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COLOMBIA › PRIMERA A
26.10.2026 01:15
Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro

Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 63.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 62.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
63.8%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
62.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
62.1%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
90.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Deportes Tolima Win 38.8%
Draw 25%
Deportivo Pasto Win 36.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Deportes Tolima1.26
Deportivo Pasto1.12
Recent Form (Last 5)
Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima
WWDLW
60 GF / 51 GA
Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto
WLDWL
40 GF / 46 GA
Key Stats
1.2
Average Goals Scored
1.18
1.02
Average Goals Conceded
1.35
22
BTTS Yes
16
21
Over 2.5
16
4.68
Shots on Goal
3.58

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 50 matches
Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 34 matches
Deportes Tolima Statistic Deportivo Pasto
19 Wins 13
14 Draws 7
17 Losses 14
60 Goals For 40
51 Goals Against 46
1.2 Avg Goals Scored 1.18
1.02 Avg Goals Conceded 1.35
22 BTTS Yes 16
32 Over 1.5 24
21 Over 2.5 16
11 Over 3.5 7
18 Clean Sheets 11
17 Failed To Score 10
4.68 Shots On Goal 3.58
13.08 Total Shots 11.67
4.96 Corners 4.12
56.7% Ball Possession 52.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Deportivo Pasto having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Deportivo Pasto.

Deportes Tolima Analysis

So far, Deportes Tolima have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 31 points from 19 matches. Their overall return of 8 wins, 7 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 27:17 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by L. Sandoval (8 goals), A. Parra (8 goals), Juan Torres (6 goals), with creative support from L. Sandoval (5 assists), Juan Torres (4 assists), S. Guzmán (4 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have returned 7 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Deportivo Pasto Analysis

Deportivo Pasto arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 3 place with 34 points after 19 matches. Their overall return of 10 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 29:25 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Santiago Córdoba (5 goals), D. Chávez (4 goals), Jonathan Perlaza (2 goals), with creative support from D. Chávez (3 assists), E. Serje (2 assists), M. Gil (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Deportes Tolima won 9 times, Deportivo Pasto won 5 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:14 from Deportes Tolima's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.47 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (75%)
Predicted formations: Deportes Tolima 4-4-2 / Deportivo Pasto -
H2H summary: Deportes Tolima wins 9, draws 1, Deportivo Pasto wins 5

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
W D W D L
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
D D D L L
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
D L W W D
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
D L W W D
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
W W D L L
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
L L D D D
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
L W W L W
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
D D D L L
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
D D W W W
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
W D D D W
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
L W L D L
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
W D D W L
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
D D W W W
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
W L L L W
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
D D D L D
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
L W L L L
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
D L W L W
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
L L D W L
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
W W W L L
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
D D L L D
Post season qualification