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BRAZIL › SERIE A
18.10.2026 19:00
Estádio do Maracanã
Referee: Ramon Abatti

Fluminense vs Santos Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 89.2%
Odds 1.30
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds 1.80
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 87%
Odds 1.90
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
89.2%
1.30 ▥
BTTS Yes
86%
1.80 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
87%
1.90 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
68.5%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.40 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Fluminense Win 48.5%
Draw 10.8%
Santos Win 40.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Fluminense1.53
Santos1.41
Recent Form (Last 5)
Fluminense Fluminense
WWDLW
68 GF / 50 GA
Santos Santos
WLDWL
49 GF / 45 GA
Key Stats
1.58
Average Goals Scored
1.58
1.16
Average Goals Conceded
1.45
29
BTTS Yes
22
22
Over 2.5
21
5.29
Shots on Goal
4.03

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Fluminense Fluminense 43 matches
Santos Santos 31 matches
Fluminense Statistic Santos
19 Wins 12
13 Draws 9
11 Losses 10
68 Goals For 49
50 Goals Against 45
1.58 Avg Goals Scored 1.58
1.16 Avg Goals Conceded 1.45
29 BTTS Yes 22
35 Over 1.5 28
22 Over 2.5 21
12 Over 3.5 10
10 Clean Sheets 7
7 Failed To Score 3
5.29 Shots On Goal 4.03
14.12 Total Shots 13.3
4.83 Corners 5.27
59.5% Ball Possession 49.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Santos. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Santos look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match.

Fluminense Analysis

Fluminense come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 3 place with 51 points after 29 matches. The return of 14 wins, 9 draws, and 6 defeats, together with goals at 48:36, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through John Kennedy (8 goals), J. Savarino (6 goals), L. Acosta (5 goals), with creative support from L. Acosta (4 assists), K. Serna (3 assists), A. Canobbio (2 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. At home, the split of 11 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Santos Analysis

From their first 29 matches, Santos have collected 42 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 11 wins, 9 draws, and 9 losses, while the 45:43 goal ratio supports the view of very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Going forward they rely heavily on Gabriel Barbosa (13 goals), Neymar (8 goals), B. Rollheiser (4 goals), with creative support from Gabriel Barbosa (3 assists), Neymar (2 assists), B. Rollheiser (2 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the record of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Fluminense won 6 times, Santos won 4 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:15 from Fluminense's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.13 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.2%)
Predicted formations: Fluminense 4-2-3-1 / Santos 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Fluminense wins 6, draws 5, Santos wins 4

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 19 7 4 58:25 33 64
W D W W W
2 30 18 9 3 52:22 30 63
W W D W D
3 30 15 8 7 49:35 14 53
W D W D L
4 30 14 9 7 48:37 11 51
L W W L W
5 30 13 10 7 44:36 8 49
W L L W W
6 30 14 6 10 46:44 2 48
L W W L W
7 30 13 8 9 41:35 6 47
W D W D W
8 30 11 9 10 46:45 1 42
L D W W W
9 30 11 7 12 38:35 3 40
W D L L D
10 30 11 6 13 35:35 0 39
W L L W L
11 30 10 9 11 38:48 -10 39
D L L D L
12 30 10 6 14 33:44 -11 36
L W L D W
13 30 9 9 12 43:48 -5 36
D L L W D
14 29 9 8 12 36:42 -6 35
D W W W L
15 30 8 9 13 34:44 -10 33
L D W D W
16 30 8 8 14 31:38 -7 32
L L L L L
17 30 7 11 12 33:38 -5 32
D W L W L
18 30 7 10 13 32:40 -8 31
D D D L L
19 30 5 10 15 33:48 -15 25
D D L L L
20 29 3 9 17 30:61 -31 18
L L D L W
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B