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SAUDI-ARABIA › PRO LEAGUE
16.10.2026 18:00
Alinma Stadium

Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 80.6%
Odds 1.81
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.40
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.40
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
80.6%
1.81 ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
1.40 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.40 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.75 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
13.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Al-Ittihad FC Win 80.6%
Draw 5.4%
Al Shabab Win 14%
Expected Goals (xG)
Al-Ittihad FC1.59
Al Shabab1.47
Recent Form (Last 5)
Al-Ittihad FC Al-Ittihad FC
WWDLW
23 GF / 18 GA
Al Shabab Al Shabab
WLDWL
16 GF / 12 GA
Key Stats
1.92
Average Goals Scored
1.45
1.5
Average Goals Conceded
1.09
10
BTTS Yes
5
9
Over 2.5
6
4.88
Shots on Goal
4.38

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Al-Ittihad FC Al-Ittihad FC 12 matches
Al Shabab Al Shabab 11 matches
Al-Ittihad FC Statistic Al Shabab
7 Wins 4
3 Draws 4
2 Losses 3
23 Goals For 16
18 Goals Against 12
1.92 Avg Goals Scored 1.45
1.5 Avg Goals Conceded 1.09
10 BTTS Yes 5
10 Over 1.5 8
9 Over 2.5 6
6 Over 3.5 3
2 Clean Sheets 5
1 Failed To Score 3
4.88 Shots On Goal 4.38
14.25 Total Shots 12.63
4.25 Corners 6
52% Ball Possession 48.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Al-Ittihad FC's more proactive style and Al Shabab's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Al-Ittihad FC arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 17 points compared to Al Shabab in 14 on 4, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Al Shabab. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Al-Ittihad FC expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Al Shabab in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Al Shabab having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Al-Ittihad FC come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods.

Al-Ittihad FC Analysis

Al-Ittihad FC come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 17 points after 7 matches. With 5 wins, 2 draws, and 0 defeats plus a goal balance of 12:6, they continue to show very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by G. Ilenikhena (4 goals), S. Bergwijn (4 goals), Y. En-Nesyri (4 goals), with creative support from G. Ilenikhena (2 assists), H. Aouar (2 assists), S. Bergwijn (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, the split of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Al Shabab Analysis

Al Shabab sit 14 with 4 points after 7 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 0 wins, 4 draws, and 3 defeats with a 6:11 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Y. Carrasco (2 goals), Roger Martínez (2 goals), J. Brownhill (1 goals), with creative support from J. Brownhill (2 assists), Y. Carrasco (1 assists), Y. Adli (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Al-Ittihad FC won 9 times, Al Shabab won 4 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 27:20 from Al-Ittihad FC's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3.13 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.6%)
Predicted formations: Al-Ittihad FC 4-2-3-1 / Al Shabab 4-4-2
H2H summary: Al-Ittihad FC wins 9, draws 2, Al Shabab wins 4

Standings

Saudi Professional League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 7 1 1 23:9 14 22
W W D W W
2 8 7 0 1 26:7 19 21
W W L W W
3 8 6 1 1 19:7 12 19
W D W L W
4 8 5 2 1 14:9 5 17
L W W W D
5 9 5 1 3 14:8 6 16
L D W W W
6 8 5 0 3 20:10 10 15
W W L W L
7 9 4 3 2 13:12 1 15
W D D D W
8 9 3 3 3 8:9 -1 12
D L D W L
9 9 3 3 3 14:18 -4 12
L L L W D
10 9 2 3 4 10:13 -3 9
L D L W D
11 9 1 6 2 6:11 -5 9
W D D D L
12 8 2 3 3 9:17 -8 9
D W D L W
13 8 1 4 3 9:11 -2 7
W D L L D
14 9 1 4 4 8:14 -6 7
L D D L D
15 8 1 3 4 8:15 -7 6
W L D D L
16 9 1 3 5 7:17 -10 6
W L L L D
17 9 0 4 5 4:16 -12 4
D L L L D
18 8 0 2 6 6:15 -9 2
L D L L L
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2
Promotion - Gulf Club Champions League
Relegation - Division 1