BRAZIL › SERIE A
03.05.2026 00:00
Governador Magalhaes Pinto
Referee: F. Rodrigues
Cruzeiro
Match Timeline
Atletico-MG
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
5'
Ruan Tressoldi
Atletico-MG
⚽
12'
A. Minda · Assist: M. Cassierra
Atletico-MG
⚽
32'
Maycon
Atletico-MG
🔄
40'
Kaua Moraes ↔ N. Villarreal
Cruzeiro
🟨
45+2'
A. Franco
Atletico-MG
🟨
56'
Lyanco
Atletico-MG
🟨
56'
Christian
Cruzeiro
🔄
62'
Christian ↔ Wanderson
Cruzeiro
🔄
62'
L. Romero ↔ Bruno Rodrigues
Cruzeiro
🟨
65'
K. Arroyo
Cruzeiro
🔄
65'
A. Minda ↔ Reinier
Atletico-MG
🟨
66'
K. Arroyo
Cruzeiro
🟥
66'
K. Arroyo
Cruzeiro
🟨
69'
M. Cassierra
Atletico-MG
🟨
72'
Matheus Pereira
Cruzeiro
🟨
72'
Reinier
Atletico-MG
⚽
72'
M. Cassierra · Assist: R. Lodi
Atletico-MG
🟥
75'
Kaiki
Cruzeiro
🔄
77'
Bernard ↔ K. Pascini
Atletico-MG
🔄
78'
Matheus Pereira ↔ Matheus Henrique
Cruzeiro
🔄
78'
Gerson ↔ Joao Marcelo
Cruzeiro
🟨
79'
Lyanco
Atletico-MG
🟥
79'
Lyanco
Atletico-MG
🟨
84'
J. Alonso
Atletico-MG
⚽
86'
Kaio Jorge
Cruzeiro
🔄
88'
M. Cassierra ↔ Caua
Atletico-MG
🔄
89'
Maycon ↔ T. Perez
Atletico-MG

Cruzeiro vs Atletico-MG Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 82.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 40.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 32.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
82.7%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
40.6%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
32.7%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Cruzeiro Win 82.7%
Draw 0%
Atletico-MG Win 17.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cruzeiro1.33
Atletico-MG1.22
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cruzeiro Cruzeiro
WWDLW
20 GF / 23 GA
Atletico-MG Atletico-MG
WLDWL
14 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
1.25
Average Goals Scored
1.08
1.44
Average Goals Conceded
1.46
8
BTTS Yes
4
9
Over 2.5
6
4.56
Shots on Goal
4.46

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 16 matches
Atletico-MG Atletico-MG 13 matches
Cruzeiro Statistic Atletico-MG
6 Wins 4
4 Draws 2
6 Losses 7
20 Goals For 14
23 Goals Against 19
1.25 Avg Goals Scored 1.08
1.44 Avg Goals Conceded 1.46
8 BTTS Yes 4
12 Over 1.5 8
9 Over 2.5 6
4 Over 3.5 4
6 Clean Sheets 3
3 Failed To Score 6
4.56 Shots On Goal 4.46
12.88 Total Shots 14.23
4.56 Corners 5.54
55% Ball Possession 51%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Atletico-MG. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Cruzeiro expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Atletico-MG in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Atletico-MG having the stronger overall control. Cruzeiro come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Cruzeiro Analysis

From their first 13 matches, Cruzeiro have collected 16 points and now occupy 12 place in the table. The record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 17:21 goal balance, points toward very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking threat comes through Christian (5 goals), N. Villarreal (3 goals), Kaio Jorge (2 goals), with creative support from Matheus Pereira (2 assists), Keny Arroyo (2 assists), L. Romero (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Atletico-MG Analysis

Atletico-MG sit 15 with 14 points after 13 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 7 defeats with a 14:19 goal balance points toward mixed form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on Victor Hugo (3 goals), Cuello (2 goals), Dudu (2 goals), with creative support from Hulk (3 assists), Victor Hugo (1 assists), Cuello (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 0 draws, and 6 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Cruzeiro won 4 times, Atletico-MG won 5 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:17 from Cruzeiro's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.07 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Cruzeiro 4-2-3-1 / Atletico-MG 4-4-2
Missing players: Cruzeiro 3, Atletico-MG 2
H2H summary: Cruzeiro wins 4, draws 6, Atletico-MG wins 5

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 18 6 4 55:23 32 60
W W W W W
2 28 16 9 3 47:21 26 57
D W D D W
3 28 14 7 7 43:32 11 49
W D L D W
4 28 13 9 6 44:36 8 48
W L W D W
5 28 12 10 6 43:35 8 46
L W W W W
6 28 13 6 9 42:40 2 45
W L W L W
7 27 11 7 9 36:32 4 40
D W L W D
8 27 10 8 9 41:40 1 38
W W W W D
9 28 10 8 10 37:43 -6 38
L D L W W
10 27 10 6 11 33:31 2 36
L D L L W
11 27 10 6 11 32:30 2 36
W L W W L
12 28 9 8 11 41:45 -4 35
L W D D L
13 28 9 6 13 28:42 -14 33
L D W L L
14 28 8 8 12 29:32 -3 32
L L L L L
15 28 8 8 12 33:42 -9 32
W D W L D
16 27 8 7 12 34:41 -7 31
W W L W L
17 28 7 8 13 30:38 -8 29
D L L L W
18 28 6 10 12 30:36 -6 28
L W L L D
19 28 5 8 15 32:47 -15 23
L L L L L
20 27 3 9 15 29:53 -24 18
D L W L W
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B