Gremio vs Cruzeiro Prediction & Match Analysis
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away Win |
48%
|
- | |
| BTTS | Yes |
75.1%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
72%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
74.8%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Draw / Away |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 1-2 |
-
|
- |
Gremio
Cruzeiro
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Gremio
33 matches
Cruzeiro
40 matches
| Gremio | Statistic | Cruzeiro |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Wins | 18 |
| 10 | Draws | 9 |
| 14 | Losses | 13 |
| 38 | Goals For | 59 |
| 44 | Goals Against | 53 |
| 1.15 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.48 |
| 1.33 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.33 |
| 21 | BTTS Yes | 26 |
| 25 | Over 1.5 | 33 |
| 16 | Over 2.5 | 24 |
| 6 | Over 3.5 | 12 |
| 6 | Clean Sheets | 11 |
| 10 | Failed To Score | 5 |
| 3.7 | Shots On Goal | 4.89 |
| 11.5 | Total Shots | 14.53 |
| 4.2 | Corners | 4.82 |
| 49.8% | Ball Possession | 54.9% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Cruzeiro's more proactive style and Gremio's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Gremio have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Cruzeiro. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Gremio expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Cruzeiro in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Cruzeiro having the stronger overall control. Cruzeiro carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 5 with 48 points while Gremio sit 18 on 30, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.
Gremio sit 18 with 30 points after 29 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 7 wins, 9 draws, and 13 defeats with a 31:39 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Carlos Vinícius (9 goals), C. Pavón (2 goals), Gustavo Martins (2 goals), with creative support from C. Pavón (4 assists), F. Amuzu (3 assists), Gustavo Martins (2 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, the split record of 7 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses points to a very strong split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.
Operating from 5 place with 48 points from 29 games, Cruzeiro bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 14 wins, 6 draws, and 9 defeats, together with goals at 44:40, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through Matheus Pereira (8 goals), Kaio Jorge (8 goals), Christian (4 goals), with creative support from Matheus Pereira (5 assists), K. Arroyo (4 assists), Fágner (4 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. Away from home, the split of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Gremio won 5 times, Cruzeiro won 6 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:18 from Gremio's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.47 goals per game.
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 58:25 | 33 | 64 |
W
D
W
W
W
|
|
| 2 | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 52:22 | 30 | 63 |
W
W
D
W
D
|
|
| 3 | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 49:35 | 14 | 53 |
W
D
W
D
L
|
|
| 4 | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 48:37 | 11 | 51 |
L
W
W
L
W
|
|
| 5 | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 44:36 | 8 | 49 |
W
L
L
W
W
|
|
| 6 |
Cruzeiro
Away
|
30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 46:44 | 2 | 48 |
L
W
W
L
W
|
| 7 | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 41:35 | 6 | 47 |
W
D
W
D
W
|
|
| 8 | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 46:45 | 1 | 42 |
L
D
W
W
W
|
|
| 9 | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 38:35 | 3 | 40 |
W
D
L
L
D
|
|
| 10 | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 35:35 | 0 | 39 |
W
L
L
W
L
|
|
| 11 | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 38:48 | -10 | 39 |
D
L
L
D
L
|
|
| 12 | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 33:44 | -11 | 36 |
L
W
L
D
W
|
|
| 13 | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 43:48 | -5 | 36 |
D
L
L
W
D
|
|
| 14 | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 36:42 | -6 | 35 |
D
W
W
W
L
|
|
| 15 | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 34:44 | -10 | 33 |
L
D
W
D
W
|
|
| 16 | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 31:38 | -7 | 32 |
L
L
L
L
L
|
|
| 17 | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | 33:38 | -5 | 32 |
D
W
L
W
L
|
|
| 18 |
Gremio
Home
|
30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 32:40 | -8 | 31 |
D
D
D
L
L
|
| 19 | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 33:48 | -15 | 25 |
D
D
L
L
L
|
|
| 20 | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | 30:61 | -31 | 18 |
L
L
D
L
W
|