BRAZIL SERIE A
30.08.2026 21:30
Arena do Grêmio
Referee: Rodrigo Jose Pereira de Lima, Brazil
Gremio
Match Timeline
Chapecoense-sc
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
-5'
Walter Kannemann
Gremio
15'
Mauricio Garcez · Assist: Giovanni Augusto
Chapecoense-sc
18'
Gustavo Martins · Assist: J. Enamorado
Gremio
28'
C. Pavon
Gremio
🟨
40'
Marlon
Gremio
🔄
46'
Marlon ↔ Pedro Gabriel
Gremio
🔄
52'
J. Enamorado ↔ Joao Pedro
Gremio
🔄
52'
M. Braithwaite ↔ Carlos Vinicius
Gremio
🟨
55'
Eduardo Doma
Chapecoense-sc
56'
Gustavo Martins · Assist: C. Pavon
Gremio
🔄
61'
Bruno Matias ↔ M. Carvalho
Chapecoense-sc
🔄
61'
Mauricio Garcez ↔ F. Rossi
Chapecoense-sc
🔄
65'
Danilo Barbosa ↔ Bernardo Zortea
Gremio
🟨
71'
Bruno Pacheco
Chapecoense-sc
🔄
75'
Bruno Pacheco ↔ Fernando
Chapecoense-sc
🔄
76'
F. Amuzu ↔ Tete
Gremio
🔄
80'
Giovanni Augusto ↔ Enio
Chapecoense-sc
🔄
80'
Marcinho ↔ D. Borrero
Chapecoense-sc
🟨
90+2'
Tetê
Gremio

Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 66.8%
Odds 1.54
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.95
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds 1.88
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
66.8%
1.54
BTTS Yes
82.5%
1.95
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
1.88
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.26
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.38
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Gremio Win 66.8%
Draw 6%
Chapecoense-sc Win 27.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Gremio1.47
Chapecoense-sc1.19
Recent Form (Last 5)
Gremio Gremio
WWDLW
30 GF / 35 GA
Chapecoense-sc Chapecoense-sc
WLDWL
26 GF / 47 GA
Key Stats
1.15
Average Goals Scored
1.08
1.35
Average Goals Conceded
1.96
16
BTTS Yes
15
13
Over 2.5
13
3.52
Shots on Goal
3.3

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Gremio Gremio 26 matches
Chapecoense-sc Chapecoense-sc 24 matches
Gremio Statistic Chapecoense-sc
8 Wins 3
7 Draws 8
11 Losses 13
30 Goals For 26
35 Goals Against 47
1.15 Avg Goals Scored 1.08
1.35 Avg Goals Conceded 1.96
16 BTTS Yes 15
20 Over 1.5 21
13 Over 2.5 13
4 Over 3.5 8
5 Clean Sheets 2
8 Failed To Score 8
3.52 Shots On Goal 3.3
11.3 Total Shots 12.3
4.39 Corners 3.91
49.5% Ball Possession 42%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Chapecoense-sc. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Gremio expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Chapecoense-sc in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Chapecoense-sc having the stronger overall control. Gremio arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 15 with 25 points compared to Chapecoense-sc in 20 on 11, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Gremio Analysis

Gremio sit 15 with 25 points after 22 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 6 wins, 7 draws, and 9 losses, together with goals at 24:30, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Carlos Vinícius (9 goals), Tetê (2 goals), Gabriel Mec (2 goals), with creative support from Cristian Pavón (3 assists), Francis Amuzu (3 assists), Gustavo Martins (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, the split record of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses points to a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Chapecoense-sc Analysis

With 11 points from 22 games and a place of 20, Chapecoense-sc still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 1 wins, 8 draws, and 13 losses, together with goals at 23:46, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Marcinho (3 goals), Walter Clar (3 goals), Jean Carlos (2 goals), with creative support from Giovanni Augusto (3 assists), Bruno Pacheco (3 assists), Jean Carlos (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Gremio won 6 times, Chapecoense-sc won 4 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 26:20 from Gremio's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.07 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94%)
Predicted formations: Gremio 4-1-4-1 / Chapecoense-sc 4-3-3
Missing players: Gremio 3, Chapecoense-sc 7
H2H summary: Gremio wins 6, draws 5, Chapecoense-sc wins 4

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 17 6 4 53:22 31 57
W W W W L
2 28 16 9 3 47:21 26 57
D W D D W
3 28 13 9 6 44:36 8 48
W L W D W
4 27 13 7 7 41:31 10 46
D L D W D
5 27 12 10 5 42:33 9 46
W W W W D
6 28 13 6 9 42:40 2 45
W L W L W
7 27 11 7 9 36:32 4 40
D W L W D
8 27 10 8 9 41:40 1 38
W W W W D
9 28 10 8 10 37:43 -6 38
L D L W W
10 26 10 6 10 32:29 3 36
D L L W D
11 27 10 6 11 32:30 2 36
W L W W L
12 28 9 8 11 41:45 -4 35
L W D D L
13 28 9 6 13 28:42 -14 33
L D W L L
14 28 8 8 12 29:32 -3 32
L L L L L
15 28 8 8 12 33:42 -9 32
W D W L D
16 27 8 7 12 34:41 -7 31
W W L W L
17 28 7 8 13 30:38 -8 29
D L L L W
18 28 6 10 12 30:36 -6 28
L W L L D
19 28 5 8 15 32:47 -15 23
L L L L L
20 27 3 9 15 29:53 -24 18
D L W L W
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B