WORLD CONMEBOL LIBERTADORES
--.--.---- --:--
Estádio do Maracanã
Referee: Cristian Garay, Chile
Fluminense
Match Timeline
Independ. Rivadavia
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
17'
L. Costa
Independ. Rivadavia
🟨
45'
Ignacio
Fluminense
🔄
46'
Hercules ↔ L. Acosta
Fluminense
🔄
46'
R. Castillo ↔ A. Canobbio
Fluminense
🔄
55'
Guilherme Arana ↔ Rene
Fluminense
🔄
62'
Hulk ↔ G. Cano
Fluminense
🔄
66'
L. Bucca ↔ G. Rios
Independ. Rivadavia
🔄
66'
L. Costa ↔ K. A. Vazquez
Independ. Rivadavia
🟨
70'
Nonato
Fluminense
🔄
78'
Y. Soteldo ↔ J. Savarino
Fluminense
🔄
78'
Nonato ↔ PH Ganso
Fluminense
🔄
79'
I. Villalba ↔ A. Osella
Independ. Rivadavia
🔄
79'
M. Salas ↔ A. Vigo
Independ. Rivadavia
🔄
89'
M. Fernandez ↔ D. Crego
Independ. Rivadavia
🔄
90+5'
A. Arce ↔ S. Moreyra
Independ. Rivadavia

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 53.2%
Odds 1.74
BTTS
Yes
Probability 63.2%
Odds 2.10
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds 2.46
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
53.2%
1.74
BTTS Yes
63.2%
2.10
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
2.46
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.48
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.75
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
Fluminense Win 53.2%
Draw 4%
Independ. Rivadavia Win 42.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Fluminense1.29
Independ. Rivadavia1.55
Recent Form (Last 5)
Fluminense Fluminense
WWDLW
46 GF / 34 GA
Independ. Rivadavia Independ. Rivadavia
WLDWL
53 GF / 27 GA
Key Stats
1.53
Average Goals Scored
1.83
1.13
Average Goals Conceded
0.93
21
BTTS Yes
20
14
Over 2.5
16
5.54
Shots on Goal
5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Fluminense Fluminense 30 matches
Independ. Rivadavia Independ. Rivadavia 29 matches
Fluminense Statistic Independ. Rivadavia
13 Wins 19
10 Draws 6
7 Losses 4
46 Goals For 53
34 Goals Against 27
1.53 Avg Goals Scored 1.83
1.13 Avg Goals Conceded 0.93
21 BTTS Yes 20
25 Over 1.5 23
14 Over 2.5 16
7 Over 3.5 7
6 Clean Sheets 8
5 Failed To Score 3
5.54 Shots On Goal 5
15.07 Total Shots 14.3
5.21 Corners 4.37
60.3% Ball Possession 47.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

In knockout conditions, this fixture pairs Independ. Rivadavia's more proactive style and Fluminense's more cautious structure, which should make the margins especially important. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The first leg ended level at 1-1, so the tie remains finely balanced going into this match. In the previous meeting, Fluminense had more of the ball in the first leg (72% possession compared to 28%). Independ. Rivadavia carried the greater threat on target, finishing with 3 shots on goal compared to 2. Fluminense also attempted more passes (612 to 221) and completed 550. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Independ. Rivadavia. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Independ. Rivadavia look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Fluminense expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Independ. Rivadavia in 4-3-1-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Independ. Rivadavia having the stronger overall control. Independ. Rivadavia carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 16 points while Fluminense sit 2 on 8, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Fluminense Analysis

Fluminense come into this tie placed 2 in their league with 8 points from 6 matches. The return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 7:7 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking influence is driven by John Kennedy (2 goals), A. Canobbio (1 goals), Guilherme Arana (1 goals), with creative support from J. Savarino (1 assists), Martinelli (1 assists), and at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the return of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football identity still points toward a more cautious and defensive approach.

