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SLOVENIA › 1. SNL
18.10.2026 16:00
Ljudski vrt

Maribor vs Celje Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 70.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
70.1%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
88.3%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Maribor Win 70.1%
Draw 5.8%
Celje Win 24.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Maribor1.54
Celje1.31
Recent Form (Last 5)
Maribor Maribor
WWDLW
30 GF / 20 GA
Celje Celje
WLDWL
32 GF / 28 GA
Key Stats
1.76
Average Goals Scored
1.39
1.18
Average Goals Conceded
1.22
13
BTTS Yes
13
9
Over 2.5
9
0
Shots on Goal
5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Maribor Maribor 17 matches
Celje Celje 23 matches
Maribor Statistic Celje
6 Wins 8
9 Draws 8
2 Losses 7
30 Goals For 32
20 Goals Against 28
1.76 Avg Goals Scored 1.39
1.18 Avg Goals Conceded 1.22
13 BTTS Yes 13
16 Over 1.5 17
9 Over 2.5 9
5 Over 3.5 6
4 Clean Sheets 7
1 Failed To Score 4
0 Shots On Goal 5
0 Total Shots 9.29
0 Corners 4.71
0% Ball Possession 52.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Celje. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Celje having the stronger overall control.

Maribor Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 20 points from 10 games, Maribor bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 5 wins, 5 draws, and 0 losses, with a 19:8 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Celje Analysis

Placed 5 with 15 points from 10 outings, Celje continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 12:11 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Maribor won 2 times, Celje won 9 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:25 from Maribor's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.3%)
Predicted formations: Maribor - / Celje 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Maribor wins 2, draws 4, Celje wins 9

Standings

1. SNL
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 11 6 5 0 21:9 12 23
W D W D W
2 11 5 4 2 14:11 3 19
D W L W W
3 11 5 3 3 12:11 1 18
L W W D W
4 11 5 1 5 18:16 2 16
W L W W L
5 11 4 3 4 13:11 2 15
D L W W D
6
Celje Away
10 4 3 3 12:11 1 15
W D L L W
7 11 3 4 4 16:12 4 13
L D W D L
8 11 3 2 6 15:20 -5 11
L W L L W
9 11 2 4 5 13:24 -11 10
D D L D L
10 10 1 3 6 12:21 -9 6
D L L L D
Qualifying
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation