SPAIN SEGUNDA DIVISIóN
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio La Rosaleda
Referee: S. Lax
Malaga
Match Timeline
Almeria
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
11'
Rafa Garrido
Malaga
🔄
46'
A. Ochoa ↔ J. Munoz
Malaga
🔄
56'
A. Puigmal ↔ N. Melamed
Almeria
🔄
63'
A. Nino ↔ Chupe
Malaga
🔄
63'
R. Rodriguez ↔ I. Merino
Malaga
🔄
68'
M. de la Fuente ↔ Leo Baptistao
Almeria
🔄
78'
D. Lorenzo ↔ R. Enriquez
Malaga
🔄
83'
S. Arribas ↔ J. Morcillo
Almeria
🟨
90'
Izan Merino
Malaga
🔄
90'
D. Larrubia ↔ J. Lobete
Malaga

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 83.4%
Odds 1.36
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds 1.67
1 agree / 0 disagree
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 61.1%
Odds 1.97
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
83.4%
1.36
BTTS Yes
75.1%
1.67
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
61.1%
1.97
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
88.5%
1.80
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.60
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.50
Probability Distribution
Malaga Win 51%
Draw 16.6%
Almeria Win 32.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Malaga1.65
Almeria1.63
Recent Form (Last 5)
Malaga Malaga
WWDLW
81 GF / 56 GA
Almeria Almeria
WLDWL
88 GF / 68 GA
Key Stats
1.76
Average Goals Scored
1.91
1.22
Average Goals Conceded
1.48
29
BTTS Yes
33
27
Over 2.5
32
5.26
Shots on Goal
5.49

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Malaga Malaga 46 matches
Almeria Almeria 46 matches
Malaga Statistic Almeria
23 Wins 24
11 Draws 9
12 Losses 13
81 Goals For 88
56 Goals Against 68
1.76 Avg Goals Scored 1.91
1.22 Avg Goals Conceded 1.48
29 BTTS Yes 33
36 Over 1.5 39
27 Over 2.5 32
14 Over 3.5 19
12 Clean Sheets 10
6 Failed To Score 5
5.26 Shots On Goal 5.49
13.41 Total Shots 15.09
4.07 Corners 4.64
49.8% Ball Possession 51.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

In knockout conditions, this fixture pairs two sides with a fairly similar football identity, which should make the margins especially important. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Almeria have the edge after taking the first leg 3-2, leaving Malaga needing to respond to a 1-goal deficit. In the previous meeting, Malaga had more of the ball in the first leg (54% possession compared to 46%). Almeria carried the greater threat on target, finishing with 6 shots on goal compared to 4. Malaga also attempted more passes (470 to 400) and completed 387. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Almeria. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances.

Malaga Analysis

