WORLD CONMEBOL LIBERTADORES
11.08.2026 22:00
Estádio do Maracanã
Referee: C. Garay
Fluminense
Match Timeline
Independ. Rivadavia
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
17'
Leonard Costa
Independ. Rivadavia
🟨
45'
Ignácio
Fluminense
🔄
46'
Hercules ↔ L. Acosta
Fluminense
🔄
46'
R. Castillo ↔ A. Canobbio
Fluminense
🔄
55'
Guilherme Arana ↔ Rene
Fluminense
🔄
61'
Hulk ↔ G. Cano
Fluminense
🔄
66'
L. Bucca ↔ G. Rios
Independ. Rivadavia
🔄
66'
L. Costa ↔ K. A. Vazquez
Independ. Rivadavia
🟨
70'
Nonato
Fluminense
🔄
78'
Nonato ↔ PH Ganso
Fluminense
🔄
78'
Y. Soteldo ↔ J. Savarino
Fluminense
🔄
78'
I. Villalba ↔ A. Osella
Independ. Rivadavia
🔄
79'
M. Salas ↔ A. Vigo
Independ. Rivadavia
🔄
89'
M. Fernandez ↔ D. Crego
Independ. Rivadavia
🔄
90+5'
A. Arce ↔ S. Moreyra
Independ. Rivadavia

Fluminense vs Independ. Rivadavia Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 53.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 63.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
53.2%
-
BTTS Yes
63.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Fluminense Win 53.2%
Draw 4%
Independ. Rivadavia Win 42.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Fluminense1.29
Independ. Rivadavia1.55
Recent Form (Last 5)
Fluminense Fluminense
WWDLW
46 GF / 34 GA
Independ. Rivadavia Independ. Rivadavia
WLDWL
53 GF / 27 GA
Key Stats
1.53
Average Goals Scored
1.83
1.13
Average Goals Conceded
0.93
21
BTTS Yes
20
14
Over 2.5
16
5.54
Shots on Goal
5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Fluminense Fluminense 30 matches
Independ. Rivadavia Independ. Rivadavia 29 matches
Fluminense Statistic Independ. Rivadavia
13 Wins 19
10 Draws 6
7 Losses 4
46 Goals For 53
34 Goals Against 27
1.53 Avg Goals Scored 1.83
1.13 Avg Goals Conceded 0.93
21 BTTS Yes 20
25 Over 1.5 23
14 Over 2.5 16
7 Over 3.5 7
6 Clean Sheets 8
5 Failed To Score 3
5.54 Shots On Goal 5
15.07 Total Shots 14.3
5.21 Corners 4.37
60.3% Ball Possession 47.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

In knockout conditions, this fixture pairs Independ. Rivadavia's more proactive style and Fluminense's more cautious structure, which should make the margins especially important. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The first leg ended level at 1-1, so the tie remains finely balanced going into this match. In the previous meeting, Fluminense had more of the ball in the first leg (72% possession compared to 28%). Independ. Rivadavia carried the greater threat on target, finishing with 3 shots on goal compared to 2. Fluminense also attempted more passes (612 to 221) and completed 550. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Independ. Rivadavia. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Independ. Rivadavia look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Fluminense expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Independ. Rivadavia in 4-3-1-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Independ. Rivadavia having the stronger overall control. Independ. Rivadavia carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 16 points while Fluminense sit 2 on 8, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Fluminense Analysis

Fluminense come into this tie placed 2 in their league with 8 points from 6 matches. The return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 7:7 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking influence is driven by John Kennedy (2 goals), A. Canobbio (1 goals), Guilherme Arana (1 goals), with creative support from J. Savarino (1 assists), Martinelli (1 assists), and at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the return of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football identity still points toward a more cautious and defensive approach.

Independ. Rivadavia Analysis

Independ. Rivadavia enter this tie with a season profile built on 16 points from 6 matches, placing them 1 in their league. The return of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 0 defeats, together with a 15:6 goal balance, points toward very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking influence is driven by A. Arce (8 goals), S. Villa (3 goals), D. Crego (1 goals), with creative support from Matías Fernández (4 assists), S. Villa (3 assists), J. I. Florentin Bobadilla (1 assists), and at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Fluminense won 0 times, Independ. Rivadavia won 1 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:4 from Fluminense's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 1.75 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96%)
Predicted formations: Fluminense 4-2-3-1 / Independ. Rivadavia 4-3-1-2
H2H summary: Fluminense wins 0, draws 3, Independ. Rivadavia wins 1

Standings

Group C
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 5 1 0 15:6 9 16
W W D W W
2 6 2 2 2 7:7 0 8
W W D L L
3 6 1 2 3 6:8 -2 5
L L D W D
4 6 0 3 3 6:13 -7 3
L L D L D
Copa Sudamericana 1/16-finals