Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
62%
|
- | |
| BTTS | Yes |
82.4%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
70.3%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
92%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 2-1 |
-
|
- |
Gremio
Sao Paulo
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Gremio
23 matches
Sao Paulo
20 matches
| Gremio | Statistic | Sao Paulo |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Wins | 7 |
| 7 | Draws | 5 |
| 9 | Losses | 8 |
| 28 | Goals For | 25 |
| 30 | Goals Against | 23 |
| 1.22 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.25 |
| 1.3 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.15 |
| 15 | BTTS Yes | 12 |
| 18 | Over 1.5 | 15 |
| 11 | Over 2.5 | 8 |
| 4 | Over 3.5 | 3 |
| 5 | Clean Sheets | 4 |
| 6 | Failed To Score | 4 |
| 3.7 | Shots On Goal | 3.9 |
| 11.25 | Total Shots | 11.75 |
| 4.15 | Corners | 6.35 |
| 49.8% | Ball Possession | 53.6% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
This match looks like a contest between Sao Paulo's more proactive style and Gremio's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Gremio expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Sao Paulo in 4-4-1-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Sao Paulo having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Sao Paulo. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Sao Paulo arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.
Gremio sit 17 with 22 points after 20 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 7 draws, and 8 defeats, and the 22:26 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Carlos Vinícius (9 goals), Tetê (2 goals), Gabriel Mec (2 goals), with creative support from Francis Amuzu (3 assists), Cristian Pavón (3 assists), Gustavo Martins (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.
Sao Paulo sit 12 with 26 points after 20 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 8 defeats with a 25:23 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Jonathan Calleri (5 goals), Luciano (5 goals), Ferreirinha (4 goals), with creative support from Wendell (3 assists), Jonathan Calleri (1 assists), Luciano (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Gremio won 7 times, Sao Paulo won 6 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:15 from Gremio's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.2 goals per game.
Gremio
5
5
3
8
4
5
Lineups
Gremio
RB Bragantino
Gremio
Atletico-MG
Gremio
Fluminense
Gremio
Mirassol
Gremio
Cruzeiro
Gremio
Chapecoense-sc
Gremio
Cascavel
Gremio
Corinthians
Gremio
Santos
Gremio
Bahia
Gremio
Flamengo
Gremio
Atletico Paranaense
Gremio
Coritiba
Gremio
Cruzeiro
Gremio
Internacional
Gremio
Remo
Gremio
Palmeiras
Gremio
Vasco DA Gama
Gremio
Vitoria
Gremio
Chapecoense-sc
Sao Paulo
Coritiba
Sao Paulo
Flamengo
Sao Paulo
Atletico Paranaense
Sao Paulo
Remo
Sao Paulo
Botafogo
Sao Paulo
Fluminense
Sao Paulo
Corinthians
Sao Paulo
Bahia
Sao Paulo
Mirassol
Sao Paulo
Vasco DA Gama
Sao Paulo
Vitoria
Sao Paulo
Cruzeiro
Sao Paulo
Internacional
Sao Paulo
Palmeiras
Sao Paulo
Atletico-MG
Sao Paulo
RB Bragantino
Sao Paulo
Chapecoense-sc
Sao Paulo
Coritiba
Sao Paulo
Gremio
Sao Paulo
Santos
Gremio
Fluminense
Gremio
Cruzeiro
Gremio
Chapecoense-sc
Gremio
Corinthians
Gremio
Santos
Gremio
Flamengo
Gremio
Coritiba
Gremio
Remo
Gremio
Vitoria
Gremio
RB Bragantino
Gremio
Atletico-MG
Gremio
Botafogo
Sao Paulo
Flamengo
Sao Paulo
Remo
Sao Paulo
Fluminense
Sao Paulo
Corinthians
Sao Paulo
Vasco DA Gama
Sao Paulo
Vitoria
Sao Paulo
Internacional
Sao Paulo
Atletico-MG
Sao Paulo
RB Bragantino
Sao Paulo
Coritiba
Sao Paulo
Santos
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 40:19 | 21 | 48 |
L
D
W
L
W
|
|
| 2 | 23 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 45:21 | 24 | 45 |
L
W
W
D
D
|
|
| 3 | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 31:20 | 11 | 41 |
D
W
D
W
W
|
|
| 4 | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 36:29 | 7 | 41 |
W
W
D
D
D
|
|
| 5 | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 34:33 | 1 | 39 |
W
W
W
W
L
|
|
| 6 | 23 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 32:28 | 4 | 34 |
D
D
D
D
D
|
|
| 7 | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 30:27 | 3 | 33 |
D
W
D
W
D
|
|
| 8 | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 27:23 | 4 | 32 |
D
L
D
D
W
|
|
| 9 | 23 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 25:22 | 3 | 32 |
L
W
D
D
W
|
|
| 10 | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 28:30 | -2 | 31 |
D
W
L
D
L
|
|
| 11 | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 35:34 | 1 | 30 |
L
D
W
D
W
|
|
| 12 | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 23:33 | -10 | 29 |
W
L
L
L
D
|
|
| 13 |
Sao Paulo
Away
|
22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 27:26 | 1 | 27 |
D
L
D
L
L
|
| 14 | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 32:35 | -3 | 25 |
W
L
D
L
W
|
|
| 15 |
Gremio
Home
|
22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 24:30 | -6 | 25 |
L
W
D
L
L
|
| 16 | 24 | 5 | 10 | 9 | 24:28 | -4 | 25 |
D
D
D
D
L
|
|
| 17 | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 25:35 | -10 | 23 |
L
L
W
D
W
|
|
| 18 | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 28:39 | -11 | 23 |
L
D
D
L
W
|
|
| 19 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 23:34 | -11 | 22 |
L
D
D
L
L
|
|
| 20 | 22 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 23:46 | -23 | 11 |
D
L
D
L
L
|