BRAZIL SERIE A
22.08.2026 21:30
Estádio Beira-Rio
Referee: Lucas Casagrande, Brazil
Internacional
Match Timeline
Atletico-MG
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
46'
Bernard ↔ Fred
Atletico-MG
🔄
46'
T. Perez ↔ K. Castano
Atletico-MG
🟨
48'
Bruno Gomes
Internacional
🟨
62'
Fred
Atletico-MG
🔄
64'
R. Lodi ↔ Dudu
Atletico-MG
🔄
66'
Ruan Tressoldi ↔ Vitor Hugo
Atletico-MG
🟨
69'
Kauã Pascini
Atletico-MG
🟨
72'
Rodrigo Villagra
Internacional
🔄
77'
Matheus Cunha ↔ Anthoni
Internacional
🔄
78'
J. Carbonero ↔ N. Eliasson
Internacional
🔄
78'
Bruno Henrique ↔ Paulinho Paula
Internacional
🔄
81'
M. Cisse ↔ A. Franco
Atletico-MG
🟨
90+10'
Guillermo Maripán
Internacional
🟨
90+9'
Gabriel Mercado
Internacional
🟨
90+9'
Paulinho Paula
Internacional
🟨
90+10'
Kevin Castaño
Atletico-MG
🔄
90+2'
Bruno Gomes ↔ Juninho
Internacional
🔄
90+2'
Alan Patrick ↔ Allex
Internacional

Internacional vs Atletico-MG Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 55.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
55.4%
-
BTTS Yes
71.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
75.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Internacional Win 36.9%
Draw 7.8%
Atletico-MG Win 55.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Internacional1.12
Atletico-MG1.3
Recent Form (Last 5)
Internacional Internacional
WWDLW
24 GF / 28 GA
Atletico-MG Atletico-MG
WLDWL
30 GF / 27 GA
Key Stats
1.04
Average Goals Scored
1.36
1.22
Average Goals Conceded
1.23
13
BTTS Yes
10
8
Over 2.5
11
4.57
Shots on Goal
4.36

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Internacional Internacional 23 matches
Atletico-MG Atletico-MG 22 matches
Internacional Statistic Atletico-MG
5 Wins 9
9 Draws 5
9 Losses 8
24 Goals For 30
28 Goals Against 27
1.04 Avg Goals Scored 1.36
1.22 Avg Goals Conceded 1.23
13 BTTS Yes 10
17 Over 1.5 15
8 Over 2.5 11
5 Over 3.5 7
5 Clean Sheets 5
7 Failed To Score 7
4.57 Shots On Goal 4.36
14.91 Total Shots 13.36
6.48 Corners 4.95
48.7% Ball Possession 48.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Atletico-MG. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Internacional expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Atletico-MG in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Atletico-MG having the stronger overall control. Internacional have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Internacional Analysis

Internacional sit 16 with 23 points after 22 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 5 wins, 8 draws, and 9 losses, together with goals at 23:27, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Johan Carbonero (5 goals), Alexandro Bernabei (4 goals), Alerrandro (3 goals), with creative support from Johan Carbonero (3 assists), Alerrandro (3 assists), Vitinho (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Atletico-MG Analysis

From their first 21 matches, Atletico-MG have collected 29 points and now occupy 11 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses, while the 27:27 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Victor Hugo (4 goals), Bernard (2 goals), Alan Minda (2 goals), with creative support from Hulk (3 assists), Bernard (2 assists), Alan Minda (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 1 draws, and 7 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Internacional won 4 times, Atletico-MG won 8 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:17 from Internacional's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 1.93 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.2%)
Predicted formations: Internacional 3-4-2-1 / Atletico-MG 4-3-3
Missing players: Internacional 6, Atletico-MG 7
H2H summary: Internacional wins 4, draws 3, Atletico-MG wins 8

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 17 6 4 53:22 31 57
W W W W L
2 28 16 9 3 47:21 26 57
D W D D W
3 28 13 9 6 44:36 8 48
W L W D W
4 27 13 7 7 41:31 10 46
D L D W D
5 27 12 10 5 42:33 9 46
W W W W D
6 28 13 6 9 42:40 2 45
W L W L W
7 27 11 7 9 36:32 4 40
D W L W D
8 27 10 8 9 41:40 1 38
W W W W D
9 28 10 8 10 37:43 -6 38
L D L W W
10 26 10 6 10 32:29 3 36
D L L W D
11 27 10 6 11 32:30 2 36
W L W W L
12 28 9 8 11 41:45 -4 35
L W D D L
13 28 9 6 13 28:42 -14 33
L D W L L
14 28 8 8 12 29:32 -3 32
L L L L L
15 28 8 8 12 33:42 -9 32
W D W L D
16 27 8 7 12 34:41 -7 31
W W L W L
17 28 7 8 13 30:38 -8 29
D L L L W
18 28 6 10 12 30:36 -6 28
L W L L D
19 28 5 8 15 32:47 -15 23
L L L L L
20 27 3 9 15 29:53 -24 18
D L W L W
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B