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BRAZIL › SERIE A
20.09.2026 14:00
Arena do Grêmio
Referee: Paulo Cesar Zanovelli da Silva, Brazil
Gremio
Match Timeline
Palmeiras
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
33'
Agustín Giay
Palmeiras
🟨
40'
Erick Noriega
Gremio
🔄
46'
Erick Noriega ↔ Danilo Barbosa
Gremio
🟨
64'
João Pedro
Gremio
🟨
67'
Carlos Vinícius
Gremio
🔄
68'
Cristian Pavón ↔ José Enamorado
Gremio
🟨
69'
Gustavo Martins
Gremio
🔄
69'
Francis Amuzu ↔ Jovane Cabral
Gremio
🔄
72'
Jhon Arias ↔ Felipe Anderson
Palmeiras
🔄
72'
Vitor Roque ↔ Ramón Sosa
Palmeiras
🟨
73'
Alexander Barboza
Palmeiras
🔄
74'
Carlos Vinícius ↔ Martin Braithwaite
Gremio
🟨
77'
Joaquín Piquerez
Palmeiras
🟨
79'
Lucas Evangelista
Palmeiras
🔄
79'
Joaquín Piquerez ↔ Arthur Gabriel
Palmeiras
🔄
79'
Andreas Pereira ↔ Mauricio
Palmeiras
🔄
81'
João Pedro ↔ Marcos Rocha
Gremio
🟨
88'
Ramón Sosa
Palmeiras
🔄
88'
Agustín Giay ↔ Khellven
Palmeiras
🟨
89'
Pedro Gabriel
Gremio

Gremio vs Palmeiras Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 52.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
52.3%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
54.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Gremio Win 36.6%
Draw 11.1%
Palmeiras Win 52.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Gremio1.04
Palmeiras1.57
Recent Form (Last 5)
Gremio Gremio
WWDLW
36 GF / 42 GA
Palmeiras Palmeiras
WLDWL
62 GF / 30 GA
Key Stats
1.2
Average Goals Scored
1.68
1.4
Average Goals Conceded
0.81
19
BTTS Yes
22
16
Over 2.5
17
3.67
Shots on Goal
5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Gremio Gremio 30 matches
Palmeiras Palmeiras 37 matches
Gremio Statistic Palmeiras
9 Wins 21
7 Draws 11
14 Losses 5
36 Goals For 62
42 Goals Against 30
1.2 Avg Goals Scored 1.68
1.4 Avg Goals Conceded 0.81
19 BTTS Yes 22
23 Over 1.5 26
16 Over 2.5 17
6 Over 3.5 9
5 Clean Sheets 14
9 Failed To Score 4
3.67 Shots On Goal 5
11.44 Total Shots 15.43
4.22 Corners 6.05
50.4% Ball Possession 53.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Palmeiras's more proactive style and Gremio's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Palmeiras. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Palmeiras carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 56 points while Gremio sit 15 on 28, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Gremio expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Palmeiras in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Palmeiras having the stronger overall control. Gremio have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

Gremio Analysis

Gremio sit 15 with 28 points after 26 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 7 wins, 7 draws, and 12 losses, together with goals at 28:35, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through Carlos Vinícius (9 goals), C. Pavón (2 goals), Gustavo Martins (2 goals), with creative support from C. Pavón (4 assists), Francis Amuzu (3 assists), Gustavo Martins (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, the split record of 7 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses points to a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Palmeiras Analysis

Palmeiras arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 1 place with 56 points after 27 matches. The record of 16 wins, 8 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 47:21 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through J. López (7 goals), Maurício (6 goals), Vitor Roque (5 goals), with creative support from Andreas Pereira (10 assists), J. López (3 assists), Allan (3 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 7 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Gremio won 4 times, Palmeiras won 8 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:24 from Gremio's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.9%)
Predicted formations: Gremio 4-1-4-1 / Palmeiras 3-4-2-1
Missing players: Gremio 3, Palmeiras 3
H2H summary: Gremio wins 4, draws 3, Palmeiras wins 8

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 19 7 4 58:25 33 64
W D W W W
2 30 18 9 3 52:22 30 63
W W D W D
3 30 15 8 7 49:35 14 53
W D W D L
4 30 14 9 7 48:37 11 51
L W W L W
5 30 13 10 7 44:36 8 49
W L L W W
6 30 14 6 10 46:44 2 48
L W W L W
7 30 13 8 9 41:35 6 47
W D W D W
8 30 11 9 10 46:45 1 42
L D W W W
9 30 11 7 12 38:35 3 40
W D L L D
10 30 11 6 13 35:35 0 39
W L L W L
11 30 10 9 11 38:48 -10 39
D L L D L
12 30 10 6 14 33:44 -11 36
L W L D W
13 30 9 9 12 43:48 -5 36
D L L W D
14 29 9 8 12 36:42 -6 35
D W W W L
15 30 8 9 13 34:44 -10 33
L D W D W
16 30 8 8 14 31:38 -7 32
L L L L L
17 30 7 11 12 33:38 -5 32
D W L W L
18 30 7 10 13 32:40 -8 31
D D D L L
19 30 5 10 15 33:48 -15 25
D D L L L
20 29 3 9 17 30:61 -31 18
L L D L W
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B