Malaga come into this tie placed 4 in their league with 73 points from 42 matches. The return of 21 wins, 10 draws, and 11 defeats, together with a 75:52 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Their attacking influence is driven by Chupe (25 goals), A. Nino (12 goals), David Larrubia (11 goals), with creative support from Joaquín Muñoz (6 assists), Chupe (5 assists), R. Rodriguez (4 assists), and at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, the return of 12 wins, 7 draws, and 2 losses suggests a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Almeria Analysis

Almeria come into this tie placed 3 in their league with 74 points from 42 matches. The return of 22 wins, 8 draws, and 12 defeats, together with a 81:63 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking influence is driven by S. Arribas (26 goals), A. Embarba (16 goals), Leo Baptistao (9 goals), with creative support from A. Embarba (10 assists), S. Arribas (7 assists), A. Munoz (6 assists), and at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, the return of 7 wins, 6 draws, and 8 losses suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Malaga won 3 times, Almeria won 7 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:20 from Malaga's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.13 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83.4%)
Predicted formations: Malaga 4-2-3-1 / Almeria 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Malaga wins 3, draws 5, Almeria wins 7
Stats
Malaga Malaga
Almeria Almeria
Shots on Goal
3
Shots on Goal
2
Shots off Goal
4
Shots off Goal
6
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
1
4 Corner Kicks 2
12 Fouls 11
3 Offsides 0
59% Ball Possession 41%
11 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Goal 2
4 Shots off Goal 6
4 Blocked Shots 1
6 Shots insidebox 3
5 Shots outsidebox 6
2 Goalkeeper Saves 3
517 Total passes 351
435 Passes accurate 280
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 0 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Malaga
Formation
Almeria
A. Herrero
A. Herrero
C. Puga
C. Puga
D. Murillo
D. Murillo
J. Montero
J. Montero
Rafita
Rafita
D. Larrubia
D. Larrubia
C. Dotor
C. Dotor
R. Rodriguez
R. Rodriguez
A. Ochoa
A. Ochoa
D. Lorenzo
D. Lorenzo
A. Nino
A. Nino
A. Fernandez
A. Fernandez
D. Chirino
D. Chirino
Rodrigo Ely
Rodrigo Ely
F. Bonini
F. Bonini
A. Munoz
A. Munoz
S. Dzodic
S. Dzodic
D. Lopy
D. Lopy
A. Puigmal
A. Puigmal
S. Arribas
S. Arribas
A. Embarba
A. Embarba
M. de la Fuente
M. de la Fuente
Malaga 4-4-1-1
Starting XI
1
A. Herrero
G
3
C. Puga
D
16
D. Murillo
D
20
J. Montero
D
31
Rafita
🟨 11'
D
10
D. Larrubia
↓ 90'
M
12
C. Dotor
M
37
R. Rodriguez
↓ 63'
M
35
A. Ochoa
↓ 46'
M
22
D. Lorenzo
↓ 78'
F
21
A. Nino
↓ 63'