Independ. Rivadavia Analysis

Independ. Rivadavia enter this tie with a season profile built on 16 points from 6 matches, placing them 1 in their league. The return of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 0 defeats, together with a 15:6 goal balance, points toward very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking influence is driven by A. Arce (8 goals), S. Villa (3 goals), D. Crego (1 goals), with creative support from Matías Fernández (4 assists), S. Villa (3 assists), J. I. Florentin Bobadilla (1 assists), and at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Fluminense won 0 times, Independ. Rivadavia won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:3 from Fluminense's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96%)
Predicted formations: Fluminense 4-2-3-1 / Independ. Rivadavia 4-3-1-2
H2H summary: Fluminense wins 0, draws 1, Independ. Rivadavia wins 1
Stats
Fluminense Fluminense
Independ. Rivadavia Independ. Rivadavia
Shots on Goal
3
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
9
Shots off Goal
5
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
3
7 Corner Kicks 6
5 Fouls 14
0 Offsides 1
74% Ball Possession 26%
16 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Goal 3
9 Shots off Goal 5
4 Blocked Shots 3
8 Shots insidebox 8
8 Shots outsidebox 3
4 Goalkeeper Saves 3
667 Total passes 233
576 Passes accurate 157
0.70 expected_goals 0.44
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Fluminense
Formation
Independ. Rivadavia
Fábio
Fábio
Guga
Guga
Ignácio
Ignácio
Thiago Silva
Thiago Silva
Guilherme Arana
Guilherme Arana
Hércules
Hércules
Martinelli
Martinelli
Nonato
Nonato
Hulk
Hulk
Rodrigo Castillo
Rodrigo Castillo
Yeferson Soteldo
Yeferson Soteldo
Nicolás Bolcato
Nicolás Bolcato
Ezequiel Bonifacio
Ezequiel Bonifacio
Iván Villalba
Iván Villalba
Sheyko Studer
Sheyko Studer
Juan Manuel Elordi
Juan Manuel Elordi
Matías Fernández
Matías Fernández
Leonard Costa
Leonard Costa
Tomás Bottari
Tomás Bottari
Leonel Bucca
Leonel Bucca
Alex Arce
Alex Arce
Maximiliano Salas
Maximiliano Salas
Fluminense 4-3-3
Starting XI
1
Fábio
G
23
Guga
D
4
Ignácio
🟨 45'
D
3
Thiago Silva
D
13
Guilherme Arana
↓ 55'
D
35
Hércules
↓ 46'
M
8
Martinelli
M
16
Nonato
↓ 78' 🟨 70'
M
7
Hulk
↓ 62'
F
19
Rodrigo Castillo
↓ 46'
F
30
Yeferson Soteldo
↓ 78'
F
Substitutes
17
Agustín Canobbio
↑ 46'
F
32
Luciano Acosta
↑ 46'
M
6
Renê
↑ 55'
D
14
Germán Cano
↑ 62'
F
11
Jefferson Savarino
↑ 78'
F
10
Ganso
↑ 78'
M
27
Marcelo Pitaluga
G
44
Jemmes
D
21
Igor Rabello
D
2
Samuel Xavier
D
90
Kevin Serna
F
94
Otávio
M
Independ. Rivadavia 4-4-2
Starting XI
1
Nicolás Bolcato
G
36
Ezequiel Bonifacio
D
40
Iván Villalba
↓ 79'
D
42
Sheyko Studer
D
3
Juan Manuel Elordi
D
10
Matías Fernández
↓ 89'
M
2
Leonard Costa
↓ 66' 🟨 17'
M
5
Tomás Bottari
M
8
Leonel Bucca
↓ 66'
M
9
Alex Arce
↓ 90+5'
F
17
Maximiliano Salas
↓ 79'
F
Substitutes
11
Gonzalo Ríos
↑ 66'
M
32
Kevin Vázquez
↑ 66'
M
13
Alejo Osella
↑ 79'
D
28
Alex Vigo
↑ 79'
D
27
Diego Crego
↑ 89'
M
34
Stefano Moreyra
↑ 90+5'
M
21
Emmanuel Gómez
G
14
Luciano Gómez
D
23
Luis Díaz
F
19
Rodrigo Atencio
F
43
Fabrizio Sartori
F
7
Victorio Ramis
F
Last matches: Fluminense
09.08.26
Ser
Fluminense
Botafogo
1
1
D
30.07.26
Ser
Fluminense
Bahia
0
0
D
26.07.26
Ser
Fluminense
Gremio
1
1
D
17.07.26
Ser
Fluminense
RB Bragantino
1
1
D
12.07.26
Fri
Fluminense
