BRAZIL SERIE A
06.09.2026 19:00
Governador Magalhães Pinto
Referee: Daiane Caroline Muniz Dos Santos, Brazil
Cruzeiro
Match Timeline
Atletico Paranaense
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
30'
Matheus Pereira · Assist: Gerson
Cruzeiro
🟨
33'
Gabriel Rojas
Cruzeiro
45+8'
Matheus Pereira
Cruzeiro
VAR
45+6'
Matheus Pereira
Cruzeiro
VAR
45'
Matheus Henrique
Cruzeiro
45'
Joao Cruz
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
46'
G. Rojas ↔ L. Villalba
Cruzeiro
🔄
46'
Arthur Dias ↔ L. Esquivel
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
46'
Jadson ↔ J. Portilla
Atletico Paranaense
🟨
62'
Juan Felipe Aguirre
Atletico Paranaense
🟨
64'
Fabrício Bruno
Cruzeiro
🔄
65'
Joao Cruz ↔ B. Zapelli
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
65'
Leozinho ↔ K. A. Calderon Vargas
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
70'
K. Arroyo ↔ Wesley
Cruzeiro
71'
L. Romero · Assist: Matheus Pereira
Cruzeiro
🟨
79'
Mycael
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
81'
K. Viveros ↔ Renan Peixoto
Atletico Paranaense
82'
Kaio Jorge
Cruzeiro
🔄
87'
Gerson ↔ J. Costa
Cruzeiro
🔄
90+2'
Matheus Henrique ↔ Ze Lucas
Cruzeiro
🔄
90+2'
Kaio Jorge ↔ L. Rodriguez
Cruzeiro

Cruzeiro vs Atletico Paranaense Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 44.6%
Odds 4.46
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds 1.80
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 2.04
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
44.6%
4.46
BTTS Yes
75.1%
1.80
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
2.04
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
79.1%
1.24
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
8.50
Correct Score 1-2
-
17.00
Probability Distribution
Cruzeiro Win 40%
Draw 15.4%
Atletico Paranaense Win 44.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cruzeiro1.24
Atletico Paranaense1.36
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cruzeiro Cruzeiro
WWDLW
48 GF / 45 GA
Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense
WLDWL
38 GF / 28 GA
Key Stats
1.37
Average Goals Scored
1.41
1.29
Average Goals Conceded
1.04
22
BTTS Yes
14
20
Over 2.5
12
4.52
Shots on Goal
4.8

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 35 matches
Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 27 matches
Cruzeiro Statistic Atletico Paranaense
15 Wins 13
9 Draws 6
11 Losses 8
48 Goals For 38
45 Goals Against 28
1.37 Avg Goals Scored 1.41
1.29 Avg Goals Conceded 1.04
22 BTTS Yes 14
28 Over 1.5 19
20 Over 2.5 12
9 Over 3.5 5
10 Clean Sheets 8
5 Failed To Score 7
4.52 Shots On Goal 4.8
14 Total Shots 12.08
4.76 Corners 4.84
54.4% Ball Possession 47%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Cruzeiro come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Atletico Paranaense. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Cruzeiro expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Atletico Paranaense in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Atletico Paranaense having the stronger overall control.

Cruzeiro Analysis

Cruzeiro come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 5 place with 39 points after 24 matches. The return of 11 wins, 6 draws, and 7 defeats, together with goals at 34:33, reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through Kaio Jorge (6 goals), Matheus Pereira (5 goals), Christian (4 goals), with creative support from Fagner (4 assists), Christian (3 assists), Lucas Romero (3 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. At home, their record of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Atletico Paranaense Analysis

Atletico Paranaense come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 3 place with 44 points after 24 matches. With 13 wins, 5 draws, and 6 defeats plus a goal balance of 34:22, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Kevin Viveros (16 goals), Steven Mendoza (4 goals), Julimar (3 goals), with creative support from Gastón Benavídez (5 assists), João Cruz (4 assists), Lucas Esquivel (3 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their record of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Cruzeiro won 5 times, Atletico Paranaense won 6 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:20 from Cruzeiro's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.6%)
Predicted formations: Cruzeiro 4-2-3-1 / Atletico Paranaense 3-4-2-1
Missing players: Cruzeiro 4, Atletico Paranaense 4
H2H summary: Cruzeiro wins 5, draws 4, Atletico Paranaense wins 6

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 16 8 3 47:21 26 56
W D D W L
2 26 16 6 4 51:21 30 54
W W W L W
3 27 13 7 7 41:31 10 46
D L D W D
4 27 12 9 6 41:35 6 45
L W D W W
5 26 11 10 5 40:32 8 43
W W W D D
6 27 12 6 9 39:39 0 42
L W L W W
7 26 11 6 9 35:31 4 39
W L W D W
8 27 10 8 9 37:38 -1 38
D L W W D
9 26 10 6 10 32:29 3 36
D L L W D
10 26 9 8 9 39:39 0 35
W W W D W
11 26 9 6 11 31:30 1 33
L W W L D
12 27 9 6 12 27:39 -12 33
D W L L W
13 26 8 8 10 27:27 0 32
L L L L W
14 26 8 8 10 38:41 -3 32
D D L L L
15 27 7 8 12 31:42 -11 29
D W L D D
16 26 7 7 12 28:35 -7 28
L L W L L
17 26 7 7 12 29:41 -12 28
W L W L L
18 27 6 10 11 30:35 -5 28
W L L D D
19 26 5 8 13 30:43 -13 23
L L L D D
20 26 3 8 15 28:52 -24 17
L W L W D
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B