BRAZIL SERIE A
--.--.---- --:--
Governador Magalhães Pinto
Referee: R. Pereira
Cruzeiro
Match Timeline
Flamengo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
20'
Fabrício Bruno
Cruzeiro
22'
Pedro · Assist: G. de Arrascaeta
Flamengo
🟨
36'
João Marcelo
Cruzeiro
🔄
46'
J. Costa ↔ Wesley
Cruzeiro
55'
K. Arroyo · Assist: Matheus Henrique
Cruzeiro
🔄
63'
G. de Arrascaeta ↔ Jorginho
Flamengo
🔄
63'
Samuel Lino ↔ G. Plata
Flamengo
🔄
72'
E. Pulgar ↔ Evertton Araujo
Flamengo
🔄
72'
Lucas Paqueta ↔ Bruno Henrique
Flamengo
🔄
75'
L. Romero ↔ Gerson
Cruzeiro
🔄
75'
K. Arroyo ↔ Kenji
Cruzeiro
🔄
75'
Kaio Jorge ↔ N. Villarreal
Cruzeiro
🟨
82'
Bruno Henrique
Flamengo
🔄
83'
Pedro ↔ Luiz Araujo
Flamengo
🟨
86'
Wesley
Cruzeiro
🔄
86'
Matheus Henrique ↔ Ze Lucas
Cruzeiro
90'
Matheus Pereira · Assist: L. Villalba
Cruzeiro

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 51%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 63.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
51%
-
BTTS Yes
63.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Cruzeiro Win 35.6%
Draw 13.5%
Flamengo Win 51%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cruzeiro1.16
Flamengo1.73
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cruzeiro Cruzeiro
WWDLW
45 GF / 41 GA
Flamengo Flamengo
WLDWL
68 GF / 28 GA
Key Stats
1.36
Average Goals Scored
2.06
1.24
Average Goals Conceded
0.85
20
BTTS Yes
18
18
Over 2.5
19
4.42
Shots on Goal
5.97

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 33 matches
Flamengo Flamengo 33 matches
Cruzeiro Statistic Flamengo
14 Wins 21
9 Draws 9
10 Losses 3
45 Goals For 68
41 Goals Against 28
1.36 Avg Goals Scored 2.06
1.24 Avg Goals Conceded 0.85
20 BTTS Yes 18
26 Over 1.5 31
18 Over 2.5 19
8 Over 3.5 8
10 Clean Sheets 13
5 Failed To Score 2
4.42 Shots On Goal 5.97
13.77 Total Shots 15.83
4.9 Corners 4.52
54.6% Ball Possession 56.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Flamengo's more proactive style and Cruzeiro's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Flamengo. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Cruzeiro Analysis

Cruzeiro come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 5 place with 33 points after 22 matches. The return of 9 wins, 6 draws, and 7 defeats, together with goals at 30:31, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through Kaio Jorge (6 goals), Matheus Pereira (5 goals), Christian (4 goals), with creative support from Fagner (4 assists), Christian (3 assists), Lucas Romero (3 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. At home, their record of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as a more cautious and defensive approach.

Flamengo Analysis

Operating from 2 place with 42 points from 21 games, Flamengo bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 12 wins, 6 draws, and 3 defeats, together with goals at 39:18, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through Pedro (12 goals), Samuel Lino (5 goals), Giorgian de Arrascaeta (3 goals), with creative support from Samuel Lino (7 assists), Pedro (4 assists), Bruno Henrique (3 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, the split of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Cruzeiro won 2 times, Flamengo won 10 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:23 from Cruzeiro's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.2 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.6%)
Predicted formations: Cruzeiro 4-2-3-1 / Flamengo 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Cruzeiro 4, Flamengo 4
H2H summary: Cruzeiro wins 2, draws 3, Flamengo wins 10

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 15 7 3 45:21 24 52
D W L D W
2 24 14 6 4 48:21 27 48
W L W W D
3 25 13 6 6 37:25 12 45
D W D W D
4 25 11 9 5 39:32 7 42
D W W D D
5 25 10 10 5 37:30 7 40
W W D D D
6 25 11 6 8 35:36 -1 39
L W W W W
7 24 10 6 8 32:28 4 36
W D W D W
8 24 10 5 9 29:25 4 35
L W D L D
9 24 9 7 8 30:31 -1 34
W D W L D
10 25 8 8 9 26:25 1 32
L L L W D
11 24 8 6 10 29:28 1 30
W L D L D
12 24 8 6 10 37:40 -3 30
L L L D W
13 25 8 5 12 24:37 -13 29
L L W L L
14 24 7 8 9 34:36 -2 29
W D W L D
15 24 7 7 10 27:32 -5 28
W L L W D
16 24 6 7 11 27:37 -10 25
D D L L W
17 24 6 7 11 27:39 -12 25
W L L D D
18 25 5 10 10 26:31 -5 25
L D D D D
19 24 5 8 11 28:39 -11 23
L D D L W
20 24 2 8 14 25:49 -24 14
L W D L D
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B