F
Substitutes
13
C. Lopez
G
5
D. Brasanac
M
14
V. Garcia
D
11
J. Munoz
↑ 46'
F
17
E. Jauregi
F
24
J. Lobete
↑ 90'
F
9
Chupe
↑ 63'
F
18
D. Sanchez
D
6
R. Enriquez
↑ 78'
M
36
A. Recio
D
2
J. Gabilondo
D
23
I. Merino
↑ 63' 🟨 90'
M
Almeria 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
A. Fernandez
G
22
D. Chirino
D
5
Rodrigo Ely
D
18
F. Bonini
D
3
A. Munoz
D
29
S. Dzodic
M
17
D. Lopy
M
2
A. Puigmal
↓ 56'
M
11
S. Arribas
↓ 83'
M
23
A. Embarba
M
24
M. de la Fuente
↓ 68'
F
Substitutes
13
F. Martinez
G
21
Chumi
D
9
Thalys
F
16
M. Luna
D
12
Leo Baptistao
↑ 68'
F
4
N. Monte
D
14
I. Baba
M
7
J. Morcillo
↑ 83'
F
19
P. Soko
F
20
A. Centelles
D
10
N. Melamed
↑ 56'
M
8
Gui Guedes
M
Last matches: Malaga
10.06.26
Seg
Malaga
Las Palmas
1
1
D
07.06.26
Seg
Malaga
Las Palmas
1
0
W
31.05.26
Seg
Malaga
Zaragoza
2
0
W
24.05.26
Seg
Malaga
Racing Santander
1
1
D
16.05.26
Seg
Malaga
AD Ceuta FC
4
1
W
09.05.26
Seg
Malaga
Sporting Gijon
2
1
W
02.05.26
Seg
Malaga
Eibar
4
2
W
25.04.26
Seg
Malaga
Castellón
2
3
L
19.04.26
Seg
Malaga
Almeria
2
3
L
11.04.26
Seg
Malaga
Las Palmas
2
0
W
04.04.26
Seg
Malaga
Deportivo La Coruna
1
1
D
01.04.26
Seg
Malaga
FC Andorra
3
3
D
28.03.26
Seg
Malaga
Leganes
0
0
D
21.03.26
Seg
Malaga
Cadiz
3
0
W
15.03.26
Seg
Malaga
Huesca
5
3
W
07.03.26
Seg
Malaga
Valladolid
3
3
D
28.02.26
Seg
Malaga
Granada CF
1
0
W
22.02.26
Seg
Malaga
Albacete
1
0
W
16.02.26
Seg
Malaga
Real Sociedad II
1
2
L
08.02.26
Seg
Malaga
Cultural Leonesa
2
1
W
Last matches: Almeria
09.06.26
Seg
Almeria
Castellón
3
2
W
06.06.26
Seg
Almeria
Castellón
1
1
D
31.05.26
Seg
Almeria
Valladolid
1
0
W
24.05.26
Seg
Almeria
Sporting Gijon
1
3
L
16.05.26
Seg
Almeria
Las Palmas
1
2
L
09.05.26
Seg
Almeria
Burgos
0
0
D
04.05.26
Seg
Almeria
Mirandes
4
2
W
26.04.26
Seg
Almeria
Granada CF
4
2
W
19.04.26
Seg
Almeria
Malaga
3
2
W
12.04.26
Seg
Almeria
Racing Santander
1
5
L
05.04.26
Seg
Almeria
Leganes
2
1
W
02.04.26
Seg
Almeria
Castellón
0
2
L
29.03.26
Seg
Almeria
Real Sociedad II
5
1
W
20.03.26
Seg
Almeria
Huesca
3
1
W
14.03.26
Seg
Almeria
Zaragoza
0
2
L
09.03.26
Seg
Almeria
Cultural Leonesa
3
0
W
27.02.26
Seg
Almeria
Albacete
1
1
D
21.02.26
Seg
Almeria
Cordoba
2
1
W
13.02.26
Seg
Almeria
FC Andorra
3
2
W
08.02.26
Seg
Almeria
Cadiz
2
1
W
H2H: Malaga vs Almeria
14.06.26
H2H
Malaga
Almeria
0
0
D
19.04.26
H2H
Almeria
Malaga
3
2
L
21.12.25
H2H
Malaga
Almeria
2
1
W
26.07.25
H2H
Almeria
Malaga
1
2
W
01.03.25
H2H
Almeria
Malaga
2
2
D
08.12.24
H2H
Malaga
Almeria
1
1
D
27.07.24
H2H
Malaga
Almeria
0
1
L
27.07.23
H2H
Almeria
Malaga
0
1
W
12.02.22
H2H
Malaga
Almeria
0
1
L
04.09.21
H2H
Almeria
Malaga
2
0
L
31.07.21
H2H
Malaga
Almeria
1
1
D
30.03.21
H2H
Malaga
Almeria
0
3
L
13.12.20
H2H
Almeria
Malaga
3
1
L
20.07.20
H2H
Almeria
Malaga
0
0
D
07.09.19
H2H
Malaga
Almeria
0
1
L
Last matches: Malaga
10.06.26
Seg
Malaga
Las Palmas
1
1
D
24.05.26
Seg
Malaga
Racing Santander
1
1
D
09.05.26
Seg
Malaga
Sporting Gijon
2
1
W
25.04.26
Seg
Malaga
Castellón
2
3
L
11.04.26
Seg
Malaga
Las Palmas
2
0
W
28.03.26
Seg
Malaga
Leganes
0
0
D
15.03.26
Seg
Malaga
Huesca
5
3
W
07.03.26
Seg
Malaga
Valladolid
3
3
D
22.02.26
Seg
Malaga
Albacete
1
0
W
08.02.26
Seg
Malaga
Cultural Leonesa
2
1
W
23.01.26
Seg
Malaga
Burgos
3
0
W
11.01.26
Seg
Malaga
AD Ceuta FC
2
1
W
21.12.25
Seg
Malaga
Almeria
2
1
W
08.12.25
Seg
Malaga
Zaragoza
1
1
D
23.11.25
Seg
Malaga
Mirandes
3
2
W
08.11.25
Seg
Malaga
Cordoba
2
2
D
26.10.25
Seg
Malaga
FC Andorra
4
1
W
12.10.25
Seg
Malaga
Deportivo La Coruna
3
0
W
21.09.25
Seg
Malaga
Cadiz
0
1
L
06.09.25
Seg
Malaga
Granada CF
2
2
D
H2H at home: Malaga
14.06.26
H2H
Malaga
Almeria
0
0
D
21.12.25
H2H
Malaga
Almeria
2
1
W
08.12.24
H2H
Malaga
Almeria
1
1
D
27.07.24
H2H
Malaga
Almeria
0
1
L
12.02.22
H2H
Malaga
Almeria
0
1
L
31.07.21
H2H
Malaga
Almeria
1
1
D
30.03.21
H2H
Malaga
Almeria
0
3
L
07.09.19
H2H
Malaga
Almeria
0
1
L
Last matches: Almeria
06.06.26
Seg
Almeria
Castellón
1
1
D
24.05.26
Seg
Almeria
Sporting Gijon
1
3
L
09.05.26
Seg
Almeria
Burgos
0
0
D
26.04.26
Seg
Almeria
Granada CF
4
2
W
12.04.26
Seg
Almeria
Racing Santander
1
5
L
02.04.26
Seg
Almeria
Castellón
0
2
L
20.03.26
Seg
Almeria
Huesca
3
1
W
14.03.26
Seg
Almeria
Zaragoza
0
2
L
27.02.26
Seg
Almeria
Albacete
1
1
D
08.02.26
Seg
Almeria
Cadiz
2
1
W
25.01.26
Seg
Almeria
Eibar
0
1
L
10.01.26
Seg
Almeria
Mirandes
2
2
D
21.12.25
Seg
Almeria
Malaga
1
2
L
06.12.25
Seg
Almeria
FC Andorra
2
1
W
03.12.25
Cop
Almeria
Eldense
1
2
L
26.11.25
Seg
Almeria
AD Ceuta FC
2
3
L
22.11.25
Seg
Almeria
Leganes
3
0
W
29.10.25
Cop
Almeria
Lorca Deportiva
2
0
W
19.10.25
Seg
Almeria
Cordoba
1
1
D
04.10.25
Seg
Almeria
Deportivo La Coruna
1
1
D
H2H away: Almeria
14.06.26
H2H
Malaga
Almeria
0
0
D
21.12.25
H2H
Malaga
Almeria
2
1
L
08.12.24
H2H
Malaga
Almeria
1
1
D
27.07.24
H2H
Malaga
Almeria
0
1
W
12.02.22
H2H
Malaga
Almeria
0
1
W
31.07.21
H2H
Malaga
Almeria
1
1
D
30.03.21
H2H
Malaga
Almeria
0
3
W
07.09.19
H2H
Malaga
Almeria
0
1
W
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Home 2.27
Draw 3.22
Away 3.55
FIRST HALF WINNER
Home 2.85
Draw 2.29
Away 3.95
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.29
Under 1.5 3.78
Over 2.0 1.45
Under 2.0 2.86
Over 2.25 1.71
Under 2.25 2.23
Over 2.5 1.97
Under 2.5 1.92
Over 2.75 2.21
Under 2.75 1.72
Over 3.5 3.27
Under 3.5 1.36
Over 3.0 2.64
Under 3.0 1.52
Over 4.5 6.49
Under 4.5 1.13
Over 3.25 2.33
Under 3.25 1.61
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Home 2.25
Draw 3.20
Away 3.40
FIRST HALF WINNER
Home 2.88
Draw 2.20
Away 3.60
SECOND HALF WINNER
Home 2.50
Draw 2.50
Away 3.25
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.25
Under 1.5 3.75
Over 2.5 1.90
Under 2.5 1.90
Over 3.5 3.25
Under 3.5 1.33
Over 0.5 1.05
Under 0.5 11.00
Over 4.5 6.50
Under 4.5 1.11
Over 7.5 51.00
Under 7.5 1.00
Over 5.5 13.00
Under 5.5 1.04
Over 6.5 26.00
Under 6.5 1.01
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Home 2.22
Draw 3.23
Away 3.54
FIRST HALF WINNER
Home 2.85
Draw 2.01
Away 4.20
SECOND HALF WINNER
Home 2.45
Draw 2.53
Away 3.52
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.23
Under 1.5 3.64
Over 1.75 1.31
Under 1.75 3.22
Over 2.0 1.38
Under 2.0 2.85
Over 2.25 1.65
Under 2.25 2.29
Over 2.5 1.87
Under 2.5 1.97
Over 2.75 2.01
Under 2.75 1.73
Over 3.5 2.88
Under 3.5 1.35
Over 0.5 1.00
Under 0.5 9.20
Over 0.75 1.01
Under 0.75 8.95
Over 1.0 1.03
Under 1.0 8.00
Over 1.25 1.13
Under 1.25 4.88
Over 3.0 2.38
Under 3.0 1.53
Over 4.5 5.45
Under 4.5 1.08
Over 3.25 2.63
Under 3.25 1.41
Over 3.75 3.46
Under 3.75 1.23
Over 4.0 4.70
Under 4.0 1.13
Over 4.25 5.09
Under 4.25 1.10
Over 4.75 5.00
Under 4.75 1.10
Over 5.0 10.00
Under 5.0 1.03
Over 7.5 50.00
Under 7.5 1.00
Over 5.5 12.50
Under 5.5 1.01
Over 6.5 26.00
Under 6.5 1.01
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Home 2.10
Draw 3.40
Away 3.15
FIRST HALF WINNER
Home 2.70
Draw 2.23
Away 3.65
SECOND HALF WINNER
Home 2.48
Draw 2.63
Away 3.30
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.23
Under 1.5 3.70
Over 2.0 1.38
Under 2.0 2.80
Over 2.25 1.62
Under 2.25 2.25
Over 2.5 1.83
Under 2.5 1.93
Over 2.75 2.06
Under 2.75 1.73
Over 3.5 3.10
Under 3.5 1.32
Over 0.5 1.01
Under 0.5 10.50
Over 3.0 2.45
Under 3.0 1.52
Over 4.5 6.00
Under 4.5 1.10
Over 3.25 2.80
Under 3.25 1.42
Over 3.75 3.20
Under 3.75 1.33
Over 5.5 9.50
Under 5.5 1.02

Standings

Segunda División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 42 25 7 10 90:61 29 82
W D W W W
2 42 22 11 9 65:44 21 77
L W W W W
3 42 22 8 12 81:63 18 74
D W D W L
4 42 21 10 11 75:52 23 73
D D W W D
5 42 20 13 9 57:40 17 73
D L W D W
6 42 20 12 10 70:51 19 72
L D W W D
7 42 20 12 10 48:33 15 72
W W W D D
8 42 19 10 13 52:40 12 67
L W L W L
9 42 18 7 17 60:54 6 61
W W W L L
10 42 17 10 15 57:61 -4 61
D L L W W
11 42 17 10 15 51:63 -12 61
W W L D W
12 42 16 11 15 56:55 1 59
L W W W W
13 42 16 10 16 62:54 8 58
L L L W L
14 42 12 12 18 50:56 -6 48
L L L L W
15 42 12 11 19 52:61 -9 47
D L D W D
16 42 11 13 18 43:51 -8 46
W L D L L
17 42 12 10 20 44:57 -13 46
L L L W L
18 42 11 10 21 41:61 -20 43
L W D L D
19 42 10 10 22 47:69 -22 40
L W D L L
20 42 9 11 22 41:63 -22 38
D L D L L
21 42 9 10 23 39:68 -29 37
D L W L D
22 42 8 12 22 35:59 -24 36
L D L L L
Promotion
Promotion Play-offs
Relegation