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COLOMBIA › PRIMERA A
20.10.2026 23:30
Estadio General Santander
Referee: Andres Rojas

Cucuta vs Atletico Nacional Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 51.7%
Odds 1.56
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75%
Odds 1.80
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 1.74
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
51.7%
1.56 ▥
BTTS Yes
75%
1.80 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
1.74 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
89.4%
1.24 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
4.33 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
8.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Cucuta Win 35.3%
Draw 13%
Atletico Nacional Win 51.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cucuta1.1
Atletico Nacional1.8
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cucuta Cucuta
WWDLW
39 GF / 55 GA
Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional
WLDWL
77 GF / 40 GA
Key Stats
1.18
Average Goals Scored
1.88
1.67
Average Goals Conceded
0.98
20
BTTS Yes
20
17
Over 2.5
26
3.63
Shots on Goal
6.22

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cucuta Cucuta 33 matches
Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 41 matches
Cucuta Statistic Atletico Nacional
8 Wins 26
11 Draws 4
14 Losses 11
39 Goals For 77
55 Goals Against 40
1.18 Avg Goals Scored 1.88
1.67 Avg Goals Conceded 0.98
20 BTTS Yes 20
28 Over 1.5 32
17 Over 2.5 26
11 Over 3.5 10
7 Clean Sheets 12
7 Failed To Score 11
3.63 Shots On Goal 6.22
9.13 Total Shots 16.41
3.53 Corners 5.41
43.7% Ball Possession 58.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Atletico Nacional's more proactive style and Cucuta's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Cucuta expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Atletico Nacional in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Atletico Nacional having the stronger overall control. Atletico Nacional carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 40 points while Cucuta sit 19 on 16, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Atletico Nacional.

Cucuta Analysis

With 16 points from 19 games and a place of 19, Cucuta still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 3 wins, 7 draws, and 9 defeats, and the 22:35 goal record continues to suggest good form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking burden often falls on J. Peralta (9 goals), L. Berdugo (6 goals), Luifer Hernández (5 goals), with creative support from L. Berdugo (7 assists), K. Tamayo (3 assists), J. Peralta (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, the split record of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Atletico Nacional Analysis

Atletico Nacional come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 1 with 40 points from 19 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 13 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses, while the 35:15 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on A. Morelos (13 goals), A. Sarmiento (8 goals), J. Rengifo (7 goals), with creative support from J. Rengifo (7 assists), A. Morelos (6 assists), A. Sarmiento (6 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 5 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Cucuta won 1 times, Atletico Nacional won 6 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:16 from Cucuta's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.63 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87%)
Predicted formations: Cucuta 4-3-3 / Atletico Nacional 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Cucuta wins 1, draws 1, Atletico Nacional wins 6

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
W D W D L
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
D D D L L
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
D L W W D
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
D L W W D
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
W W D L L
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
L L D D D
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
L W W L W
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
D D D L L
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
D D W W W
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
W D D D W
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
L W L D L
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
W D D W L
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
D D W W W
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
W L L L W
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
D D D L D
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
L W L L L
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
D L W L W
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
L L D W L
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
W W W L L
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
D D L L D
Post season qualification