Bahia
2
0
W
08.07.26
Fri
Fluminense
Nova Iguaçu
6
1
W
31.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Cruzeiro
1
1
D
28.05.26
CON
Fluminense
Deportivo La Guaira
3
1
W
23.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Mirassol
0
1
L
19.05.26
CON
Fluminense
Bolívar
2
1
W
16.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Sao Paulo
2
1
W
09.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Vitoria
2
2
D
07.05.26
CON
Fluminense
Independ. Rivadavia
1
1
D
03.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Internacional
0
2
L
30.04.26
CON
Fluminense
Bolívar
0
2
L
26.04.26
Ser
Fluminense
Chapecoense-sc
2
1
W
19.04.26
Ser
Fluminense
Santos
3
2
W
16.04.26
CON
Fluminense
Independ. Rivadavia
1
2
L
12.04.26
Ser
Fluminense
Flamengo
1
2
L
07.04.26
CON
Fluminense
Deportivo La Guaira
0
0
D
Last matches: Independ. Rivadavia
08.08.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
2
1
W
03.08.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Sarmiento Junin
1
2
L
30.07.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Huracan
2
1
W
26.07.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Atletico Tucuman
0
0
D
12.07.26
Cop
Independ. Rivadavia
Tigre
1
0
W
28.05.26
CON
Independ. Rivadavia
Bolívar
3
1
W
21.05.26
CON
Independ. Rivadavia
Deportivo La Guaira
4
2
W
10.05.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Union Santa Fe
1
2
L
07.05.26
CON
Independ. Rivadavia
Fluminense
1
1
D
03.05.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Aldosivi
1
1
D
30.04.26
CON
Independ. Rivadavia
Deportivo La Guaira
4
1
W
26.04.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Gimnasia M.
5
1
W
20.04.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Banfield
0
0
D
16.04.26
CON
Independ. Rivadavia
Fluminense
2
1
W
11.04.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Argentinos JRS
3
1
W
07.04.26
CON
Independ. Rivadavia
Bolívar
1
0
W
02.04.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Tigre
2
0
W
23.03.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Rosario Central
2
0
W
15.03.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Gimnasia L.P.
3
2
W
12.03.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Barracas Central
1
2
L
H2H: Fluminense vs Independ. Rivadavia
07.05.26
H2H
Independ. Rivadavia
Fluminense
1
1
D
16.04.26
H2H
Fluminense
Independ. Rivadavia
1
2
L
Last matches: Fluminense
30.07.26
Ser
Fluminense
Bahia
0
0
D
17.07.26
Ser
Fluminense
RB Bragantino
1
1
D
12.07.26
Fri
Fluminense
Bahia
2
0
W
08.07.26
Fri
Fluminense
Nova Iguaçu
6
1
W
28.05.26
CON
Fluminense
Deportivo La Guaira
3
1
W
19.05.26
CON
Fluminense
Bolívar
2
1
W
16.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Sao Paulo
2
1
W
09.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Vitoria
2
2
D
26.04.26
Ser
Fluminense
Chapecoense-sc
2
1
W
16.04.26
CON
Fluminense
Independ. Rivadavia
1
2
L
12.04.26
Ser
Fluminense
Flamengo
1
2
L
02.04.26
Ser
Fluminense
Corinthians
3
1
W
21.03.26
Ser
Fluminense
Atletico-MG
1
0
W
15.03.26
Ser
Fluminense
Atletico Paranaense
3
2
W
12.02.26
Ser
Fluminense
Botafogo
1
0
W
28.01.26
Ser
Fluminense
Gremio
2
1
W
H2H at home: Fluminense
16.04.26
H2H
Fluminense
Independ. Rivadavia
1
2
L
Last matches: Independ. Rivadavia
03.08.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Sarmiento Junin
1
2
L
26.07.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Atletico Tucuman
