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ENGLAND › CHAMPIONSHIP
13.10.2026 18:45
Turf Moor
Referee: Anthony Backhouse
Burnley
Match Timeline
Charlton
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
36'
J. Bruun Larsen · Assist: J. Laurent
Burnley
⚽
50'
K. Ramsay · Assist: L. Jones
Charlton
⚽
57'
L. Ramazani · Assist: Igor
Burnley
🟨
62'
Conor Coventry
Charlton
🟨
66'
Igor Júlio
Burnley
🔄
71'
J. Vardy ↔ A. Broja
Burnley
🔄
71'
J. Bruun Larsen ↔ M. Edwards
Burnley
🔄
74'
D. McNamara ↔ H. Knibbs
Charlton
🔄
74'
M. Leaburn ↔ M. Mbick
Charlton
🔄
75'
A. Bell ↔ I. Mesik
Charlton
🔄
75'
O. Skipp ↔ C. Kelman
Charlton
🔄
80'
L. Ramazani ↔ A. Hountondji
Burnley
🔄
86'
T. Campbell ↔ M. Alli
Charlton
🟨
90+4'
Max Alleyne
Burnley
🔄
90+1'
A. Ahmedhodzic ↔ H. Ekdal
Burnley
⚽
90'
I. Mesik · Assist: H. Knibbs
Charlton

Burnley vs Charlton Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 75.3%
Odds 2.30
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds 1.83
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds 1.88
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
75.3%
2.30 ▥
BTTS Yes
75.1%
1.83 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
1.88 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
79.8%
1.23 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
11.00 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
17.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Burnley Win 24.7%
Draw 26.8%
Charlton Win 48.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Burnley1.21
Charlton1.32
Recent Form (Last 5)
Burnley Burnley
WWDLW
19 GF / 30 GA
Charlton Charlton
WLDWL
13 GF / 17 GA
Key Stats
1.27
Average Goals Scored
0.87
2
Average Goals Conceded
1.13
13
BTTS Yes
6
10
Over 2.5
5
4.22
Shots on Goal
2.78

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Burnley Burnley 15 matches
Charlton Charlton 15 matches
Burnley Statistic Charlton
1 Wins 6
6 Draws 5
8 Losses 4
19 Goals For 13
30 Goals Against 17
1.27 Avg Goals Scored 0.87
2 Avg Goals Conceded 1.13
13 BTTS Yes 6
14 Over 1.5 10
10 Over 2.5 5
8 Over 3.5 2
1 Clean Sheets 6
1 Failed To Score 5
4.22 Shots On Goal 2.78
13.78 Total Shots 9.89
4.56 Corners 4.44
49.7% Ball Possession 39.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Charlton. Charlton carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 9 with 12 points while Burnley sit 24 on 4, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Burnley Analysis

Burnley approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 24 with 4 points from 8 matches. Across the season they have posted 0 wins, 4 draws, and 4 defeats, and the 9:17 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Z. Amdouni (2 goals), Zian Flemming (2 goals), L. Ramazani (1 goals), with creative support from L. Ramazani (1 assists), Max Alleyne (1 assists), J. Bruun Larsen (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 0 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Charlton Analysis

Charlton are currently 9 in the standings with 12 points from 8 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, while the 7:10 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on L. Jones (2 goals), K. Ahearne-Grant (1 goals), T. Campbell (1 goals), with creative support from K. Ahearne-Grant (1 assists), Tyler Bindon (1 assists), S. Carey (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Burnley won 5 times, Charlton won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:1 from Burnley's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (75.3%)
Predicted formations: Burnley 4-2-3-1 / Charlton 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Burnley 13, Charlton 3
H2H summary: Burnley wins 5, draws 0, Charlton wins 1

Standings

Championship
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 16:7 9 23
W W W W L
2 10 6 3 1 20:14 6 21
W W D D W
3 10 5 4 1 29:12 17 19
W D D W W
4 10 4 5 1 17:11 6 17
W W D W L
5 10 4 5 1 15:9 6 17
W D D D D
6 10 5 2 3 12:10 2 17
W L L D W
7 10 6 2 2 21:10 11 16
W W L W W
8 10 5 1 4 17:16 1 16
L W W W D
9 10 4 3 3 15:13 2 15
W W D W L
10 9 4 2 3 16:14 2 14
L L W W D
11 10 4 2 4 16:16 0 14
L W D D L
12 10 4 2 4 12:14 -2 14
L D W L L
13 10 3 5 2 10:13 -3 14
D D L D D
14 10 4 1 5 15:18 -3 13
W L W W L
15 10 3 3 4 14:14 0 12
L W L L W
16 9 3 2 4 12:13 -1 11
W L D D W
17 10 2 5 3 11:15 -4 11
L D W L D
18 10 3 2 5 7:17 -10 11
L L L W W
19 10 2 4 4 16:15 1 10
W L W L D
20 10 3 0 7 17:20 -3 9
L L L L W
21 10 1 5 4 15:19 -4 8
D W D L D
22 10 2 2 6 8:19 -11 8
L L L L W
23 10 1 3 6 9:19 -10 6
L D D L L
24 10 1 1 8 8:20 -12 4
L L D L L
Promotion - Premier League
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Relegation - League One