12.09.2026 17:45
Estadio Juan Bautista Gargantini

Independ. Rivadavia vs Aldosivi Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 76.9%
Odds 1.47
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds 2.25
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds 2.12
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
76.9%
1.47
BTTS Yes
58.8%
2.25
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
2.12
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
81.5%
1.26
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.25
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
Independ. Rivadavia Win 76.9%
Draw 3.9%
Aldosivi Win 19.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Independ. Rivadavia1.51
Aldosivi0.82
Recent Form (Last 5)
Independ. Rivadavia Independ. Rivadavia
WWDLW
60 GF / 34 GA
Aldosivi Aldosivi
WLDWL
20 GF / 34 GA
Key Stats
1.67
Average Goals Scored
0.74
0.94
Average Goals Conceded
1.26
23
BTTS Yes
13
18
Over 2.5
9
4.88
Shots on Goal
3.13

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Independ. Rivadavia Independ. Rivadavia 36 matches
Aldosivi Aldosivi 27 matches
Independ. Rivadavia Statistic Aldosivi
21 Wins 3
9 Draws 10
6 Losses 14
60 Goals For 20
34 Goals Against 34
1.67 Avg Goals Scored 0.74
0.94 Avg Goals Conceded 1.26
23 BTTS Yes 13
28 Over 1.5 18
18 Over 2.5 9
9 Over 3.5 5
11 Clean Sheets 6
6 Failed To Score 13
4.88 Shots On Goal 3.13
13.85 Total Shots 11.54
4.27 Corners 4.08
46.5% Ball Possession 42.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Independ. Rivadavia's more proactive style and Aldosivi's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Aldosivi. Aldosivi arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Independ. Rivadavia arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 34 points compared to Aldosivi in 14 on 8, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Independ. Rivadavia expected to line up in 4-3-1-2 and Aldosivi in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Aldosivi having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Independ. Rivadavia Analysis

Independ. Rivadavia come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 1 with 34 points from 16 matches. Their overall return of 10 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 29:15 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by A. Arce (5 goals), F. Sartori (3 goals), Leonel Bucca (3 goals), with creative support from Sebastián Villa (4 assists), Matías Fernández (3 assists), L. Costa (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split return of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses fits a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Aldosivi Analysis

With 8 points from 16 games and a place of 14, Aldosivi still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 0 wins, 8 draws, and 8 defeats with a 6:19 goal balance points toward poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Going forward they depend heavily on Andrés Vombergar (2 goals), Fernando Román (1 goals), Alan Sosa (1 goals), with creative support from Fernando Román (1 assists), Alan Sosa (1 assists), Tomás Fernández (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 1 draws, and 7 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Independ. Rivadavia won 7 times, Aldosivi won 2 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:12 from Independ. Rivadavia's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.31 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.2%)
Predicted formations: Independ. Rivadavia 4-3-1-2 / Aldosivi 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Independ. Rivadavia wins 7, draws 4, Aldosivi wins 2

Standings

Apertura - Group B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 10 4 2 29:15 14 34
L W D L W
2 16 9 2 5 22:12 10 29
W W D W L
3 16 8 5 3 17:13 4 29
D W D L W
4 16 8 4 4 20:16 4 28
D L D W W
5 16 7 5 4 17:13 4 26
D D L W W
6 16 8 2 6 19:19 0 26
W W L L W
7 16 5 7 4 17:13 4 22
D D D L W
8 16 5 6 5 17:15 2 21
L L D L L
9 16 5 6 5 15:15 0 21
D D L L L
10 16 4 8 4 18:15 3 20
L D W D W
11 16 6 1 9 13:20 -7 19
W L W W W
12 16 5 3 8 17:19 -2 18
L L L W L
13 16 3 5 8 15:20 -5 14
W D D W L
14 16 0 8 8 6:19 -13 8
W L L D L
15 16 1 2 13 5:24 -19 5
L D D L L
Knockout Phase