ARGENTINA LIGA PROFESIONAL ARGENTINA
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Ciudad de La Plata
Referee: Pablo Dovalo, Argentina
Estudiantes L.P.
Match Timeline
Independiente
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
40'
Tomás Palacios
Estudiantes L.P.
🟨
45+1'
Leonardo Godoy
Independiente
🔄
63'
Matías Abaldo ↔ Maxi Meza
Independiente
🔄
72'
Joaquín Tobio Burgos ↔ Brian Aguirre
Estudiantes L.P.
🔄
72'
Alexis Castro ↔ Fabricio Pérez
Estudiantes L.P.
76'
Gabriel Ávalos · Assist: Santiago Montiel
Independiente
81'
Guido Carrillo
Estudiantes L.P.
82'
Santiago Montiel
Independiente
🔄
84'
Leonardo Godoy ↔ Santiago Arias
Independiente
🔄
84'
Maximiliano Gutiérrez ↔ David Martínez
Independiente
🔄
85'
Ramiro Funes Mori ↔ Lucas Alario
Estudiantes L.P.
🔄
85'
Tiago Palacios ↔ Edwuin Cetré
Estudiantes L.P.
🔄
86'
Ezequiel Piovi ↔ José Sosa
Estudiantes L.P.
🔄
89'
Gabriel Ávalos ↔ Kevin Lomónaco
Independiente

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 66.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
66.8%
-
BTTS Yes
62.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
86.2%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Estudiantes L.P. Win 47.9%
Draw 18.9%
Independiente Win 33.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Estudiantes L.P.1.3
Independiente1.19
Recent Form (Last 5)
Estudiantes L.P. Estudiantes L.P.
WWDLW
32 GF / 13 GA
Independiente Independiente
WLDWL
31 GF / 25 GA
Key Stats
1.28
Average Goals Scored
1.63
0.52
Average Goals Conceded
1.32
8
BTTS Yes
13
7
Over 2.5
8
4.96
Shots on Goal
4.06

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Estudiantes L.P. Estudiantes L.P. 25 matches
Independiente Independiente 19 matches
Estudiantes L.P. Statistic Independiente
13 Wins 8
7 Draws 6
5 Losses 5
32 Goals For 31
13 Goals Against 25
1.28 Avg Goals Scored 1.63
0.52 Avg Goals Conceded 1.32
8 BTTS Yes 13
13 Over 1.5 17
7 Over 2.5 8
2 Over 3.5 5
12 Clean Sheets 5
8 Failed To Score 1
4.96 Shots On Goal 4.06
13.83 Total Shots 12.59
4.52 Corners 5.53
52% Ball Possession 52.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Estudiantes L.P. expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Independiente in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Independiente having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Independiente. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Estudiantes L.P. Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 31 points from 16 games, Estudiantes L.P. bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 9 wins, 4 draws, and 3 defeats plus a goal balance of 19:7, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by A. Castro (3 goals), A. Gaich (3 goals), Fabricio Pérez (3 goals), with creative support from B. Aguirre (2 assists), Gastón Benedetti (2 assists), J. Burgos (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, the split of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Independiente Analysis

Placed 5 with 24 points from 16 outings, Independiente continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 6 wins, 6 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 24:20 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through G. Avalos (10 goals), M. Abaldo (5 goals), M. Gutierrez (2 goals), with creative support from G. Avalos (5 assists), I. Malcorra (3 assists), M. Gutierrez (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Estudiantes L.P. won 4 times, Independiente won 4 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:17 from Estudiantes L.P.'s perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.43 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.2%)
Predicted formations: Estudiantes L.P. 4-4-2 / Independiente 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Estudiantes L.P. wins 4, draws 6, Independiente wins 4
Stats
Estudiantes L.P. Estudiantes L.P.
Independiente Independiente
Shots on Goal
3
Shots on Goal
5
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
6
Blocked Shots
6
Blocked Shots
3
5 Corner Kicks 5
15 Fouls 14
4 Offsides 1
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Goal 5
6 Shots off Goal 6
6 Blocked Shots 3
12 Shots insidebox 10
3 Shots outsidebox 4
3 Goalkeeper Saves 3
378 Total passes 260
295 Passes accurate 169
1.87 expected_goals 1.34
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Estudiantes L.P.
