ESTONIA MEISTRILIIGA
29.08.2026 14:00
Kuressaare Linnastaadion
Referee: J. Frischer
Kuressaare
Match Timeline
Vaprus
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
24'
S. Kapper · Assist: S. Viidas
Vaprus
🟨
41'
M. Limberg
Vaprus
🟨
41'
M. Lukka
Kuressaare
45'
E. Demidov
Kuressaare
🔄
46'
S. Viidas ↔ J. Poder
Vaprus
51'
A. Visse
Kuressaare
🟨
52'
E. Demidov
Kuressaare
🔄
64'
A. Visse ↔ A. Kivi
Kuressaare
74'
M. Limberg · Assist: H. Valja
Vaprus
🔄
81'
E. Demidov ↔ A. Svedovski
Kuressaare
🔄
81'
D. Andreas ↔ R. Tarkmeel
Kuressaare

Kuressaare vs Vaprus Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 53%
Odds 2.16
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds 1.57
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.68
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
53%
2.16
BTTS Yes
86%
1.57
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.68
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
3.20
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.40
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.50
Probability Distribution
Kuressaare Win 53%
Draw 11.9%
Vaprus Win 35.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Kuressaare1.52
Vaprus1.8
Recent Form (Last 5)
Kuressaare Kuressaare
WWDLW
36 GF / 56 GA
Vaprus Vaprus
WLDWL
50 GF / 56 GA
Key Stats
1.24
Average Goals Scored
1.72
1.93
Average Goals Conceded
1.93
16
BTTS Yes
19
17
Over 2.5
20
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Kuressaare Kuressaare 29 matches
Vaprus Vaprus 29 matches
Kuressaare Statistic Vaprus
8 Wins 10
5 Draws 4
16 Losses 15
36 Goals For 50
56 Goals Against 56
1.24 Avg Goals Scored 1.72
1.93 Avg Goals Conceded 1.93
16 BTTS Yes 19
21 Over 1.5 25
17 Over 2.5 20
11 Over 3.5 13
3 Clean Sheets 6
12 Failed To Score 6
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Vaprus having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Vaprus. Vaprus arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.

Kuressaare Analysis

So far, Kuressaare have built a campaign that leaves them 9 in the table on 24 points from 23 matches. The record of 7 wins, 3 draws, and 13 defeats, together with a 25:38 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, their split return of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Vaprus Analysis

Vaprus sit 6 with 27 points after 22 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 8 wins, 3 draws, and 11 losses, together with goals at 30:42, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 3 wins, 1 draws, and 7 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Kuressaare won 5 times, Vaprus won 8 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:29 from Kuressaare's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.07 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.1%)
Predicted formations: Kuressaare 4-2-3-1 / Vaprus 3-4-1-2
H2H summary: Kuressaare wins 5, draws 2, Vaprus wins 8

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 21 5 1 74:20 54 68
W W W W W
2 28 17 1 10 56:37 19 52
W D W W L
3 28 14 5 9 49:26 23 47
W L L L L
4 27 13 6 8 43:35 8 45
L W L W W
5 27 14 2 11 36:38 -2 44
W L W L W
6 28 11 1 16 40:47 -7 34
W L L W W
7 27 10 4 13 37:52 -15 34
L W W D L
8 28 9 1 18 46:65 -19 28
L W L L L
9 28 8 4 16 31:49 -18 28
L L W D L
10 28 5 3 20 21:64 -43 18
L D L L L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga