BRAZIL SERIE A
--.--.---- --:--
Governador Magalhães Pinto
Referee: F. Rodrigues
Cruzeiro
Match Timeline
Atletico-MG
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
5'
Ruan Tressoldi
Atletico-MG
12'
A. Minda · Assist: M. Cassierra
Atletico-MG
32'
Maycon
Atletico-MG
🔄
40'
Kaua Moraes ↔ N. Villarreal
Cruzeiro
🟨
45+2'
A. Franco
Atletico-MG
🟨
56'
Lyanco
Atletico-MG
🟨
56'
Christian
Cruzeiro
🔄
62'
Christian ↔ Wanderson
Cruzeiro
🔄
62'
L. Romero ↔ Bruno Rodrigues
Cruzeiro
🟨
65'
K. Arroyo
Cruzeiro
🔄
65'
A. Minda ↔ Reinier
Atletico-MG
🟨
66'
K. Arroyo
Cruzeiro
🟥
66'
K. Arroyo
Cruzeiro
🟨
69'
M. Cassierra
Atletico-MG
🟨
72'
Matheus Pereira
Cruzeiro
🟨
72'
Reinier
Atletico-MG
72'
M. Cassierra · Assist: R. Lodi
Atletico-MG
🟥
75'
Kaiki
Cruzeiro
🔄
77'
Bernard ↔ K. Pascini
Atletico-MG
🔄
78'
Matheus Pereira ↔ Matheus Henrique
Cruzeiro
🔄
78'
Gerson ↔ Joao Marcelo
Cruzeiro
🟨
79'
Lyanco
Atletico-MG
🟥
79'
Lyanco
Atletico-MG
🟨
84'
J. Alonso
Atletico-MG
86'
Kaio Jorge
Cruzeiro
🔄
88'
M. Cassierra ↔ Caua
Atletico-MG
🔄
89'
Maycon ↔ T. Perez
Atletico-MG

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 82.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 40.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 32.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
82.7%
-
BTTS BTTS No
40.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
32.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Cruzeiro Win 82.7%
Draw 0%
Atletico-MG Win 17.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cruzeiro1.33
Atletico-MG1.22
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cruzeiro Cruzeiro
WWDLW
20 GF / 23 GA
Atletico-MG Atletico-MG
WLDWL
14 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
1.25
Average Goals Scored
1.08
1.44
Average Goals Conceded
1.46
8
BTTS Yes
4
9
Over 2.5
6
4.56
Shots on Goal
4.46

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 16 matches
Atletico-MG Atletico-MG 13 matches
Cruzeiro Statistic Atletico-MG
6 Wins 4
4 Draws 2
6 Losses 7
20 Goals For 14
23 Goals Against 19
1.25 Avg Goals Scored 1.08
1.44 Avg Goals Conceded 1.46
8 BTTS Yes 4
12 Over 1.5 8
9 Over 2.5 6
4 Over 3.5 4
6 Clean Sheets 3
3 Failed To Score 6
4.56 Shots On Goal 4.46
12.88 Total Shots 14.23
4.56 Corners 5.54
55% Ball Possession 51%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Atletico-MG. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Cruzeiro expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Atletico-MG in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Atletico-MG having the stronger overall control. Cruzeiro come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Cruzeiro Analysis

From their first 13 matches, Cruzeiro have collected 16 points and now occupy 12 place in the table. The record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 17:21 goal balance, points toward very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking threat comes through Christian (5 goals), N. Villarreal (3 goals), Kaio Jorge (2 goals), with creative support from Matheus Pereira (2 assists), Keny Arroyo (2 assists), L. Romero (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Atletico-MG Analysis

Atletico-MG sit 15 with 14 points after 13 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 7 defeats with a 14:19 goal balance points toward mixed form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on Victor Hugo (3 goals), Cuello (2 goals), Dudu (2 goals), with creative support from Hulk (3 assists), Victor Hugo (1 assists), Cuello (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 0 draws, and 6 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Cruzeiro won 5 times, Atletico-MG won 5 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:16 from Cruzeiro's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Cruzeiro 4-2-3-1 / Atletico-MG 4-4-2
Missing players: Cruzeiro 3, Atletico-MG 2
H2H summary: Cruzeiro wins 5, draws 5, Atletico-MG wins 5
Stats
Cruzeiro Cruzeiro
Atletico-MG Atletico-MG
Shots on Goal
2
Shots on Goal
4
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
1
Blocked Shots
6
Blocked Shots
1
5 Corner Kicks 1
15 Fouls 17
0 Offsides 0
69% Ball Possession 31%
14 Total Shots 6
2 Shots on Goal 4
6 Shots off Goal 1
6 Blocked Shots 1
6 Shots insidebox 6
8 Shots outsidebox 0
1 Goalkeeper Saves 1
495 Total passes 230
435 Passes accurate 173
1.31 expected_goals 1.74
🟨 4 Yellow Cards 7 🟨
🟥 2 Red Cards 1 🟥

Lineups

Cruzeiro
Formation
Atletico-MG
Otavio Costa
Otavio Costa
Kaua Moraes
Kaua Moraes
Fabricio Bruno
Fabricio Bruno
Jonathan Jesus
Jonathan Jesus
Kaiki
Kaiki
L. Romero
L. Romero
Gerson
Gerson
K. Arroyo
K. Arroyo
Matheus Pereira
Matheus Pereira
Christian
Christian
Kaio Jorge
Kaio Jorge
Everson
Everson
Lyanco
Lyanco
Ruan Tressoldi
Ruan Tressoldi
J. Alonso
J. Alonso
Natanael
Natanael
A. Franco
A. Franco
Maycon
Maycon
R. Lodi
🎯
R. Lodi
A. Minda
A. Minda
Bernard
Bernard
M. Cassierra
🎯
M. Cassierra
Cruzeiro 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
81
Otavio Costa
G
2
Kaua Moraes
↓ 40'
D
15
Fabricio Bruno
D
34
Jonathan Jesus
D
6
Kaiki
🟥 75'
D
29
L. Romero
↓ 62'
M
11
Gerson
↓ 78'
M
99
K. Arroyo
🟨 65' 🟨 66' 🟥 66'
M
10
Matheus Pereira
↓ 78' 🟨 72'
M
88
Christian
↓ 62' 🟨 56'
M
19
Kaio Jorge
⚽ 86'
F
Substitutes
31
Matheus Cunha
G
23
Fagner
D
25
L. Villalba
D
94
Wanderson
↑ 62'
F
9
Bruno Rodrigues
↑ 62'
F
16
Lucas Silva
M
12
William Furtado
D
17
L. Sinisterra
F
8
Matheus Henrique
↑ 78'
M
43
Joao Marcelo
↑ 78'
D
70
Kenji
F
22
N. Villarreal
↑ 40'
M
Atletico-MG 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
22
Everson
G
13
Lyanco
🟨 56' 🟨 79' 🟥 79'
D
4
Ruan Tressoldi
🟨 5'
D
6
J. Alonso
🟨 84'
D
2
Natanael
M
21
A. Franco
🟨 45+2'
M
8
Maycon
⚽ 32' ↓ 89'
M
16
R. Lodi
🎯 72'
M
27
A. Minda
⚽ 12' ↓ 65'
F
11
Bernard
↓ 77'
F
9
M. Cassierra
⚽ 72' 🎯 12' ↓ 88' 🟨 69'
F
Substitutes
1
Gabriel Delfim
G
23
A. Preciado
D
19
Reinier
↑ 65' 🟨 72'
M
5
Alexsander
M
3
I. Roman
D
48
Mateus Iseppe
M
92
Dudu
F
10
Gustavo Scarpa
M
17
Igor Gomes
M
25
T. Perez
↑ 89'
M
29
Caua
↑ 88'
F
36
K. Pascini
↑ 77'
D
Last matches: Cruzeiro
04.07.26
Fri
Cruzeiro
Defensor Sporting
2
0
W
31.05.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Fluminense
1
1
D
29.05.26
CON
Cruzeiro
Barcelona SC
4
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Chapecoense-sc
2
1
W
20.05.26
CON
Cruzeiro
Boca Juniors
1
1
D
17.05.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Palmeiras
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Bahia
2
1
W
07.05.26
CON
Cruzeiro
U. Catolica
0
0
D
29.04.26
CON
Cruzeiro
Boca Juniors
1
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Remo
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Gremio
2
0
W
15.04.26
CON
Cruzeiro
U. Catolica
1
2
L
12.04.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
RB Bragantino
2
1
W
08.04.26
CON
Cruzeiro
Barcelona SC
1
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Sao Paulo
1
4
L
01.04.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Vitoria
3
0
W
22.03.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Santos
0
0
D
18.03.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Atletico Paranaense
1
2
L
15.03.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Vasco DA Gama
3
3
D
12.03.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Flamengo
0
2
L
Last matches: Atletico-MG
31.05.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Vasco DA Gama
1
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Corinthians
0
1
L
16.05.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Mirassol
3
1
W
10.05.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Botafogo
1
1
D
26.04.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Flamengo
0
4
L
19.04.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Coritiba
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Santos
0
1
L
05.04.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Atletico Paranaense
2
1
W
02.04.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Chapecoense-sc
4
0
W
21.03.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Fluminense
0
1
L
18.03.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Sao Paulo
1
0
W
14.03.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Vitoria
0
2
L
11.03.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Internacional
1
0
W
26.02.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Gremio
1
2
L