Formation
Independiente
Fernando Muslera
Fernando Muslera
Eric Meza
Eric Meza
Santiago Núñez
Santiago Núñez
Ramiro Funes Mori
Ramiro Funes Mori
Tomás Palacios
Tomás Palacios
Mikel Amondarain
Mikel Amondarain
Ezequiel Piovi
Ezequiel Piovi
Alexis Castro
Alexis Castro
Joaquín Tobio Burgos
Joaquín Tobio Burgos
Tiago Palacios
Tiago Palacios
Guido Carrillo
Guido Carrillo
Rodrigo Rey
Rodrigo Rey
Leonardo Godoy
Leonardo Godoy
Juan Fedorco
Juan Fedorco
Sebastián Valdez
Sebastián Valdez
Facundo Zabala
Facundo Zabala
Mateo Perez Curci
Mateo Perez Curci
Iván Marcone
Iván Marcone
Maximiliano Gutiérrez
Maximiliano Gutiérrez
Santiago Montiel
🎯
Santiago Montiel
Matías Abaldo
Matías Abaldo
Gabriel Ávalos
Gabriel Ávalos
Estudiantes L.P. 4-4-2
Starting XI
16
Fernando Muslera
G
20
Eric Meza
D
4
Santiago Núñez
D
26
Ramiro Funes Mori
↓ 85'
D
24
Tomás Palacios
🟨 40'
D
32
Mikel Amondarain
M
21
Ezequiel Piovi
↓ 86'
M
22
Alexis Castro
↓ 72'
M
17
Joaquín Tobio Burgos
↓ 72'
M
10
Tiago Palacios
↓ 85'
F
9
Guido Carrillo
⚽ 81'
F
Substitutes
29
Fabricio Pérez
↑ 72'
F
28
Brian Aguirre
↑ 72'
F
27
Lucas Alario
↑ 85'
F
18
Edwuin Cetré
↑ 85'
F
7
José Sosa
↑ 86'
M
1
Fabricio Iacovich
G
13
Gastón Benedetti
D
35
Valente Pierani
D
40
Eros Mancuso
D
8
Gabriel Neves
M
11
Facundo Farías
M
19
Adolfo Gaich
F
Independiente 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
33
Rodrigo Rey
G
29
Leonardo Godoy
↓ 84' 🟨 45+1'
D
13
Juan Fedorco
D
36
Sebastián Valdez
D
22
Facundo Zabala
D
16
Mateo Perez Curci
M
23
Iván Marcone
M
28
Maximiliano Gutiérrez
↓ 84'
M
7
Santiago Montiel
⚽ 82' 🎯 76'
M
19
Matías Abaldo
↓ 63'
M
9
Gabriel Ávalos
⚽ 76' ↓ 89'
F
Substitutes
8
Maxi Meza
↑ 63'
F
4
Santiago Arias
↑ 84'
D
32
David Martínez
↑ 84'
M
26
Kevin Lomónaco
↑ 89'
D
1
Joaquín Blázquez
G
3
Jonathan De Irastorza
D
35
Juan Miguel Arrayago
D
14
Lautaro Millán
M
20
Facundo Cruz
M
10
Luciano Cabral
M
34
Felipe Tempone
F
18
Facundo Valdéz
F
Last matches: Estudiantes L.P.
01.08.26
Lig
Estudiantes L.P.
Defensa Y Justicia
3
0
W
31.05.26
Cop
Estudiantes L.P.
Rosario Central
3
0
W
27.05.26
CON
Estudiantes L.P.
Independiente Medellin
1
0
W
21.05.26
CON
Estudiantes L.P.
Flamengo
0
1
L
10.05.26
Lig
Estudiantes L.P.
Racing Club
0
1
L
06.05.26
CON
Estudiantes L.P.
Cusco
1
1
D
03.05.26
Lig
Estudiantes L.P.
Platense
2
0
W
30.04.26
CON
Estudiantes L.P.
Flamengo
1
1
D
25.04.26
Lig
Estudiantes L.P.
Talleres Cordoba
0
0
D
18.04.26
Lig
Estudiantes L.P.
Instituto Cordoba
1
0
W
14.04.26
CON
Estudiantes L.P.
Cusco
2
1
W
11.04.26
Lig
Estudiantes L.P.
Union Santa Fe
2
1
W
09.04.26
CON
Estudiantes L.P.
Independiente Medellin
1
1
D
03.04.26
Lig
Estudiantes L.P.
San Lorenzo
0
1
L
23.03.26
Lig
Estudiantes L.P.
Central Cordoba de Santiago
5
0
W
18.03.26
Lig
Estudiantes L.P.
Gimnasia M.
2
1
W
13.03.26
Lig
Estudiantes L.P.
Lanus
0
1
L
02.03.26
Lig
Estudiantes L.P.
Velez Sarsfield
0
1
L
25.02.26
Lig
Estudiantes L.P.
Newells Old Boys
2
0
W
20.02.26
Lig
Estudiantes L.P.
Sarmiento Junin
1
0
W
Last matches: Independiente
31.07.26
Lig
Independiente
Newells Old Boys
1
0
W
22.05.26
Cop
Independiente
Union Santa Fe
2
0
W
10.05.26
Lig
Independiente
Rosario Central
1
3
L
02.05.26
Lig
Independiente
San Lorenzo
2
1
W
24.04.26
Lig
Independiente
Deportivo Riestra
0
2
L
18.04.26
Lig
Independiente
Defensa Y Justicia
3
1
W
11.04.26
Lig
Independiente
Boca Juniors
1
1
D
04.04.26
Lig
Independiente
Racing Club
1
0
W
27.03.26
Cop
Independiente
Atenas
4
2
W
21.03.26
Lig
Independiente
Talleres Cordoba
1
2
L
17.03.26
Lig
Independiente
Instituto Cordoba
1
2
L
10.03.26
Lig
Independiente
Union Santa Fe
4
4
D
28.02.26
Lig
Independiente
Central Cordoba de Santiago
2
0
W
25.02.26
Lig
Independiente
Gimnasia M.
