🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
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TQL Stadium

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 59.6%
Odds 1.93
BTTS
Yes
Probability 88%
Odds 1.44
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds 1.45
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
59.6%
1.93
BTTS Yes
88%
1.44
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
1.45
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
84.1%
1.37
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.00
Correct Score 2-1
-
7.00
Probability Distribution
FC Cincinnati Win 59.6%
Draw 8.8%
New York City FC Win 31.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
FC Cincinnati2.09
New York City FC1.78
Recent Form (Last 5)
FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati
WWDLW
71 GF / 56 GA
New York City FC New York City FC
WLDWL
39 GF / 34 GA
Key Stats
2.54
Average Goals Scored
1.63
2
Average Goals Conceded
1.42
20
BTTS Yes
16
19
Over 2.5
13
5.43
Shots on Goal
4.84

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 28 matches
New York City FC New York City FC 24 matches
FC Cincinnati Statistic New York City FC
12 Wins 8
8 Draws 7
8 Losses 9
71 Goals For 39
56 Goals Against 34
2.54 Avg Goals Scored 1.63
2 Avg Goals Conceded 1.42
20 BTTS Yes 16
25 Over 1.5 22
19 Over 2.5 13
17 Over 3.5 7
6 Clean Sheets 4
2 Failed To Score 4
5.43 Shots On Goal 4.84
12.52 Total Shots 11.68
4.09 Corners 3.47
45% Ball Possession 54.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with FC Cincinnati expected to line up in 3-4-3 and New York City FC in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward New York City FC having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring New York City FC. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

FC Cincinnati Analysis

FC Cincinnati sit 6 with 26 points after 18 league matches. Their overall return of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 45:44 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Evander (10 goals), Kévin Denkey (9 goals), Tom Barlow (4 goals), with creative support from Evander (7 assists), Pavel Bucha (4 assists), Ender Echenique (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses fits a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

New York City FC Analysis

Placed 5 with 26 points from 18 outings, New York City FC continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 6 defeats, together with a 31:24 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Nicolás Fernández (8 goals), Agustin Ojeda (3 goals), Hannes Wolf (3 goals), with creative support from Nicolás Fernández (3 assists), Agustin Ojeda (3 assists), Hannes Wolf (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, FC Cincinnati won 6 times, New York City FC won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 26:22 from FC Cincinnati's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3.2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.2%)
Predicted formations: FC Cincinnati 3-4-3 / New York City FC 4-1-4-1
Missing players: FC Cincinnati 0, New York City FC 8
H2H summary: FC Cincinnati wins 6, draws 4, New York City FC wins 5
Last matches: FC Cincinnati
15.08.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Orlando City SC
1
1
D
01.08.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
San Jose Earthquakes
4
2
W
25.07.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Columbus Crew
1
2
L
22.07.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Vancouver Whitecaps
4
3
W
10.07.26
Fri
FC Cincinnati
Burnley
3
1
W
23.05.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Orlando City SC
6
2
W
17.05.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
San Diego
3
3
D
13.05.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Inter Miami
3
5
L
09.05.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Charlotte
2
2
D
03.05.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Chicago Fire
3
2
W
25.04.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
New York Red Bulls
2
0
W
22.04.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
New York City FC
4
4
D
18.04.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Chicago Fire
3
3
D
11.04.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Toronto FC
1
1
D
04.04.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
New York Red Bulls
2
4
L
22.03.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
CF Montreal
4
3
W
20.03.26
CON
FC Cincinnati
Tigres UANL
1
5
L
15.03.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
New England Revolution
1
6
L
13.03.26
CON
FC Cincinnati
Tigres UANL
3
0
W
08.03.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Toronto FC
0
1
L
Last matches: New York City FC
16.08.26
Maj
New York City FC
Philadelphia Union
2
3
L
31.07.26
Maj
New York City FC
Toronto FC
1
1
D
25.07.26
Maj
New York City FC
Chicago Fire
3
1
W
22.07.26
Maj
New York City FC
Columbus Crew
2
1
W
24.05.26
Maj
New York City FC
Nashville SC
1
2
L
16.05.26
Maj
New York City FC
New York Red Bulls
1
1
D
13.05.26
Maj
New York City FC
Charlotte
1
0
W
10.05.26
Maj
New York City FC
Columbus Crew
3
0
W
03.05.26
Maj
New York City FC
DC United
0
2
L
25.04.26
Maj
New York City FC
CF Montreal
0
1
L
22.04.26
Maj
New York City FC
FC Cincinnati
4
4
D
18.04.26
Maj
New York City FC
Charlotte
1
2
L
11.04.26
Maj
New York City FC
Vancouver Whitecaps
0
2
L
04.04.26
Maj
New York City FC
St. Louis City
1
1
D
22.03.26
Maj
New York City FC
Inter Miami
2
3
L
14.03.26
Maj
New York City FC
Colorado Rapids
3
1
W
07.03.26
Maj
New York City FC
Orlando City SC
5
0
W
01.03.26
Maj
New York City FC
Philadelphia Union
2
1
W
23.02.26
Maj
New York City FC
Los Angeles Galaxy
1
1
D
14.02.26
Fri
New York City FC
San Jose Earthquakes
0
2
L
H2H: FC Cincinnati vs New York City FC
22.04.26
H2H
New York City FC
FC Cincinnati
4
4
D
23.08.25
H2H
FC Cincinnati
New York City FC
0
1
L
04.05.25
H2H
New York City FC
FC Cincinnati
1
0
L
09.11.24
H2H
FC Cincinnati
New York City FC
0
0
D
02.11.24
H2H
New York City FC
FC Cincinnati
3
1
L
28.10.24
H2H
FC Cincinnati
New York City FC
1
0
W
02.10.24
H2H
New York City FC
FC Cincinnati
3
2
L
06.08.24
H2H
FC Cincinnati
New York City FC
4
2
W
23.03.24
H2H
FC Cincinnati
New York City FC
1
0
W
26.08.23
H2H
FC Cincinnati
New York City FC
3
0
W
31.05.23
H2H
New York City FC
FC Cincinnati
1
3
W
10.05.23
H2H
FC Cincinnati
New York City FC
1
0
W
08.09.22
H2H
New York City FC
FC Cincinnati
1
1
D
29.06.22
H2H
FC Cincinnati
New York City FC
4
4
D
18.09.21
H2H
FC Cincinnati
New York City FC
1
2
L
Last matches: FC Cincinnati
01.08.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
San Jose Earthquakes
4
2
W
22.07.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Vancouver Whitecaps
4
3
W
10.07.26
Fri
FC Cincinnati
Burnley
3
1
W
23.05.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Orlando City SC
6
2
W
13.05.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Inter Miami
3
5
L
25.04.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
New York Red Bulls
2
0
W
18.04.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Chicago Fire
3
3
D
22.03.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
CF Montreal
4
3
W
13.03.26
CON
FC Cincinnati
Tigres UANL
3
0
W
08.03.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Toronto FC
0
1
L
26.02.26
CON
FC Cincinnati
Universidad O&M
9
0
W
21.02.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Atlanta United FC
2
0
W
07.02.26
Fri
FC Cincinnati
Detroit City
1
0
W
H2H at home: FC Cincinnati
23.08.25
H2H
FC Cincinnati
New York City FC
0
1
L
09.11.24
H2H
FC Cincinnati
New York City FC
0
0
D
28.10.24
H2H
FC Cincinnati
New York City FC
1
0
W
06.08.24
H2H
FC Cincinnati
New York City FC
4
2
W
23.03.24
H2H
FC Cincinnati
New York City FC
1
0
W
26.08.23
H2H
FC Cincinnati
New York City FC
3
0
W
10.05.23
H2H
FC Cincinnati
New York City FC
1
0
W
29.06.22
H2H
FC Cincinnati
New York City FC
4
4
D
18.09.21
H2H
FC Cincinnati
New York City FC
1
2
L
Last matches: New York City FC
22.07.26
Maj
New York City FC
Columbus Crew
2
1
W
24.05.26
Maj
New York City FC
Nashville SC
1
2
L
16.05.26
Maj
New York City FC
New York Red Bulls
1
1
D
13.05.26
Maj
New York City FC
Charlotte
1
0
W
25.04.26
Maj
New York City FC
CF Montreal
0
1
L
11.04.26
Maj
New York City FC
Vancouver Whitecaps
0
2
L
01.03.26
Maj
New York City FC
Philadelphia Union
2
1
W
23.02.26
Maj
New York City FC
Los Angeles Galaxy
1
1
D
14.02.26
Fri
New York City FC
San Jose Earthquakes
0
2
L
11.02.26
Fri
New York City FC
Sporting Kansas City
1
2
L
08.02.26
Fri
New York City FC
Los Angeles FC
1
1
D
H2H away: New York City FC
23.08.25
H2H
FC Cincinnati
New York City FC
0
1
W
09.11.24
H2H
FC Cincinnati
New York City FC
0
0
D
28.10.24
H2H
FC Cincinnati
New York City FC
1
0
L
06.08.24
H2H
FC Cincinnati
New York City FC
4
2
L
23.03.24
H2H
FC Cincinnati
New York City FC
1
0
L
26.08.23
H2H
FC Cincinnati
New York City FC
3
0
L
10.05.23
H2H
FC Cincinnati
New York City FC
1
0
L
29.06.22
H2H
FC Cincinnati
New York City FC
4
4
D
18.09.21
H2H
FC Cincinnati
New York City FC
1
2
W
Showing odds from: Bet365
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.59
Draw 4.23
Home 1.93
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.97
Draw 2.69
Home 2.41
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.14
Over 2.5 1.45
Over 2.75 1.55
Over 3.0 1.68
Over 3.25 1.92
Over 3.5 2.13
Over 3.75 2.41
Over 4.5 3.51
Over 5.5 6.52
Under 1.5 6.30
Under 2.5 2.85
Under 2.75 2.57
Under 3.0 2.28
Under 3.25 1.97
Under 3.5 1.78
Under 3.75 1.61
Under 4.5 1.32
Under 5.5 1.13
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.50
Draw 4.00
Home 1.95
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.60
Draw 2.50
Home 2.40
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.20
Draw 2.75
Home 2.25
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.02
Over 1.5 1.12
Over 2.5 1.44
Over 3.5 2.10
Over 4.5 3.50
Over 5.5 6.50
Over 6.5 13.00
Over 7.5 26.00
Over 8.5 51.00
Under 0.5 19.00
Under 1.5 6.00
Under 2.5 2.70
Under 3.5 1.67
Under 4.5 1.28
Under 5.5 1.11
Under 6.5 1.04
Under 7.5 1.01
Under 8.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.55
Draw 3.95
Home 1.87
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.55
Draw 2.48
Home 2.25
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.35
Draw 3.00
Home 2.15
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.11
Over 2.5 1.41
Over 2.75 1.50
Over 3.0 1.62
Over 3.25 1.82
Over 3.5 2.02
Over 3.75 2.30
Over 4.0 2.75
Over 4.25 3.15
Over 4.5 3.45
Over 5.5 6.25
Over 6.5 11.00
Under 1.5 6.10
Under 2.5 2.80
Under 2.75 2.48
Under 3.0 2.23
Under 3.25 1.93
Under 3.5 1.74
Under 3.75 1.58
Under 4.0 1.41
Under 4.25 1.33
Under 4.5 1.29
Under 5.5 1.10
Under 6.5 1.03

