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JAPAN › J1 LEAGUE
24.10.2026 06:00
Mercari Stadium

Kashima vs Kashiwa Reysol Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 87.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
87.3%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Kashima Win 41.9%
Draw 12.7%
Kashiwa Reysol Win 45.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Kashima1.94
Kashiwa Reysol1.96
Recent Form (Last 5)
Kashima Kashima
WWDLW
21 GF / 16 GA
Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol
WLDWL
22 GF / 17 GA
Key Stats
2.1
Average Goals Scored
2.2
1.6
Average Goals Conceded
1.7
6
BTTS Yes
7
6
Over 2.5
7
4.4
Shots on Goal
5.2

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Kashima Kashima 10 matches
Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 10 matches
Kashima Statistic Kashiwa Reysol
6 Wins 7
1 Draws 0
3 Losses 3
21 Goals For 22
16 Goals Against 17
2.1 Avg Goals Scored 2.2
1.6 Avg Goals Conceded 1.7
6 BTTS Yes 7
9 Over 1.5 9
6 Over 2.5 7
4 Over 3.5 6
3 Clean Sheets 1
1 Failed To Score 2
4.4 Shots On Goal 5.2
15.1 Total Shots 15.4
3.5 Corners 5.7
56.8% Ball Possession 58.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Kashiwa Reysol. Kashiwa Reysol carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 21 points while Kashima sit 6 on 16, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Kashima expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Kashiwa Reysol in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Kashiwa Reysol having the stronger overall control. Kashima have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Kashima Analysis

Kashima approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 6 with 16 points from 9 matches. The overall return of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats with a 19:16 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Léo Ceará (9 goals), A. Čavrić (4 goals), Y. Suzuki (1 goals), with creative support from Y. Suzuki (2 assists), Y. Matsumura (2 assists), Yan Matheus (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

Kashiwa Reysol Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 21 points from 9 games, Kashiwa Reysol bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 7 wins, 0 draws, and 2 defeats plus a goal balance of 21:14, they continue to show good form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by Y. Segawa (5 goals), Y. Koizumi (2 goals), T. Kubo (2 goals), with creative support from Masa (4 assists), Y. Koizumi (3 assists), Y. Segawa (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have managed 4 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Kashima won 9 times, Kashiwa Reysol won 3 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:15 from Kashima's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.4 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.3%)
Predicted formations: Kashima 4-4-2 / Kashiwa Reysol 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Kashima wins 9, draws 3, Kashiwa Reysol wins 3

Standings

J-League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 25:6 19 23
W W W W L
2 10 7 2 1 25:10 15 23
W W L D W
3 10 7 2 1 21:8 13 23
W W W W W
4 10 7 1 2 17:9 8 22
W L W W W
5 10 7 0 3 22:17 5 21
L W W W L
6 10 6 1 3 21:16 5 19
W W D L L
7 10 4 4 2 21:16 5 16
W L D W W
8 10 4 4 2 13:9 4 16
D D W D W
9 10 5 0 5 17:21 -4 15
W L W L W
10 10 4 2 4 10:11 -1 14
D W W W L
11 10 4 1 5 12:15 -3 13
L L L W W
12 10 4 0 6 12:16 -4 12
W W L L L
13 10 3 3 4 9:16 -7 12
L D D L D
14 10 2 3 5 12:14 -2 9
L L L L D
15 10 2 3 5 11:18 -7 9
L D D W L
16 10 2 2 6 11:19 -8 8
L L W L L
17 10 2 1 7 11:16 -5 7
L W L L D
18 10 1 4 5 10:18 -8 7
D L L L L
19 10 1 3 6 8:19 -11 6
D D L D W
20 10 0 4 6 4:18 -14 4
L L L D D
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - J2 League