COLOMBIA PRIMERA A
02.09.2026 01:00
Estadio Metropolitano de Techo
Referee: Bismark Elias Santiago Pitalua, Colombia
Fortaleza FC
Match Timeline
Once Caldas
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
27'
S. Navarro
Fortaleza FC
🔄
33'
J. Castillo ↔ E. Cabezas
Fortaleza FC
41'
J. A. Zapata Ramirez · Assist: J. D. Cuesta Santos
Once Caldas
🔄
46'
E. Torres ↔ M. Zuleta
Once Caldas
🔄
54'
T. Wilke ↔ J. Salas
Fortaleza FC
🟨
56'
S. Navarro
Fortaleza FC
🟨
57'
A. Correa
Once Caldas
🟥
61'
J. Solis
Fortaleza FC
🔄
62'
A. Correa ↔ J. Patino
Once Caldas
🔄
68'
P. Gomez ↔ D. Moreno
Once Caldas
🔄
69'
M. Barrios ↔ H. Guzman
Once Caldas
🔄
79'
J. A. Zapata Ramirez ↔ J. Quinones
Once Caldas
82'
D. Moreno · Assist: J. D. Cuesta Santos
Once Caldas
🔄
84'
S. Vivas ↔ B. Mejia
Fortaleza FC
🔄
84'
S. Navarro ↔ A. Batioja
Fortaleza FC
🔄
84'
J. Blanco ↔ J. Sinisterra
Fortaleza FC

Fortaleza FC vs Once Caldas Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 48.6%
Odds 2.19
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.83
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds 2.07
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
48.6%
2.19
BTTS Yes
82.5%
1.83
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
2.07
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.9%
1.28
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
5.00
Correct Score 1-2
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
Fortaleza FC Win 35.7%
Draw 15.7%
Once Caldas Win 48.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Fortaleza FC1.1
Once Caldas1.45
Recent Form (Last 5)
Fortaleza FC Fortaleza FC
WWDLW
27 GF / 33 GA
Once Caldas Once Caldas
WLDWL
43 GF / 32 GA
Key Stats
1.08
Average Goals Scored
1.54
1.32
Average Goals Conceded
1.14
17
BTTS Yes
21
11
Over 2.5
12
3.76
Shots on Goal
5.54

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Fortaleza FC Fortaleza FC 25 matches
Once Caldas Once Caldas 28 matches
Fortaleza FC Statistic Once Caldas
6 Wins 9
10 Draws 15
9 Losses 4
27 Goals For 43
33 Goals Against 32
1.08 Avg Goals Scored 1.54
1.32 Avg Goals Conceded 1.14
17 BTTS Yes 21
20 Over 1.5 23
11 Over 2.5 12
4 Over 3.5 7
6 Clean Sheets 5
5 Failed To Score 4
3.76 Shots On Goal 5.54
11.52 Total Shots 14.62
4.28 Corners 5.19
53.8% Ball Possession 53.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Once Caldas's more proactive style and Fortaleza FC's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Once Caldas carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 5 with 33 points while Fortaleza FC sit 15 on 22, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Once Caldas.

Fortaleza FC Analysis

With 22 points from 19 games and a place of 15, Fortaleza FC still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 5 wins, 7 draws, and 7 losses, together with goals at 22:27, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Richardson Rivas (2 goals), Joan Cajares (1 goals), J. Solís (1 goals), with creative support from Yesid Díaz (1 assists), Santiago Vivas (1 assists), Andres Copete (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, the split record of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Once Caldas Analysis

Placed 5 with 33 points from 19 outings, Once Caldas continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 8 wins, 9 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 31:22 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Andrés Roa (2 goals), Jefry Zapata (2 goals), Dayro Moreno (2 goals), with creative support from Juan David Cuesta (3 assists), Andrés Roa (1 assists), Michael Barrios (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 6 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Fortaleza FC won 5 times, Once Caldas won 3 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:12 from Fortaleza FC's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.78 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.3%)
Predicted formations: Fortaleza FC 4-1-4-1 / Once Caldas 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Fortaleza FC wins 5, draws 1, Once Caldas wins 3

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
W W W W L
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
L D D L D
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
D L D L L
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
W D W D W
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
L L W D D
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
L W W D W
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
W D W D D
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
W D D D D
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
W D D L D
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
D D L D W
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
L W W L W
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
L D D D D
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
W D D W D
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
L L L L W
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
D D L D L
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
D D D W D
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
W L L L D
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
W W D D L
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
D L W W D
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
L D L W D
Post season qualification