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 4 2 39:15 24 43
W D L W W
2 19 11 5 3 46:36 10 38
L D W W W
3 18 10 2 6 34:24 10 32
W W L L W
4 19 9 3 7 29:25 4 30
L L D W D
5 19 8 4 7 32:28 4 28
W L W D W
6 19 7 6 6 46:45 1 27
D W L W W
7 19 7 5 7 33:27 6 26
L D W W L
8 19 7 4 8 30:41 -11 25
L W L L W
9 19 5 9 5 27:30 -3 24
D D W D D
10 19 6 3 10 31:48 -17 21
D L W W L
11 19 5 5 9 27:31 -4 20
L D W L W
12 19 4 8 7 26:33 -7 20
W D L D D
13 19 5 4 10 28:35 -7 19
W W W W L
14 19 4 5 10 25:36 -11 17
D D L L D
15 19 4 3 12 21:34 -13 15
W L L D L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)

Missing Players

FC Cincinnati 0 missing
No missing players data
New York City FC 8 missing
-
A. O'Neill
Missing Fixture Ankle Injury
OUT
-
K. Trewin
Missing Fixture Ankle Injury
OUT
-
D. Baiera
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
Thiago Martins
Missing Fixture Leg Injury
OUT
-
M. Moralez
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
A. Farnos
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
H. Wolf
Missing Fixture Leg Injury
OUT
-
A. Martinez
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT