BRAZIL SERIE A
--.--.---- --:--
Referee: L. Casagrande

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 55.4%
Odds 3.78
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 1.75
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds 2.05
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
55.4%
3.78
BTTS Yes
71.2%
1.75
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
2.05
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
75.7%
1.41
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
7.50
Correct Score 1-2
-
13.00
Probability Distribution
Internacional Win 36.9%
Draw 7.8%
Atletico-MG Win 55.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Internacional1.12
Atletico-MG1.3
Recent Form (Last 5)
Internacional Internacional
WWDLW
24 GF / 28 GA
Atletico-MG Atletico-MG
WLDWL
30 GF / 27 GA
Key Stats
1.04
Average Goals Scored
1.36
1.22
Average Goals Conceded
1.23
13
BTTS Yes
10
8
Over 2.5
11
4.57
Shots on Goal
4.18

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Internacional Internacional 23 matches
Atletico-MG Atletico-MG 22 matches
Internacional Statistic Atletico-MG
5 Wins 9
9 Draws 5
9 Losses 8
24 Goals For 30
28 Goals Against 27
1.04 Avg Goals Scored 1.36
1.22 Avg Goals Conceded 1.23
13 BTTS Yes 10
17 Over 1.5 15
8 Over 2.5 11
5 Over 3.5 7
5 Clean Sheets 5
7 Failed To Score 7
4.57 Shots On Goal 4.18
14.91 Total Shots 12.64
6.48 Corners 4.68
48.7% Ball Possession 45.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Atletico-MG. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Internacional expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Atletico-MG in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Atletico-MG having the stronger overall control. Internacional have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Internacional Analysis

Internacional sit 16 with 23 points after 22 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 5 wins, 8 draws, and 9 losses, together with goals at 23:27, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Johan Carbonero (5 goals), Alexandro Bernabei (4 goals), Alerrandro (3 goals), with creative support from Johan Carbonero (3 assists), Alerrandro (3 assists), Vitinho (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Atletico-MG Analysis

From their first 21 matches, Atletico-MG have collected 29 points and now occupy 11 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses, while the 27:27 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Victor Hugo (4 goals), Bernard (2 goals), Alan Minda (2 goals), with creative support from Hulk (3 assists), Bernard (2 assists), Alan Minda (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 1 draws, and 7 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Internacional won 5 times, Atletico-MG won 8 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:18 from Internacional's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.2 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.2%)
Predicted formations: Internacional 3-4-2-1 / Atletico-MG 4-3-3
Missing players: Internacional 6, Atletico-MG 7
H2H summary: Internacional wins 5, draws 2, Atletico-MG wins 8
Last matches: Internacional
17.08.26
Ser
Internacional
Remo
1
1
D
09.08.26
Ser
Internacional
Palmeiras
0
0
D
29.07.26
Ser
Internacional
Flamengo
1
1
D
25.07.26
Ser
Internacional
Atletico Paranaense
0
2
L
23.07.26
Ser
Internacional
Cruzeiro
1
2
L
31.05.26
Ser
Internacional
RB Bragantino
1
3
L
23.05.26
Ser
Internacional
Vitoria
0
2
L
16.05.26
Ser
Internacional
Vasco DA Gama
4
1
W
09.05.26
Ser
Internacional
Coritiba
2
2
D
03.05.26
Ser
Internacional
Fluminense
2
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
Internacional
Botafogo
2
2
D
19.04.26
Ser
Internacional
Mirassol
1
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Internacional
Gremio
0
0
D
05.04.26
Ser
Internacional
Corinthians
1
0
W
01.04.26
Ser
Internacional
Sao Paulo
1
1
D
22.03.26
Ser
Internacional
Chapecoense-sc
2
0
W
19.03.26
Ser
Internacional
Santos
2
1
W
15.03.26
Ser
Internacional
Bahia
0
1
L
11.03.26
Ser
Internacional
Atletico-MG
0
1
L
25.02.26
Ser
Internacional
Remo
1
1
D
Last matches: Atletico-MG
16.08.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Gremio
3
0
W
08.08.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Remo
2
2
D
26.07.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Palmeiras
2
1
W
21.07.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Bahia
1
1
D
31.05.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Vasco DA Gama
1
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Corinthians
0
1
L
16.05.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Mirassol
3
1
W
10.05.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Botafogo
1
1
D
03.05.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Cruzeiro
3
1
W
26.04.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Flamengo
0
4
L
19.04.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Coritiba
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Santos
0
1
L
05.04.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Atletico Paranaense
2
1
W
02.04.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Chapecoense-sc
4
0
W
21.03.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Fluminense
0
1
L
18.03.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Sao Paulo
1
0
W
14.03.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Vitoria
0
2
L
11.03.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Internacional
1
0
W
26.02.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Gremio
1
2
L
11.02.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Remo
3
3
D
H2H: Internacional vs Atletico-MG
11.03.26
H2H
Atletico-MG
Internacional
1
0
L
02.11.25
H2H
Internacional
Atletico-MG
0
0
D
13.06.25
H2H
Atletico-MG
Internacional
2
0
L
26.10.24
H2H
Atletico-MG
Internacional
1
3
W
27.06.24
H2H
Internacional
Atletico-MG
1
2
L
01.10.23
H2H
Internacional
Atletico-MG
0
2
L
14.05.23
H2H
Atletico-MG
Internacional
2
0
L
31.07.22
H2H
Internacional
Atletico-MG
3
0
W
10.04.22
H2H
Atletico-MG
Internacional
2
0
L
03.10.21
H2H
Atletico-MG
Internacional
1
0
L
16.06.21
H2H
Internacional
Atletico-MG
0
1
L
06.12.20
H2H
Atletico-MG
Internacional
2
2
D
23.08.20
H2H
Internacional
Atletico-MG
1
0
W
08.12.19
H2H
Internacional
Atletico-MG
2
1
W
15.09.19
H2H
Atletico-MG
Internacional
1
3
W
Last matches: Internacional
17.08.26
Ser
Internacional
Remo
1
1
D
29.07.26
Ser
Internacional
Flamengo
1
1
D
23.07.26
Ser
Internacional
Cruzeiro
1
2
L
16.05.26
Ser
Internacional
Vasco DA Gama
4
1
W
03.05.26
Ser
Internacional
Fluminense
2
0
W
19.04.26
Ser
Internacional
Mirassol
1
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Internacional
Gremio
0
0
D
01.04.26
Ser
Internacional
Sao Paulo
1
1
D
22.03.26
Ser
Internacional
Chapecoense-sc
2
0
W
15.03.26
Ser
Internacional
Bahia
0
1
L
13.02.26
Ser
Internacional
Palmeiras
1
3
L
28.01.26
Ser
Internacional
Atletico Paranaense
0
1
L
H2H at home: Internacional
02.11.25
H2H
Internacional
Atletico-MG
0
0
D
27.06.24
H2H
Internacional
Atletico-MG
1
2
L
01.10.23
H2H
Internacional
Atletico-MG
0
2
L
31.07.22
H2H
Internacional
Atletico-MG
3
0
W
16.06.21
H2H
Internacional
Atletico-MG
0
1
L
23.08.20
H2H
Internacional
Atletico-MG
1
0
W
08.12.19
H2H
Internacional
Atletico-MG
2
1
W
Last matches: Atletico-MG
08.08.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Remo
2
2
D
26.07.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Palmeiras
2
1
W
31.05.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Vasco DA Gama
1
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Corinthians
0
1
L
03.05.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Cruzeiro
3
1
W
19.04.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Coritiba
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Santos
0
1
L
02.04.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Chapecoense-sc
4
0
W
21.03.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Fluminense
0
1
L
14.03.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Vitoria
0
2
L
26.02.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Gremio
1
2
L
04.02.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
RB Bragantino
0
1
L
H2H away: Atletico-MG
02.11.25
H2H
Internacional
Atletico-MG
0
0
D
27.06.24
H2H
Internacional
Atletico-MG
1
2
W
01.10.23
H2H
Internacional
Atletico-MG
0
2
W
31.07.22
H2H
Internacional
Atletico-MG
3
0
L
16.06.21
H2H
Internacional
Atletico-MG
0
1
W
23.08.20
H2H
Internacional
Atletico-MG
1
0
L
08.12.19
H2H
Internacional
Atletico-MG
2
1
L
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.78
Draw 3.18
Home 2.13
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.30
Draw 2.20
Home 2.72
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.34
Over 1.75 1.42
Over 2.0 1.54
Over 2.25 1.81
Over 2.5 2.05
Over 2.75 2.34
Over 3.0 2.67
Over 3.5 3.55
Over 4.5 7.17
Under 1.5 3.28
Under 1.75 2.91
Under 2.0 2.51
Under 2.25 2.05
Under 2.5 1.79
Under 2.75 1.61
Under 3.0 1.48
Under 3.5 1.30
Under 4.5 1.10
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.75
Draw 3.10
Home 2.15
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.00
Draw 2.20
Home 2.75
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.60
Draw 2.40
Home 2.38
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.07
Over 1.5 1.33
Over 2.5 2.05
Over 3.5 3.50
Over 4.5 7.00
Over 5.5 15.00
Over 6.5 29.00
Over 7.5 51.00
Under 0.5 9.00
Under 1.5 3.40
Under 2.5 1.75
Under 3.5 1.30
Under 4.5 1.10
Under 5.5 1.03
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.72
Draw 3.27
Home 2.14
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.30
Draw 2.00
Home 2.69
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.84
Draw 2.40
Home 2.40
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.03
Over 0.75 1.04
Over 1.0 1.05
Over 1.25 1.17
Over 1.5 1.29
Over 1.75 1.38
Over 2.0 1.49
Over 2.25 1.80
Over 2.5 2.04
Over 2.75 2.32
Over 3.0 2.69
Over 3.25 2.94
Over 3.5 3.24
Over 3.75 4.00
Over 4.0 5.45
Over 4.25 5.75
Over 4.5 6.10
Over 5.0 10.00
Over 5.5 13.00
Over 6.5 26.00
Over 7.5 50.00
Under 0.5 7.50
Under 0.75 6.99
Under 1.0 6.45
Under 1.25 4.01
Under 1.5 3.05
Under 1.75 2.74
Under 2.0 2.38
Under 2.25 2.05
Under 2.5 1.81
Under 2.75 1.64
Under 3.0 1.39
Under 3.25 1.31
Under 3.5 1.26
Under 3.75 1.17
Under 4.0 1.08
Under 4.25 1.07
Under 4.5 1.06
Under 5.0 1.01
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.50
Draw 3.30
Home 2.07
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.10
Draw 2.10
Home 2.70
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.60
Draw 2.45
Home 2.45
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.05
Over 1.5 1.33
Over 1.75 1.43
Over 2.0 1.56
Over 2.25 1.82
Over 2.5 2.07
Over 2.75 2.43
Over 3.0 3.05
Over 3.25 3.45
Over 3.5 3.85
Over 4.5 8.00
Under 0.5 9.50
Under 1.5 3.20
Under 1.75 2.80
Under 2.0 2.43
Under 2.25 1.97
Under 2.5 1.72
Under 2.75 1.56
Under 3.0 1.37
Under 3.25 1.30
Under 3.5 1.25
Under 4.5 1.07

