metz
Nice
0
0
D
10.05.26
Lig
Metz
Lorient
0
4
L
02.05.26
Lig
Metz
Monaco
1
2
L
29.04.26
Fri
Metz
Seraing United
1
1
D
26.04.26
Lig
Metz
Le Havre
4
4
D
10.04.26
Lig
Metz
Marseille
1
3
L
05.04.26
Lig
Metz
Nantes
0
0
D
22.03.26
Lig
Metz
Rennes
0
0
D
15.03.26
Lig
Metz
Toulouse
3
4
L
08.03.26
Lig
Metz
Lens
0
3
L
01.03.26
Lig
Metz
Stade Brestois 29
0
1
L
Last matches: Paris FC
08.08.26
Fri
Paris FC
FSV Mainz 05
0
4
L
01.08.26
Fri
Paris FC
VfB Stuttgart
2
2
D
24.07.26
Fri
Paris FC
Como
2
2
D
18.07.26
Fri
Paris FC
Reims
1
0
W
17.05.26
Lig
Paris FC
Paris Saint Germain
2
1
W
10.05.26
Lig
Paris FC
Rennes
1
2
L
03.05.26
Lig
Paris FC
Stade Brestois 29
4
0
W
26.04.26
Lig
Paris FC
Lille
0
1
L
10.04.26
Lig
Paris FC
Monaco
4
1
W
05.04.26
Lig
Paris FC
Lorient
1
1
D
22.03.26
Lig
Paris FC
Le Havre
3
2
W
15.03.26
Lig
Paris FC
Strasbourg
0
0
D
08.03.26
Lig
Paris FC
Lyon
1
1
D
01.03.26
Lig
Paris FC
Nice
1
0
W
21.02.26
Lig
Paris FC
Toulouse
1
1
D
14.02.26
Lig
Paris FC
Lens
0
5
L
08.02.26
Lig
Paris FC
Auxerre
0
0
D
04.02.26
Cou
Paris FC
Lorient
0
2
L
31.01.26
Lig
Paris FC
Marseille
2
2
D
25.01.26
Lig
Paris FC
Angers
0
0
D
H2H: Metz vs Paris FC
19.04.26
H2H
Metz
Paris FC
1
3
L
31.08.25
H2H
Paris FC
Metz
3
2
L
18.01.25
H2H
Metz
Paris FC
3
1
W
14.09.24
H2H
Paris FC
Metz
1
2
W
29.04.23
H2H
Metz
Paris FC
1
1
D
12.11.22
H2H
Paris FC
Metz
1
4
W
22.02.19
H2H
Metz
Paris FC
2
0
W
22.09.18
H2H
Paris FC
Metz
2
1
L
26.10.16
H2H
Paris FC
Metz
1
1
D
18.03.16
H2H
Paris FC
Metz
1
2
W
30.10.15
H2H
Metz
Paris FC
2
1
W
11.08.15
H2H
Paris FC
Metz
1
2
W
26.04.13
H2H
Paris FC
Metz
0
2
W
30.11.12
H2H
Metz
Paris FC
3
0
W
Last matches: Metz
08.08.26
Lig
Metz
Guingamp
2
1
W
01.08.26
Fri
Metz
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1
3
L
25.07.26
Fri
Metz
Fortuna Sittard
3
1
W
22.07.26
Fri
Metz
Sochaux
4
1
W
17.07.26
Fri
Metz
Seraing United
6
0
W
11.07.26
Fri
Metz
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
2
1
W
11.07.26
Fri
Metz
Versailles
1
1
D
04.07.26
Fri
Metz
FC Differdange 03
1
2
L
03.07.26
Fri
Metz
US Mondorf-les-bains
5
2
W
10.05.26
Lig
Metz
Lorient
0
4
L
02.05.26
Lig
Metz
Monaco
1
2
L
05.04.26
Lig
Metz
Nantes
0
0
D
15.03.26
Lig
Metz
Toulouse
3
4
L
01.03.26
Lig
Metz
Stade Brestois 29
0
1
L
15.02.26
Lig
Metz
Auxerre
1
3
L
06.02.26
Lig
Metz
Lille
0
0
D
25.01.26
Lig
Metz
Lyon
2
5
L
11.01.26
Cou
Metz
Montpellier
0
4
L
13.12.25
Lig
Metz
Paris Saint Germain
2
3
L
28.11.25
Lig
Metz
Rennes
0
1
L
H2H at home: Metz
19.04.26
H2H
Metz
Paris FC
1
3
L
18.01.25
H2H
Metz
Paris FC
3
1
W
29.04.23
H2H
Metz
Paris FC
1
1
D
22.02.19
H2H
Metz
Paris FC
2
0
W
30.10.15
H2H
Metz
Paris FC
2
1
W
30.11.12
H2H
Metz
Paris FC
3
0
W
Last matches: Paris FC
08.08.26
Fri
Paris FC
FSV Mainz 05
0
4
L
01.08.26
Fri
Paris FC
VfB Stuttgart
2
2
D
24.07.26
Fri
Paris FC
Como
2
2
D
10.05.26
Lig
Paris FC
Rennes
1
2
L
05.04.26
Lig
Paris FC
Lorient
1
1
D
15.03.26
Lig
Paris FC
Strasbourg
0
0
D
08.03.26
Lig
Paris FC
Lyon
1
1
D
21.02.26
Lig
Paris FC
Toulouse
1
1
D
08.02.26
Lig
Paris FC
Auxerre
0
0
D
04.02.26
Cou
Paris FC
Lorient
0
2
L
18.01.26
Lig
Paris FC
Nantes
2
1
W
12.01.26
Cou
Paris FC
Paris Saint Germain
1
0
W
04.01.26
Lig
Paris FC
Paris Saint Germain
1
2
L
20.12.25
Cou
Paris FC
Raon l'Etape
3
0
W
07.12.25
Lig
Paris FC
Le Havre
0
0
D
23.11.25
Lig
Paris FC
Lille
2
4
L
01.11.25
Lig
Paris FC
Monaco
1
0
W
19.10.25
Lig
Paris FC
Lens
1
2
L
28.09.25
Lig
Paris FC
Nice
1
1
D
14.09.25
Lig
Paris FC
Stade Brestois 29
2
1
W
H2H away: Paris FC
19.04.26
H2H
Metz
Paris FC
1
3
W
18.01.25
H2H
Metz
Paris FC
3
1
L
29.04.23
H2H
Metz
Paris FC
1
1
D
22.02.19
H2H
Metz
Paris FC
2
0
L
30.10.15
H2H
Metz
Paris FC
2
1
L
30.11.12
H2H
Metz
Paris FC
3
0
L

Standings

Ligue 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 24 4 6 74:29 45 76
L W W D W
2 34 22 4 8 66:35 31 70
W L W D D
3 34 18 7 9 52:37 15 61
L W D W D
4 34 18 6 10 53:40 13 60
L L W W W
5 34 18 5 11 63:45 18 59
W W L D L
6 34 17 8 9 59:50 9 59
L W L W W
7 34 16 6 12 60:54 6 54
L L W D D
8 34 15 8 11 58:47 11 53
W W D L W
9 34 11 12 11 48:51 -3 45
L W D L W
10 33 12 8 13 47:46 1 44
W W D L L
11 34 11 11 12 47:50 -3 44
W L W L W
12 34 10 9 15 43:55 -12 39
D L L L D
13 34 9 9 16 29:48 -19 36
D D L L D
14 34 7 14 13 32:44 -12 35
W L D D D
15 34 8 10 16 34:44 -10 34
W W W L D
16 34 7 11 16 37:60 -23 32
W D D L D
17 33 5 8 20 29:52 -23 23
L W L L D
18
Metz Home
34 3 8 23 32:76 -44 17
D L L D L
Champions League
Champions League Qualification
UEFA Europa League
Conference League Qualification
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation

Missing Players

Metz 7 missing
-
J. Mangondo
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
B. Traore
Missing Fixture Calf Injury
OUT
-
I. Guerti
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
B. Munongo
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
G. Abuashvili
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
O. Ba
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
M. Colin
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
Paris FC 11 missing
-
J. Krasso
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
S. Alakouch
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
P. Hamel
Missing Fixture Calf Injury
OUT
-
V. Marchetti
Questionable Lower Back Injury
OUT
-
R. Riou
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
J. Lopez
Questionable Back Injury
OUT
-
P. Lees-Melou
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
-
M. Simon
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
M. Cafaro
Questionable Inactive
OUT
-
T. De Smet
Questionable Inactive
OUT
-
T. Kolodziejczak
Questionable Inactive
OUT