COLOMBIA PRIMERA A
17.09.2026 01:20
Estadio Metropolitano de Techo
Referee: Carlos Betancur
Internacional de Bogota
Match Timeline
Atletico Nacional
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
20'
Diego Duarte
Internacional de Bogota
34'
Ian Carlo Poveda
Atletico Nacional
🟨
42'
Ronaldo Junior Julio Tobías
Internacional de Bogota
🟨
45+2'
Larry Vásquez
Internacional de Bogota
🔄
45'
Ronaldo Junior Julio Tobías ↔ Johan Caballero
Internacional de Bogota
🔄
45'
Agustin Irazoque ↔ Carlos Vivas
Internacional de Bogota
🔄
59'
Juan Rengifo ↔ James Rodríguez
Atletico Nacional
🔄
59'
Chicho Arango ↔ Alfredo Morelos
Atletico Nacional
🔄
59'
Kevin Parra ↔ Marlos Moreno
Atletico Nacional
🔄
60'
Facundo Boné ↔ Cristián Dájome
Internacional de Bogota
62'
Elías Lautaro Cabrera
Atletico Nacional
VAR
66'
Fabricio Sanguinetti
Internacional de Bogota
🔄
71'
Yeicar Perlaza ↔ Andrés Román
Atletico Nacional
🔄
77'
Elías Lautaro Cabrera ↔ Juan Zapata
Atletico Nacional
🔄
80'
Dewar Victoria ↔ Ruben Manjarres
Internacional de Bogota
🔄
80'
Diego Duarte ↔ Yojan Garces
Internacional de Bogota
83'
Yojan Garces
Internacional de Bogota
🟨
88'
Andrés Román
Atletico Nacional
90+9'
Juan Zapata · Assist: James Rodríguez
Atletico Nacional

Internacional de Bogota vs Atletico Nacional Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 54.3%
Odds 1.62
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds 1.83
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.91
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
54.3%
1.62
BTTS Yes
75.1%
1.83
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.91
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.24
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
4.75
Correct Score 1-2
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Internacional de Bogota Win 32.7%
Draw 13%
Atletico Nacional Win 54.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Internacional de Bogota1.15
Atletico Nacional1.75
Recent Form (Last 5)
Internacional de Bogota Internacional de Bogota
WWDLW
40 GF / 47 GA
Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional
WLDWL
65 GF / 32 GA
Key Stats
1.29
Average Goals Scored
1.91
1.52
Average Goals Conceded
0.94
20
BTTS Yes
15
18
Over 2.5
23
4.47
Shots on Goal
6.23

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Internacional de Bogota Internacional de Bogota 31 matches
Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 34 matches
Internacional de Bogota Statistic Atletico Nacional
10 Wins 23
12 Draws 1
9 Losses 10
40 Goals For 65
47 Goals Against 32
1.29 Avg Goals Scored 1.91
1.52 Avg Goals Conceded 0.94
20 BTTS Yes 15
24 Over 1.5 26
18 Over 2.5 23
10 Over 3.5 7
7 Clean Sheets 11
8 Failed To Score 9
4.47 Shots On Goal 6.23
12.53 Total Shots 16.32
4.6 Corners 5.29
44% Ball Possession 57%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Atletico Nacional's more proactive style and Internacional de Bogota's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Atletico Nacional. Atletico Nacional look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Atletico Nacional carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 40 points while Internacional de Bogota sit 8 on 28, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Internacional de Bogota Analysis

Internacional de Bogota sit 8 with 28 points after 19 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 7 draws, and 5 losses, while the 26:26 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on F. Sanguinetti (7 goals), F. Boné (5 goals), Dereck Moncada (5 goals), with creative support from F. Sanguinetti (7 assists), F. Boné (2 assists), Dereck Moncada (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Atletico Nacional Analysis

Atletico Nacional come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 40 points after 19 matches. With 13 wins, 1 draws, and 5 defeats plus a goal balance of 35:15, they continue to show very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by A. Morelos (13 goals), J. Rengifo (7 goals), A. Sarmiento (7 goals), with creative support from J. Rengifo (7 assists), A. Morelos (6 assists), A. Sarmiento (6 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their record of 5 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Internacional de Bogota won 5 times, Atletico Nacional won 7 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:26 from Internacional de Bogota's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.53 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87%)
Predicted formations: Internacional de Bogota 4-2-3-1 / Atletico Nacional 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Internacional de Bogota wins 5, draws 3, Atletico Nacional wins 7

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
L W W W W
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
W L D D L
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
W W D L D
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
D L W D W
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
L W L L W
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
D L L W W
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
L W W D W
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
L L W D D
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
W W W D D
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
W W D D L
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
W D L W W
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
D L D D D
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
W D W D D
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
W L L L L
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
L D D L D
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
L D D D W
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
L W W L L
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
L L W W D
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
L L D L W
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
D L D L W
Post season qualification