BRAZIL SERIE A
30.05.2026 19:00
Estádio do Maracanã
Referee: Flavio Rodrigues De Souza, Brazil
Flamengo
Match Timeline
Coritiba
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
11'
Samuel Lino · Assist: Pedro
Flamengo
🔄
19'
Leo Ortiz ↔ Joao Souza
Flamengo
VAR
34'
Pedro Rocha
Coritiba
🟥
36'
Pedro Rocha
Coritiba
🟨
41'
Erick Pulgar
Flamengo
🔄
46'
Joao Pedro Chermont ↔ Lucas Taverna
Coritiba
🟨
54'
Evertton Araujo
Flamengo
60'
Pedro · Assist: Samuel Lino
Flamengo
🔄
63'
J. Lavega ↔ Felipe Jonatan
Coritiba
🔄
63'
Thiago Santos ↔ Vini Paulista
Coritiba
🔄
63'
Josue ↔ Gustavo
Coritiba
70'
Samuel Lino · Assist: Ayrton Lucas
Flamengo
🔄
75'
Samuel Lino ↔ Everton
Flamengo
🔄
76'
E. Pulgar ↔ S. Niguez
Flamengo
🟨
84'
Luiz Araújo
Flamengo
🔄
85'
Luiz Araujo ↔ Wallace Yan
Flamengo
🔄
85'
Pedro ↔ Joshua
Flamengo
🔄
88'
S. Gomez ↔ Wallisson
Coritiba

Flamengo vs Coritiba Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 81.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 69.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 60.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
81.5%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
69.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
60.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
68.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Flamengo Win 81.5%
Draw 0%
Coritiba Win 18.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Flamengo1.61
Coritiba1.19
Recent Form (Last 5)
Flamengo Flamengo
WWDLW
39 GF / 18 GA
Coritiba Coritiba
WLDWL
24 GF / 21 GA
Key Stats
1.86
Average Goals Scored
1.41
0.86
Average Goals Conceded
1.24
10
BTTS Yes
8
12
Over 2.5
7
5.67
Shots on Goal
3.35

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Flamengo Flamengo 21 matches
Coritiba Coritiba 17 matches
Flamengo Statistic Coritiba
13 Wins 7
5 Draws 5
3 Losses 5
39 Goals For 24
18 Goals Against 21
1.86 Avg Goals Scored 1.41
0.86 Avg Goals Conceded 1.24
10 BTTS Yes 8
19 Over 1.5 12
12 Over 2.5 7
4 Over 3.5 5
9 Clean Sheets 5
2 Failed To Score 4
5.67 Shots On Goal 3.35
15.38 Total Shots 10.18
4.57 Corners 3.18
55.3% Ball Possession 38.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Coritiba. Flamengo arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 31 points compared to Coritiba in 7 on 23, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Flamengo Analysis

Flamengo come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 31 points after 15 matches. The return of 9 wins, 4 draws, and 2 defeats, together with goals at 28:13, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through Pedro (9 goals), G. de Arrascaeta (3 goals), Lucas Paquetá (3 goals), with creative support from Samuel Lino (5 assists), Pedro (3 assists), Guillermo Varela (3 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, the split of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Coritiba Analysis

So far, Coritiba have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 23 points from 16 matches. The record of 6 wins, 5 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 21:19 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Breno Lopes (7 goals), J. Lavega (4 goals), Pedro Rocha (4 goals), with creative support from Josué (6 assists), Lucas Ronier (2 assists), Tinga (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Flamengo won 11 times, Coritiba won 3 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 25:10 from Flamengo's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Flamengo 4-2-3-1 / Coritiba 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Flamengo 10, Coritiba 5
H2H summary: Flamengo wins 11, draws 1, Coritiba wins 3

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 17 6 4 53:22 31 57
W W W W L
2 27 16 8 3 47:21 26 56
W D D W L
3 27 13 7 7 41:31 10 46
D L D W D
4 27 12 10 5 42:33 9 46
W W W W D
5 27 12 9 6 41:35 6 45
L W D W W
6 27 12 6 9 39:39 0 42
L W L W W
7 26 11 6 9 35:31 4 39
W L W D W
8 27 10 8 9 37:38 -1 38
D L W W D
9 26 10 6 10 32:29 3 36
D L L W D
10 26 9 8 9 39:39 0 35
W W W D W
11 26 9 6 11 31:30 1 33
L W W L D
12 27 9 6 12 27:39 -12 33
D W L L W
13 27 8 8 11 28:29 -1 32
L L L L L
14 26 8 8 10 38:41 -3 32
D D L L L
15 27 7 8 12 31:42 -11 29
D W L D D
16 26 7 7 12 28:35 -7 28
L L W L L
17 26 7 7 12 29:41 -12 28
W L W L L
18 27 6 10 11 30:35 -5 28
W L L D D
19 27 5 8 14 31:45 -14 23
L L L L D
20 26 3 8 15 28:52 -24 17
L W L W D
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B