BRAZIL SERIE A
08.08.2026 19:00
Arena do Grêmio
Referee: Andre Luis Skettino Policarpo Bento, Brazil
Gremio
Match Timeline
Sao Paulo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
45+5'
Mathias Villasanti
Gremio
45'
Gustavo Martins
Sao Paulo
🔄
46'
J. Cabral ↔ F. Amuzu
Gremio
48'
Wallace · Assist: Carlos Vinicius
Gremio
🔄
54'
J. Nardoni ↔ Dodi
Gremio
🔄
70'
Danielzinho ↔ D. Bobadilla
Sao Paulo
🔄
71'
Ferreira ↔ Cauly
Sao Paulo
🟨
75'
Luciano
Sao Paulo
🔄
77'
Jonathan Calleri ↔ Andre Silva
Sao Paulo
🔄
78'
Carlos Vinicius ↔ M. Braithwaite
Gremio
🟨
81'
Diego Caito
Gremio
86'
C. Pavon
Gremio
🔄
89'
Wendell ↔ Victor Sa
Sao Paulo
🔄
89'
Pablo Maia ↔ G. Santana
Sao Paulo
🟨
90+5'
Walter Kannemann
Gremio
🟨
90+1'
Marlon
Gremio
🟨
90+5'
Robert Arboleda
Sao Paulo
🟨
90+2'
André Silva
Sao Paulo
🔄
90+1'
M. Villasanti ↔ Walter Kannemann
Gremio
🔄
90+1'
C. Pavon ↔ L. Perez
Gremio

Gremio vs Sao Paulo Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 62%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 70.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
62%
-
BTTS Yes
82.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
70.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Gremio Win 62%
Draw 7.7%
Sao Paulo Win 30.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Gremio1.19
Sao Paulo1.27
Recent Form (Last 5)
Gremio Gremio
WWDLW
28 GF / 30 GA
Sao Paulo Sao Paulo
WLDWL
25 GF / 23 GA
Key Stats
1.22
Average Goals Scored
1.25
1.3
Average Goals Conceded
1.15
15
BTTS Yes
12
11
Over 2.5
8
3.7
Shots on Goal
3.9

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Gremio Gremio 23 matches
Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 20 matches
Gremio Statistic Sao Paulo
7 Wins 7
7 Draws 5
9 Losses 8
28 Goals For 25
30 Goals Against 23
1.22 Avg Goals Scored 1.25
1.3 Avg Goals Conceded 1.15
15 BTTS Yes 12
18 Over 1.5 15
11 Over 2.5 8
4 Over 3.5 3
5 Clean Sheets 4
6 Failed To Score 4
3.7 Shots On Goal 3.9
11.25 Total Shots 11.75
4.15 Corners 6.35
49.8% Ball Possession 53.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Sao Paulo's more proactive style and Gremio's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Gremio expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Sao Paulo in 4-4-1-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Sao Paulo having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Sao Paulo. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Sao Paulo arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.

Gremio Analysis

Gremio sit 17 with 22 points after 20 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 7 draws, and 8 defeats, and the 22:26 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Carlos Vinícius (9 goals), Tetê (2 goals), Gabriel Mec (2 goals), with creative support from Francis Amuzu (3 assists), Cristian Pavón (3 assists), Gustavo Martins (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Sao Paulo Analysis

Sao Paulo sit 12 with 26 points after 20 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 8 defeats with a 25:23 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Jonathan Calleri (5 goals), Luciano (5 goals), Ferreirinha (4 goals), with creative support from Wendell (3 assists), Jonathan Calleri (1 assists), Luciano (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Gremio won 7 times, Sao Paulo won 6 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:15 from Gremio's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.3%)
Predicted formations: Gremio 4-1-4-1 / Sao Paulo 4-4-1-1
H2H summary: Gremio wins 7, draws 2, Sao Paulo wins 6

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 17 6 4 53:22 31 57
W W W W L
2 27 16 8 3 47:21 26 56
W D D W L
3 27 13 7 7 41:31 10 46
D L D W D
4 27 12 9 6 41:35 6 45
L W D W W
5 26 11 10 5 40:32 8 43
W W W D D
6 27 12 6 9 39:39 0 42
L W L W W
7 26 11 6 9 35:31 4 39
W L W D W
8 27 10 8 9 37:38 -1 38
D L W W D
9 26 10 6 10 32:29 3 36
D L L W D
10 26 9 8 9 39:39 0 35
W W W D W
11 26 9 6 11 31:30 1 33
L W W L D
12 27 9 6 12 27:39 -12 33
D W L L W
13 27 8 8 11 28:29 -1 32
L L L L L
14 26 8 8 10 38:41 -3 32
D D L L L
15 27 7 8 12 31:42 -11 29
D W L D D
16 26 7 7 12 28:35 -7 28
L L W L L
17 26 7 7 12 29:41 -12 28
W L W L L
18 27 6 10 11 30:35 -5 28
W L L D D
19 26 5 8 13 30:43 -13 23
L L L D D
20 26 3 8 15 28:52 -24 17
L W L W D
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B