1
1
D
21.02.26
Lig
Independiente
Independ. Rivadavia
2
3
L
13.02.26
Lig
Independiente
Lanus
2
0
W
08.02.26
Lig
Independiente
Platense
1
0
W
31.01.26
Lig
Independiente
Velez Sarsfield
1
1
D
28.01.26
Lig
Independiente
Newells Old Boys
1
1
D
23.01.26
Lig
Independiente
Estudiantes L.P.
1
1
D
H2H: Estudiantes L.P. vs Independiente
26.07.26
H2H
Estudiantes L.P.
Independiente
0
2
L
23.01.26
H2H
Independiente
Estudiantes L.P.
1
1
D
11.08.24
H2H
Estudiantes L.P.
Independiente
0
2
L
09.09.23
H2H
Independiente
Estudiantes L.P.
1
1
D
09.04.23
H2H
Independiente
Estudiantes L.P.
1
2
W
21.06.22
H2H
Independiente
Estudiantes L.P.
2
1
L
13.02.22
H2H
Estudiantes L.P.
Independiente
2
1
W
25.07.21
H2H
Estudiantes L.P.
Independiente
0
1
L
15.05.21
H2H
Estudiantes L.P.
Independiente
0
0
D
19.08.19
H2H
Estudiantes L.P.
Independiente
3
0
W
02.09.18
H2H
Estudiantes L.P.
Independiente
2
2
D
30.01.18
H2H
Independiente
Estudiantes L.P.
1
2
W
29.04.17
H2H
Independiente
Estudiantes L.P.
2
2
D
31.08.15
H2H
Independiente
Estudiantes L.P.
1
1
D
Last matches: Estudiantes L.P.
01.08.26
Lig
Estudiantes L.P.
Defensa Y Justicia
3
0
W
31.05.26
Cop
Estudiantes L.P.
Rosario Central
3
0
W
27.05.26
CON
Estudiantes L.P.
Independiente Medellin
1
0
W
10.05.26
Lig
Estudiantes L.P.
Racing Club
0
1
L
30.04.26
CON
Estudiantes L.P.
Flamengo
1
1
D
25.04.26
Lig
Estudiantes L.P.
Talleres Cordoba
0
0
D
14.04.26
CON
Estudiantes L.P.
Cusco
2
1
W
11.04.26
Lig
Estudiantes L.P.
Union Santa Fe
2
1
W
23.03.26
Lig
Estudiantes L.P.
Central Cordoba de Santiago
5
0
W
13.03.26
Lig
Estudiantes L.P.
Lanus
0
1
L
02.03.26
Lig
Estudiantes L.P.
Velez Sarsfield
0
1
L
20.02.26
Lig
Estudiantes L.P.
Sarmiento Junin
1
0
W
09.02.26
Lig
Estudiantes L.P.
Deportivo Riestra
1
0
W
29.01.26
Lig
Estudiantes L.P.
Boca Juniors
2
1
W
20.01.26
Cop
Estudiantes L.P.
Ituzaingó
4
0
W
H2H at home: Estudiantes L.P.
26.07.26
H2H
Estudiantes L.P.
Independiente
0
2
L
11.08.24
H2H
Estudiantes L.P.
Independiente
0
2
L
13.02.22
H2H
Estudiantes L.P.
Independiente
2
1
W
25.07.21
H2H
Estudiantes L.P.
Independiente
0
1
L
15.05.21
H2H
Estudiantes L.P.
Independiente
0
0
D
19.08.19
H2H
Estudiantes L.P.
Independiente
3
0
W
02.09.18
H2H
Estudiantes L.P.
Independiente
2
2
D
Last matches: Independiente
22.05.26
Cop
Independiente
Union Santa Fe
2
0
W
10.05.26
Lig
Independiente
Rosario Central
1
3
L
02.05.26
Lig
Independiente
San Lorenzo
2
1
W
24.04.26
Lig
Independiente
Deportivo Riestra
0
2
L
11.04.26
Lig
Independiente
Boca Juniors
1
1
D
17.03.26
Lig
Independiente
Instituto Cordoba
1
2
L
25.02.26
Lig
Independiente
Gimnasia M.
1
1
D
21.02.26
Lig
Independiente
Independ. Rivadavia
2
3
L
08.02.26
Lig
Independiente
Platense
1
0
W
28.01.26
Lig
Independiente
Newells Old Boys
1
1
D
H2H away: Independiente
26.07.26
H2H
Estudiantes L.P.
Independiente
0
2
W
11.08.24
H2H
Estudiantes L.P.
Independiente
0
2
W
13.02.22
H2H
Estudiantes L.P.
Independiente
2
1
L
25.07.21
H2H
Estudiantes L.P.
Independiente
0
1
W
15.05.21
H2H
Estudiantes L.P.
Independiente
0
0
D
19.08.19
H2H
Estudiantes L.P.
Independiente
3
0
L
02.09.18
H2H
Estudiantes L.P.
Independiente
2
2
D