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BRAZIL › SERIE A
18.10.2026 19:00
Arena do Grêmio

Gremio vs Cruzeiro Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 48%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
48%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
75.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
74.8%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Gremio Win 35.3%
Draw 16.8%
Cruzeiro Win 48%
Expected Goals (xG)
Gremio1.22
Cruzeiro1.42
Recent Form (Last 5)
Gremio Gremio
WWDLW
38 GF / 44 GA
Cruzeiro Cruzeiro
WLDWL
59 GF / 53 GA
Key Stats
1.15
Average Goals Scored
1.48
1.33
Average Goals Conceded
1.33
21
BTTS Yes
26
16
Over 2.5
24
3.7
Shots on Goal
4.89

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Gremio Gremio 33 matches
Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 40 matches
Gremio Statistic Cruzeiro
9 Wins 18
10 Draws 9
14 Losses 13
38 Goals For 59
44 Goals Against 53
1.15 Avg Goals Scored 1.48
1.33 Avg Goals Conceded 1.33
21 BTTS Yes 26
25 Over 1.5 33
16 Over 2.5 24
6 Over 3.5 12
6 Clean Sheets 11
10 Failed To Score 5
3.7 Shots On Goal 4.89
11.5 Total Shots 14.53
4.2 Corners 4.82
49.8% Ball Possession 54.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Cruzeiro's more proactive style and Gremio's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Gremio have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Cruzeiro. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Gremio expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Cruzeiro in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Cruzeiro having the stronger overall control. Cruzeiro carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 5 with 48 points while Gremio sit 18 on 30, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Gremio Analysis

Gremio sit 18 with 30 points after 29 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 7 wins, 9 draws, and 13 defeats with a 31:39 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Carlos Vinícius (9 goals), C. Pavón (2 goals), Gustavo Martins (2 goals), with creative support from C. Pavón (4 assists), F. Amuzu (3 assists), Gustavo Martins (2 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, the split record of 7 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses points to a very strong split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Cruzeiro Analysis

Operating from 5 place with 48 points from 29 games, Cruzeiro bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 14 wins, 6 draws, and 9 defeats, together with goals at 44:40, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through Matheus Pereira (8 goals), Kaio Jorge (8 goals), Christian (4 goals), with creative support from Matheus Pereira (5 assists), K. Arroyo (4 assists), Fágner (4 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. Away from home, the split of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Gremio won 5 times, Cruzeiro won 6 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:18 from Gremio's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.47 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83.3%)
Predicted formations: Gremio 4-1-4-1 / Cruzeiro 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Gremio wins 5, draws 4, Cruzeiro wins 6

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 19 7 4 58:25 33 64
W D W W W
2 30 18 9 3 52:22 30 63
W W D W D
3 30 15 8 7 49:35 14 53
W D W D L
4 30 14 9 7 48:37 11 51
L W W L W
5 30 13 10 7 44:36 8 49
W L L W W
6 30 14 6 10 46:44 2 48
L W W L W
7 30 13 8 9 41:35 6 47
W D W D W
8 30 11 9 10 46:45 1 42
L D W W W
9 30 11 7 12 38:35 3 40
W D L L D
10 30 11 6 13 35:35 0 39
W L L W L
11 30 10 9 11 38:48 -10 39
D L L D L
12 30 10 6 14 33:44 -11 36
L W L D W
13 30 9 9 12 43:48 -5 36
D L L W D
14 29 9 8 12 36:42 -6 35
D W W W L
15 30 8 9 13 34:44 -10 33
L D W D W
16 30 8 8 14 31:38 -7 32
L L L L L
17 30 7 11 12 33:38 -5 32
D W L W L
18 30 7 10 13 32:40 -8 31
D D D L L
19 30 5 10 15 33:48 -15 25
D D L L L
20 29 3 9 17 30:61 -31 18
L L D L W
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B