11.02.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Remo
3
3
D
04.02.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
RB Bragantino
0
1
L
28.01.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Palmeiras
2
2
D
H2H: Cruzeiro vs Atletico-MG
03.05.26
H2H
Cruzeiro
Atletico-MG
1
3
L
08.03.26
H2H
Cruzeiro
Atletico-MG
1
0
W
25.01.26
H2H
Atletico-MG
Cruzeiro
2
1
L
16.10.25
H2H
Atletico-MG
Cruzeiro
1
1
D
11.09.25
H2H
Cruzeiro
Atletico-MG
2
0
W
27.08.25
H2H
Atletico-MG
Cruzeiro
0
2
W
18.05.25
H2H
Cruzeiro
Atletico-MG
0
0
D
09.02.25
H2H
Cruzeiro
Atletico-MG
0
2
L
18.01.25
H2H
Atletico-MG
Cruzeiro
0
0
D
11.08.24
H2H
Cruzeiro
Atletico-MG
0
0
D
21.04.24
H2H
Atletico-MG
Cruzeiro
3
0
L
07.04.24
H2H
Cruzeiro
Atletico-MG
1
3
L
30.03.24
H2H
Atletico-MG
Cruzeiro
2
2
D
03.02.24
H2H
Atletico-MG
Cruzeiro
0
2
W
22.10.23
H2H
Atletico-MG
Cruzeiro
0
1
W
Last matches: Cruzeiro
04.07.26
Fri
Cruzeiro
Defensor Sporting
2
0
W
31.05.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Fluminense
1
1
D
29.05.26
CON
Cruzeiro
Barcelona SC
4
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Chapecoense-sc
2
1
W
29.04.26
CON
Cruzeiro
Boca Juniors
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Gremio
2
0
W
15.04.26
CON
Cruzeiro
U. Catolica
1
2
L
12.04.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
RB Bragantino
2
1
W
01.04.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Vitoria
3
0
W
22.03.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Santos
0
0
D
15.03.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Vasco DA Gama
3
3
D
25.02.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Corinthians
1
1
D
06.02.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Coritiba
1
2
L
H2H at home: Cruzeiro
03.05.26
H2H
Cruzeiro
Atletico-MG
1
3
L
08.03.26
H2H
Cruzeiro
Atletico-MG
1
0
W
11.09.25
H2H
Cruzeiro
Atletico-MG
2
0
W
18.05.25
H2H
Cruzeiro
Atletico-MG
0
0
D
09.02.25
H2H
Cruzeiro
Atletico-MG
0
2
L
11.08.24
H2H
Cruzeiro
Atletico-MG
0
0
D
07.04.24
H2H
Cruzeiro
Atletico-MG
1
3
L
Last matches: Atletico-MG
31.05.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Vasco DA Gama
1
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Corinthians
0
1
L
19.04.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Coritiba
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Santos
0
1
L
02.04.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Chapecoense-sc
4
0
W
21.03.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Fluminense
0
1
L
14.03.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Vitoria
0
2
L
26.02.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Gremio
1
2
L
04.02.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
RB Bragantino
0
1
L
H2H away: Atletico-MG
03.05.26
H2H
Cruzeiro
Atletico-MG
1
3
W
08.03.26
H2H
Cruzeiro
Atletico-MG
1
0
L
11.09.25
H2H
Cruzeiro
Atletico-MG
2
0
L
18.05.25
H2H
Cruzeiro
Atletico-MG
0
0
D
09.02.25
H2H
Cruzeiro
Atletico-MG
0
2
W
11.08.24
H2H
Cruzeiro
Atletico-MG
0
0
D
07.04.24
H2H
Cruzeiro
Atletico-MG
1
3
W

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 12 5 1 30:13 17 41
?
2 17 10 4 3 31:16 15 34
?
3 18 9 4 5 28:23 5 31
?
4 18 9 3 6 24:18 6 30
?
5 18 9 2 7 25:19 6 29
?
6 17 7 5 5 25:23 2 26
?
7 18 7 5 6 24:24 0 26
?
8 18 7 4 7 23:20 3 25
?
9 18 7 3 8 22:23 -1 24
?
10 18 6 6 6 18:19 -1 24
?
11 18 6 6 6 24:28 -4 24
?
12 17 6 4 7 31:31 0 22
?
13 17 6 4 7 21:25 -4 22
?
14 18 5 6 7 21:22 -1 21
?
15 18 5 6 7 26:29 -3 21
?
16 18 5 6 7 20:23 -3 21
?
17 18 5 5 8 22:29 -7 20
?
18 18 4 6 8 21:29 -8 18
?
19 17 4 4 9 18:24 -6 16
?
20 17 1 6 10 17:33 -16 9
?
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B

Missing Players

Cruzeiro 3 missing
-
Cassio
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
Marquinhos
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
Kaua Prates
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
Atletico-MG 2 missing
-
Patrick Silva
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
Cuello
Questionable Injury
OUT