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ENGLAND › CHAMPIONSHIP
13.10.2026 19:00
bet365 Stadium
Referee: Elliot Bell
Stoke City
Match Timeline
Middlesbrough
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
48'
Callum Brittain · Assist: Amario Cozier-Duberry
Middlesbrough
⚽
50'
Neto Borges
Stoke City
🟨
51'
Sebastian Berhalter
Middlesbrough
🔄
64'
Sebastian Berhalter ↔ Riley McGree
Middlesbrough
🔄
64'
Jeremy Sarmiento ↔ Tommy Conway
Middlesbrough
🔄
67'
Lamine Cissé ↔ George Hirst
Stoke City
🔄
67'
Bae Jun-ho ↔ Justin Devenny
Stoke City
🟨
68'
Luke Graham
Stoke City
⚽
73'
will lankshear
Middlesbrough
🔄
77'
will lankshear ↔ Kyle Joseph
Middlesbrough
🔄
78'
Amario Cozier-Duberry ↔ Max Arfsten
Middlesbrough
🔄
79'
Junior Tchamadeu ↔ Bosun Lawal
Stoke City
🔄
79'
El Hadji Soumare ↔ Róbert Boženík
Stoke City
🔄
79'
Eric Junior Bocat ↔ Luca Bombino
Stoke City
⚽
85'
Róbert Boženík · Assist: George Hirst
Stoke City
⚽
90+1'
Neto Borges
Middlesbrough

Stoke City vs Middlesbrough Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 55.1%
Odds 3.60
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds 1.62
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.82
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
55.1%
3.60 ▥
BTTS Yes
75.1%
1.62 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.82 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.12 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
5.50 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
13.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Stoke City Win 55.1%
Draw 4.9%
Middlesbrough Win 40%
Expected Goals (xG)
Stoke City1.46
Middlesbrough1.59
Recent Form (Last 5)
Stoke City Stoke City
WWDLW
18 GF / 16 GA
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough
WLDWL
22 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
1.38
Average Goals Scored
1.83
1.23
Average Goals Conceded
1.58
9
BTTS Yes
10
7
Over 2.5
8
4
Shots on Goal
5.22

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Stoke City Stoke City 13 matches
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 12 matches
Stoke City Statistic Middlesbrough
6 Wins 5
3 Draws 5
4 Losses 2
18 Goals For 22
16 Goals Against 19
1.38 Avg Goals Scored 1.83
1.23 Avg Goals Conceded 1.58
9 BTTS Yes 10
10 Over 1.5 10
7 Over 2.5 8
3 Over 3.5 6
3 Clean Sheets 2
1 Failed To Score 0
4 Shots On Goal 5.22
11.78 Total Shots 17.11
4.44 Corners 5.56
44.9% Ball Possession 59.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Middlesbrough. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Stoke City expected to line up in 3-5-2 and Middlesbrough in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Middlesbrough having the stronger overall control. Stoke City come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Stoke City Analysis

So far, Stoke City have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 13 points from 8 matches. Their overall return of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses with goals at 13:12 reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking weight is carried by E. Bocat (2 goals), E. Galbraith (2 goals), S. Gallagher (2 goals), with creative support from E. Bocat (2 assists), E. Galbraith (1 assists), S. Gallagher (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Middlesbrough Analysis

Middlesbrough arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 3 place with 15 points after 8 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses, while the 16:12 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on W. Lankshear (6 goals), A. Cozier-Duberry (2 goals), S. Berhalter (2 goals), with creative support from L. Ayling (2 assists), T. Conway (2 assists), A. Cozier-Duberry (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Stoke City won 4 times, Middlesbrough won 7 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:20 from Stoke City's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.47 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.1%)
Predicted formations: Stoke City 3-5-2 / Middlesbrough 3-4-2-1
Missing players: Stoke City 5, Middlesbrough 3
H2H summary: Stoke City wins 4, draws 4, Middlesbrough wins 7

Standings

Championship
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 6 2 1 15:7 8 20
W W W L D
2 9 5 3 1 17:12 5 18
W D D W W
3 9 4 4 1 23:12 11 16
D D W W W
4 9 5 1 3 15:13 2 16
W W W D W
5 8 4 2 2 15:11 4 14
L W W D L
6 9 3 5 1 11:8 3 14
D D D D L
7 9 3 5 1 13:11 2 14
W D W L D
8 9 4 2 3 16:15 1 14
W D D L W
9 9 4 2 3 10:9 1 14
L L D W W
10 9 4 2 3 12:13 -1 14
D W L L W
11 9 5 2 2 20:10 10 13
W L W W D
12 9 3 4 2 8:11 -3 13
D L D D L
13 9 3 3 3 14:13 1 12
W D W L L
14 9 3 3 3 12:11 1 12
W L L W L
15 9 2 5 2 10:13 -3 11
D W L D D
16 9 3 2 4 7:11 -4 11
L L W W D
17 9 3 1 5 12:17 -5 10
L W W L L
18 9 3 0 6 17:19 -2 9
L L L W W
19 8 2 2 4 9:11 -2 8
L D D W L
20 9 2 2 5 7:14 -7 8
L L L W L
21 9 1 4 4 11:14 -3 7
L W L D L
22 9 1 4 4 13:17 -4 7
W D L D L
23 9 1 3 5 8:15 -7 6
D D L L L
24 9 1 1 7 8:16 -8 4
L D L L W
Promotion - Premier League
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Relegation - League One