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17.10.2026 11:00

Grobiņa vs Ogre United Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 64.4%
Odds 1.81
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds 1.67
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds 1.75
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
64.4%
1.81 ▥
BTTS Yes
54.1%
1.67 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
1.75 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.75 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Grobiņa Win 64.4%
Draw 10.1%
Ogre United Win 25.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Grobiņa1.5
Ogre United1.24
Recent Form (Last 5)
Grobiņa Grobiņa
WWDLW
36 GF / 66 GA
Ogre United Ogre United
WLDWL
32 GF / 81 GA
Key Stats
0.92
Average Goals Scored
0.94
1.69
Average Goals Conceded
2.38
20
BTTS Yes
21
14
Over 2.5
22
1
Shots on Goal
1

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Grobiņa Grobiņa 39 matches
Ogre United Ogre United 34 matches
Grobiņa Statistic Ogre United
7 Wins 4
14 Draws 6
18 Losses 24
36 Goals For 32
66 Goals Against 81
0.92 Avg Goals Scored 0.94
1.69 Avg Goals Conceded 2.38
20 BTTS Yes 21
28 Over 1.5 29
14 Over 2.5 22
11 Over 3.5 15
7 Clean Sheets 2
15 Failed To Score 11
1 Shots On Goal 1
4 Total Shots 2.5
1.33 Corners 0.5
11.3% Ball Possession 8.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Ogre United. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Ogre United arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Ogre United having the stronger overall control.

Grobiņa Analysis

Grobiņa sit 8 with 26 points after 31 league matches. Their overall return of 5 wins, 11 draws, and 15 losses with goals at 21:52 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, the record of 3 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Ogre United Analysis

Ogre United approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 10 with 18 points from 31 matches. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 6 draws, and 21 defeats, and the 30:76 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 1 draws, and 13 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Grobiņa won 0 times, Ogre United won 0 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:4 from Grobiņa's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.9%)
Predicted formations: Grobiņa 4-4-2 / Ogre United -
H2H summary: Grobiņa wins 0, draws 3, Ogre United wins 0

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 25 5 2 79:24 55 80
W W D W D
2 32 23 7 2 88:30 58 76
W W W D D
3 32 19 7 6 52:32 20 64
W D W D W
4 32 12 7 13 43:46 -3 43
L D D D W
5 32 11 9 12 37:36 1 42
W D L D L
6 32 11 5 16 31:45 -14 38
L W L L W
7 32 8 8 16 34:53 -19 32
L L D L W
8 32 5 11 16 22:54 -32 26
L D D L W
9 32 5 9 18 44:63 -19 24
L D L W L
10 32 4 6 22 31:78 -47 18
L W L D L