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 23 14 6 3 40:19 21 48
L D W L W
2 22 13 6 3 44:19 25 45
W W D D W
3 23 12 5 6 31:20 11 41
D W D W W
4 23 10 8 5 34:28 6 38
W D D D D
5 23 10 6 7 32:32 0 36
W W W L W
6 23 8 10 5 32:28 4 34
D D D D D
7 22 9 5 8 27:23 4 32
D L D D W
8 22 9 5 8 30:27 3 32
W D W D W
9 23 8 8 7 25:22 3 32
L W D D W
10 23 8 7 8 28:30 -2 31
D W L D L
11 22 8 6 8 35:34 1 30
L D W D W
12 23 8 5 10 23:33 -10 29
W L L L D
13 22 7 6 9 27:26 1 27
D L D L L
14 22 6 7 9 32:35 -3 25
W L D L W
15 22 6 7 9 24:30 -6 25
L W D L L
16 23 5 9 9 24:28 -4 24
D D D L L
17 22 6 5 11 25:35 -10 23
L L W D W
18 23 5 8 10 27:37 -10 23
D D L W L
19 22 5 7 10 23:34 -11 22
L D D L L
20 22 1 8 13 23:46 -23 11
D L D L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B

Missing Players

Internacional 6 missing
-
S. Rochet
Missing Fixture Lower Back Injury
OUT
-
Matheus Bahia
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
-
Victor Gabriel
Missing Fixture Red Card
OUT
-
B. Arhin
Questionable Hamstring Injury
OUT
-
Joao Victor
Questionable Muscle Injury
OUT
-
Kayky
Missing Fixture Ankle Injury
OUT
Atletico-MG 7 missing
-
L. Duarte
Missing Fixture Hamstring Injury
OUT
-
Lyanco
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
A. Preciado
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
-
Gustavo Scarpa
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
Igor Gomes
Questionable Injury
OUT
-
Indio
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
Patrick Silva
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT