Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | No Draw |
83.4%
|
1.36 | |
| BTTS | Yes |
75.1%
|
1.67 | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
61.1%
|
1.97 | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
88.5%
|
1.80 | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
3.60 | |
| Correct Score | 2-1 |
-
|
9.50 |
Malaga
Almeria
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Malaga
46 matches
Almeria
46 matches
| Malaga | Statistic | Almeria |
|---|---|---|
| 23 | Wins | 24 |
| 11 | Draws | 9 |
| 12 | Losses | 13 |
| 81 | Goals For | 88 |
| 56 | Goals Against | 68 |
| 1.76 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.91 |
| 1.22 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.48 |
| 29 | BTTS Yes | 33 |
| 36 | Over 1.5 | 39 |
| 27 | Over 2.5 | 32 |
| 14 | Over 3.5 | 19 |
| 12 | Clean Sheets | 10 |
| 6 | Failed To Score | 5 |
| 5.26 | Shots On Goal | 5.49 |
| 13.41 | Total Shots | 15.09 |
| 4.07 | Corners | 4.64 |
| 49.8% | Ball Possession | 51.3% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
In knockout conditions, this fixture pairs two sides with a fairly similar football identity, which should make the margins especially important. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Almeria have the edge after taking the first leg 3-2, leaving Malaga needing to respond to a 1-goal deficit. In the previous meeting, Malaga had more of the ball in the first leg (54% possession compared to 46%). Almeria carried the greater threat on target, finishing with 6 shots on goal compared to 4. Malaga also attempted more passes (470 to 400) and completed 387. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Almeria. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances.
Malaga come into this tie placed 4 in their league with 73 points from 42 matches. The return of 21 wins, 10 draws, and 11 defeats, together with a 75:52 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Their attacking influence is driven by Chupe (25 goals), A. Nino (12 goals), David Larrubia (11 goals), with creative support from Joaquín Muñoz (6 assists), Chupe (5 assists), R. Rodriguez (4 assists), and at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, the return of 12 wins, 7 draws, and 2 losses suggests a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.
Almeria come into this tie placed 3 in their league with 74 points from 42 matches. The return of 22 wins, 8 draws, and 12 defeats, together with a 81:63 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking influence is driven by S. Arribas (26 goals), A. Embarba (16 goals), Leo Baptistao (9 goals), with creative support from A. Embarba (10 assists), S. Arribas (7 assists), A. Munoz (6 assists), and at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, the return of 7 wins, 6 draws, and 8 losses suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Malaga won 3 times, Almeria won 7 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:20 from Malaga's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.13 goals per game.
Malaga
3
2
4
6
4
1
Lineups
Malaga
Las Palmas
Malaga
Las Palmas
Malaga
Zaragoza
Malaga
Racing Santander
Malaga
AD Ceuta FC
Malaga
Sporting Gijon
Malaga
Eibar
Malaga
Castellón
Malaga
Almeria
Malaga
Las Palmas
Malaga
Deportivo La Coruna
Malaga
FC Andorra
Malaga
Leganes
Malaga
Cadiz
Malaga
Huesca
Malaga
Valladolid
Malaga
Granada CF
Malaga
Albacete
Malaga
Real Sociedad II
Malaga
Cultural Leonesa
Almeria
Castellón
Almeria
Castellón
Almeria
Valladolid
Almeria
Sporting Gijon
Almeria
Las Palmas
Almeria
Burgos
Almeria
Mirandes
Almeria
Granada CF
Almeria
Malaga
Almeria
Racing Santander
Almeria
Leganes
Almeria
Castellón
Almeria
Real Sociedad II
Almeria
Huesca
Almeria
Zaragoza
Almeria
Cultural Leonesa
Almeria
Albacete
Almeria
Cordoba
Almeria
FC Andorra
Almeria
Cadiz
Malaga
Las Palmas
Malaga
Racing Santander
Malaga
Sporting Gijon
Malaga
Castellón
Malaga
Las Palmas
Malaga
Leganes
Malaga
Huesca
Malaga
Valladolid
Malaga
Albacete
Malaga
Cultural Leonesa
Malaga
Burgos
Malaga
AD Ceuta FC
Malaga
Almeria
Malaga
Zaragoza
Malaga
Mirandes
Malaga
Cordoba
Malaga
FC Andorra
Malaga
Deportivo La Coruna
Malaga
Cadiz
Malaga
Granada CF
Almeria
Castellón
Almeria
Sporting Gijon
Almeria
Burgos
Almeria
Granada CF
Almeria
Racing Santander
Almeria
Castellón
Almeria
Huesca
Almeria
Zaragoza
Almeria
Albacete
Almeria
Cadiz
Almeria
Eibar
Almeria
Mirandes
Almeria
Malaga
Almeria
FC Andorra
Almeria
Eldense
Almeria
AD Ceuta FC
Almeria
Leganes
Almeria
Lorca Deportiva
Almeria
Cordoba
Almeria
Deportivo La Coruna
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42 | 25 | 7 | 10 | 90:61 | 29 | 82 |
W
D
W
W
W
|
|
| 2 | 42 | 22 | 11 | 9 | 65:44 | 21 | 77 |
L
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 3 |
Almeria
Away
|
42 | 22 | 8 | 12 | 81:63 | 18 | 74 |
D
W
D
W
L
|
| 4 |
Malaga
Home
|
42 | 21 | 10 | 11 | 75:52 | 23 | 73 |
D
D
W
W
D
|
| 5 | 42 | 20 | 13 | 9 | 57:40 | 17 | 73 |
D
L
W
D
W
|
|
| 6 | 42 | 20 | 12 | 10 | 70:51 | 19 | 72 |
L
D
W
W
D
|
|
| 7 | 42 | 20 | 12 | 10 | 48:33 | 15 | 72 |
W
W
W
D
D
|
|
| 8 | 42 | 19 | 10 | 13 | 52:40 | 12 | 67 |
L
W
L
W
L
|
|
| 9 | 42 | 18 | 7 | 17 | 60:54 | 6 | 61 |
W
W
W
L
L
|
|
| 10 | 42 | 17 | 10 | 15 | 57:61 | -4 | 61 |
D
L
L
W
W
|
|
| 11 | 42 | 17 | 10 | 15 | 51:63 | -12 | 61 |
W
W
L
D
W
|
|
| 12 | 42 | 16 | 11 | 15 | 56:55 | 1 | 59 |
L
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 13 | 42 | 16 | 10 | 16 | 62:54 | 8 | 58 |
L
L
L
W
L
|
|
| 14 | 42 | 12 | 12 | 18 | 50:56 | -6 | 48 |
L
L
L
L
W
|
|
| 15 | 42 | 12 | 11 | 19 | 52:61 | -9 | 47 |
D
L
D
W
D
|
|
| 16 | 42 | 11 | 13 | 18 | 43:51 | -8 | 46 |
W
L
D
L
L
|
|
| 17 | 42 | 12 | 10 | 20 | 44:57 | -13 | 46 |
L
L
L
W
L
|
|
| 18 | 42 | 11 | 10 | 21 | 41:61 | -20 | 43 |
L
W
D
L
D
|
|
| 19 | 42 | 10 | 10 | 22 | 47:69 | -22 | 40 |
L
W
D
L
L
|
|
| 20 | 42 | 9 | 11 | 22 | 41:63 | -22 | 38 |
D
L
D
L
L
|
|
| 21 | 42 | 9 | 10 | 23 | 39:68 | -29 | 37 |
D
L
W
L
D
|
|
| 22 | 42 | 8 | 12 | 22 | 35:59 | -24 | 36 |
L
D
L
L
L
|