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COLOMBIA › PRIMERA A
20.10.2026 01:05
Estadio Departamental Libertad
Referee: Alvaro Jose Melendez Panneflek, Colombia
Deportivo Pasto
Match Timeline
Alianza Valledupar
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
36'
K. Moreno
Alianza Valledupar
⚽
39'
I. Alba
Alianza Valledupar
🔄
61'
J. Micolta Piedahita ↔ P. Preciado
Deportivo Pasto
🔄
61'
Y. Goez ↔ M. Gil
Deportivo Pasto
🔄
69'
L. Palacios ↔ F. Pardo
Alianza Valledupar
🔄
69'
C. Vergara ↔ Y. Londono
Alianza Valledupar
🔄
70'
E. C. Serje Orozco ↔ H. Mancilla
Deportivo Pasto
🔄
70'
F. Leys ↔ M. Pisano
Deportivo Pasto
🟨
76'
F. Pardo
Alianza Valledupar
🔄
78'
J. Figueroa ↔ P. Franco
Alianza Valledupar
🟨
81'
J. Lasso
Alianza Valledupar
🔄
82'
I. Alba ↔ Y. Rosales
Alianza Valledupar
🔄
82'
J. Munoz ↔ D. Quinones
Alianza Valledupar
🔄
86'
J. Perlaza ↔ J. Quinones
Deportivo Pasto
🟥
90+3'
D. Quinones
Alianza Valledupar

Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Valledupar Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 68.1%
Odds 1.17
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 2.00
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 2.12
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
68.1%
1.17 ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
2.00 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
2.12 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
88%
1.41 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.75 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Deportivo Pasto Win 49.9%
Draw 18.2%
Alianza Valledupar Win 31.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Deportivo Pasto1.36
Alianza Valledupar1.05
Recent Form (Last 5)
Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto
WWDLW
40 GF / 46 GA
Alianza Valledupar Alianza Valledupar
WLDWL
28 GF / 54 GA
Key Stats
1.18
Average Goals Scored
0.85
1.35
Average Goals Conceded
1.64
16
BTTS Yes
18
16
Over 2.5
15
3.58
Shots on Goal
3.06

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 34 matches
Alianza Valledupar Alianza Valledupar 33 matches
Deportivo Pasto Statistic Alianza Valledupar
13 Wins 6
7 Draws 12
14 Losses 15
40 Goals For 28
46 Goals Against 54
1.18 Avg Goals Scored 0.85
1.35 Avg Goals Conceded 1.64
16 BTTS Yes 18
24 Over 1.5 23
16 Over 2.5 15
7 Over 3.5 8
11 Clean Sheets 6
10 Failed To Score 12
3.58 Shots On Goal 3.06
11.67 Total Shots 11.34
4.12 Corners 4.22
52.5% Ball Possession 44.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Deportivo Pasto's more proactive style and Alianza Valledupar's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Alianza Valledupar. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Deportivo Pasto arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 34 points compared to Alianza Valledupar in 17 on 17, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Deportivo Pasto expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Alianza Valledupar in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Alianza Valledupar having the stronger overall control.

Deportivo Pasto Analysis

Deportivo Pasto arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 3 place with 34 points after 19 matches. The record of 10 wins, 4 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 29:25 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Santiago Córdoba (5 goals), D. Chávez (4 goals), Jonathan Perlaza (2 goals), with creative support from D. Chávez (3 assists), E. Serje (2 assists), M. Gil (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Alianza Valledupar Analysis

With 17 points from 19 games and a place of 17, Alianza Valledupar still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 3 wins, 8 draws, and 8 losses, together with goals at 13:27, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through F. Pardo (4 goals), J. Muñoz (3 goals), C. Vergara (3 goals), with creative support from J. Lasso (4 assists), F. Pardo (3 assists), W. Fernández (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Deportivo Pasto won 4 times, Alianza Valledupar won 4 times, while 7 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:16 from Deportivo Pasto's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.07 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.8%)
Predicted formations: Deportivo Pasto 4-4-2 / Alianza Valledupar 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Deportivo Pasto wins 4, draws 7, Alianza Valledupar wins 4

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
W D W D L
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
D D D L L
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
D L W W D
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
D L W W D
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
W W D L L
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
L L D D D
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
L W W L W
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
D D D L L
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
D D W W W
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
W D D D W
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
L W L D L
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
W D D W L
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
D D W W W
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
W L L L W
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
D D D L D
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
L W L L L
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
D L W L W
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
L L D W L
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
W W W L L
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
D D L L D
Post season qualification