0
0
D
28.05.26
CON
Independ. Rivadavia
Bolívar
3
1
W
21.05.26
CON
Independ. Rivadavia
Deportivo La Guaira
4
2
W
03.05.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Aldosivi
1
1
D
20.04.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Banfield
0
0
D
16.04.26
CON
Independ. Rivadavia
Fluminense
2
1
W
02.04.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Tigre
2
0
W
15.03.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Gimnasia L.P.
3
2
W
26.02.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Racing Club
1
1
D
10.02.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
1
0
W
27.01.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Huracan
2
1
W
H2H away: Independ. Rivadavia
16.04.26
H2H
Fluminense
Independ. Rivadavia
1
2
W
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 5.42
Draw 3.52
Home 1.74
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 6.02
Draw 2.12
Home 2.45
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.50
Over 1.75 1.63
Over 2.0 1.86
Over 2.25 2.15
Over 2.5 2.46
Over 2.75 2.73
Over 3.5 4.60
Under 1.5 2.66
Under 1.75 2.33
Under 2.0 2.02
Under 2.25 1.73
Under 2.5 1.57
Under 2.75 1.48
Under 3.5 1.20
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.50
Draw 3.90
Home 1.73
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.50
Draw 2.10
Home 2.38
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.75
Draw 2.38
Home 2.10
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.07
Over 1.5 1.36
Over 2.5 2.20
Over 3.5 4.00
Over 4.5 9.00
Over 5.5 19.00
Over 6.5 41.00
Under 0.5 8.50
Under 1.5 3.00
Under 2.5 1.65
Under 3.5 1.22
Under 4.5 1.07
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 5.19
Draw 3.70
Home 1.73
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.60
Draw 2.06
Home 2.27
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 5.00
Draw 2.40
Home 2.05
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.02
Over 0.75 1.03
Over 1.0 1.05
Over 1.25 1.19
Over 1.5 1.34
Over 1.75 1.45
Over 2.0 1.60
Over 2.25 1.95
Over 2.5 2.22
Over 2.75 2.48
Over 3.0 3.16
Over 3.25 3.50
Over 3.5 3.84
Over 3.75 4.85
Over 4.0 6.95
Over 4.25 7.30
Over 4.5 7.70
Over 4.75 8.30
Over 5.0 9.90
Over 5.5 15.50
Over 6.5 41.00
Under 0.5 7.90
Under 0.75 7.29
Under 1.0 6.55
Under 1.25 3.76
Under 1.5 2.80
Under 1.75 2.50
Under 2.0 2.15
Under 2.25 1.89
Under 2.5 1.69
Under 2.75 1.45
Under 3.0 1.29
Under 3.25 1.22
Under 3.5 1.19
Under 3.75 1.11
Under 4.0 1.04
Under 4.25 1.03
Under 4.5 1.02
Under 4.75 1.02
Under 5.0 1.01
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 5.20
Draw 3.40
Home 1.71
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.10
Draw 2.02
Home 2.28
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.80
Draw 2.38
Home 2.14
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.07
Over 1.5 1.40
Over 1.75 1.52
Over 2.0 1.70
Over 2.25 2.00
Over 2.5 2.28
Over 2.75 2.70
Over 3.0 3.55
Over 3.25 4.00
Over 3.5 4.40
Over 4.5 9.50
Over 5.5 14.00
Under 0.5 8.00
Under 1.5 2.85
Under 1.75 2.48
Under 2.0 2.12
Under 2.25 1.79
Under 2.5 1.60
Under 2.75 1.45
Under 3.0 1.28
Under 3.25 1.23
Under 3.5 1.19
Under 4.5 1.04
Under 5.5 1.01

Standings

Group C
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 5 1 0 15:6 9 16
W W D W W
2 6 2 2 2 7:7 0 8
W W D L L
3 6 1 2 3 6:8 -2 5
L L D W D
4 6 0 3 3 6:13 -7 3
L L D L D
Copa Sudamericana 1/16-finals