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COLOMBIA › PRIMERA A
18.10.2026 23:05
Estadio Manuel Calle Lombana
Referee: Jhon Ospina

Llaneros vs Santa Fe Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 63.9%
Odds 2.64
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds 1.83
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 2.26
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
63.9%
2.64 ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
1.83 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
2.26 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.24 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
6.00 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
10.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Llaneros Win 31.6%
Draw 4.6%
Santa Fe Win 63.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Llaneros1.02
Santa Fe1.35
Recent Form (Last 5)
Llaneros Llaneros
WWDLW
32 GF / 38 GA
Santa Fe Santa Fe
WLDWL
62 GF / 46 GA
Key Stats
0.97
Average Goals Scored
1.48
1.15
Average Goals Conceded
1.1
17
BTTS Yes
29
10
Over 2.5
20
3.81
Shots on Goal
4.66

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Llaneros Llaneros 33 matches
Santa Fe Santa Fe 42 matches
Llaneros Statistic Santa Fe
8 Wins 16
12 Draws 17
13 Losses 9
32 Goals For 62
38 Goals Against 46
0.97 Avg Goals Scored 1.48
1.15 Avg Goals Conceded 1.1
17 BTTS Yes 29
24 Over 1.5 33
10 Over 2.5 20
4 Over 3.5 11
9 Clean Sheets 9
9 Failed To Score 6
3.81 Shots On Goal 4.66
10.53 Total Shots 12.34
4.91 Corners 4.61
46.1% Ball Possession 46.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Santa Fe's more proactive style and Llaneros's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Santa Fe. Santa Fe look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Llaneros expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Santa Fe in 4-4-1-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Santa Fe having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Llaneros Analysis

Llaneros approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 22 points from 19 matches. Their record of 4 wins, 10 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 17:20, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through N. Ospina (6 goals), J. Vásquez (6 goals), F. Meza (3 goals), with creative support from N. Ospina (4 assists), J. Ramírez (4 assists), J. Vásquez (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 1 wins, 7 draws, and 1 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Santa Fe Analysis

Santa Fe are currently 7 in the standings with 29 points from 19 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 8 draws, and 4 losses, while the 29:22 goal ratio supports the view of very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Going forward they rely heavily on H. Rodallega (14 goals), N. Bustos (11 goals), Omar Fernández (5 goals), with creative support from Omar Fernández (8 assists), N. Bustos (5 assists), F. Fagúndez (4 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Llaneros won 2 times, Santa Fe won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:2 from Llaneros's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.4%)
Predicted formations: Llaneros 4-1-4-1 / Santa Fe 4-4-1-1
H2H summary: Llaneros wins 2, draws 0, Santa Fe wins 1

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
W D W D L
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
D D L L W
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
D L W W D
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
L W W D L
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
W D L L W
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
L D D D D
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
W W L W W
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
D D D L L
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
D W W W W
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
W D D D W
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
W L D L W
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
D D W L L
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
D W W W D
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
L L L W L
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
D D D L D
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
L W L L L
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
D L W L W
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
L L D W L
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
W W W L L
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
D D L L D
Post season qualification