BRAZIL SERIE A
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Referee: W. do Nascimento

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 60.6%
Odds 1.67
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds 1.91
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds 2.13
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
60.6%
1.67
BTTS Yes
78.8%
1.91
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
2.13
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.15
HT / FT Home / Home
-
5.50
Correct Score 2-1
-
12.00
Probability Distribution
Coritiba Win 40.1%
Draw 20.4%
Cruzeiro Win 39.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Coritiba1.27
Cruzeiro1.33
Recent Form (Last 5)
Coritiba Coritiba
WWDLW
25 GF / 27 GA
Cruzeiro Cruzeiro
WLDWL
37 GF / 36 GA
Key Stats
1.25
Average Goals Scored
1.32
1.35
Average Goals Conceded
1.29
9
BTTS Yes
16
9
Over 2.5
15
3.4
Shots on Goal
4.62

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Coritiba Coritiba 20 matches
Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 28 matches
Coritiba Statistic Cruzeiro
7 Wins 11
6 Draws 8
7 Losses 9
25 Goals For 37
27 Goals Against 36
1.25 Avg Goals Scored 1.32
1.35 Avg Goals Conceded 1.29
9 BTTS Yes 16
14 Over 1.5 22
9 Over 2.5 15
6 Over 3.5 7
6 Clean Sheets 9
6 Failed To Score 5
3.4 Shots On Goal 4.62
10.25 Total Shots 13.69
3.35 Corners 5
39.6% Ball Possession 55.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Cruzeiro. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Coritiba Analysis

Coritiba sit 8 with 26 points after 19 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, while the 25:27 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Breno Lopes (8 goals), Joaquín Lavega (5 goals), Pedro Rocha (4 goals), with creative support from Josué (8 assists), Lucas Ronier (2 assists), Tinga (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, the record of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Cruzeiro Analysis

From their first 19 matches, Cruzeiro have collected 27 points and now occupy 7 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses, while the 26:29 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Kaio Jorge (5 goals), Christian (4 goals), Matheus Pereira (4 goals), with creative support from Christian (3 assists), Lucas Romero (3 assists), Fagner (3 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Coritiba won 6 times, Cruzeiro won 6 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:17 from Coritiba's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (79.6%)
Predicted formations: Coritiba 4-2-3-1 / Cruzeiro 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Coritiba 3, Cruzeiro 6
H2H summary: Coritiba wins 6, draws 3, Cruzeiro wins 6
Last matches: Coritiba
26.07.26
Ser
Coritiba
RB Bragantino
0
0
D
22.07.26
Ser
Coritiba
Palmeiras
1
3
L
30.05.26
Ser
Coritiba
Flamengo
0
3
L
25.05.26
Ser
Coritiba
Bahia
3
2
W
17.05.26
Ser
Coritiba
Santos
3
0
W
09.05.26
Ser
Coritiba
Internacional
2
2
D
02.05.26
Ser
Coritiba
Vitoria
1
4
L
26.04.26
Ser
Coritiba
Gremio
0
1
L
19.04.26
Ser
Coritiba
Atletico-MG
2
0
W
12.04.26
Ser
Coritiba
Botafogo
2
2
D
04.04.26
Ser
Coritiba
Fluminense
1
1
D
01.04.26
Ser
Coritiba
Vasco DA Gama
1
1
D
22.03.26
Ser
Coritiba
Atletico Paranaense
0
2
L
18.03.26
Ser
Coritiba
Mirassol
1
0
W
15.03.26
Ser
Coritiba
Remo
1
0
W
12.03.26
Ser
Coritiba
Corinthians
2
0
W
25.02.26
Ser
Coritiba
Sao Paulo
0
1
L
11.02.26
Ser
Coritiba
Chapecoense-sc
3
3
D
06.02.26
Ser
Coritiba
Cruzeiro
2
1
W
28.01.26
Ser
Coritiba
RB Bragantino
0
1
L
Last matches: Cruzeiro
26.07.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Botafogo
0
1
L
23.07.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Internacional
2
1
W
12.07.26
Fri
Cruzeiro
Gremio
1
3
L
04.07.26
Fri
Cruzeiro
Defensor Sporting
2
0
W
31.05.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Fluminense
1
1
D
29.05.26
CON
Cruzeiro
Barcelona SC
4
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Chapecoense-sc
2
1
W
20.05.26
CON
Cruzeiro
Boca Juniors
1
1
D
17.05.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Palmeiras
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Bahia
2
1
W
07.05.26
CON
Cruzeiro
U. Catolica
0
0
D
03.05.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Atletico-MG
1
3
L
29.04.26
CON
Cruzeiro
Boca Juniors
1
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Remo
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Gremio
2
0
W
15.04.26
CON
Cruzeiro
U. Catolica
1
2
L
12.04.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
RB Bragantino
2
1
W
08.04.26
CON
Cruzeiro
Barcelona SC
1
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Sao Paulo
1
4
L
01.04.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Vitoria
3
0
W
H2H: Coritiba vs Cruzeiro
06.02.26
H2H
Cruzeiro
Coritiba
1
2
W
11.11.23
H2H
Coritiba
Cruzeiro
1
0
W
16.07.23
H2H
Cruzeiro
Coritiba
0
0
D
09.10.21
H2H
Coritiba
Cruzeiro
0
3
L
06.07.21
H2H
Cruzeiro
Coritiba
0
0
D
18.10.17
H2H
Coritiba
Cruzeiro
1
0
W
25.06.17
H2H
Cruzeiro
Coritiba
2
0
L
14.08.16
H2H
Cruzeiro
Coritiba
2
2
D
15.05.16
H2H
Coritiba
Cruzeiro
1
0
W
27.09.15
H2H
Cruzeiro
Coritiba
2
0
L
28.06.15
H2H
Coritiba
Cruzeiro
1
0
W
24.09.14
H2H
Coritiba
Cruzeiro
1
2
L
17.05.14
H2H
Cruzeiro
Coritiba
3
2
L
20.10.13
H2H
Coritiba
Cruzeiro
2
1
W
03.08.13
H2H
Cruzeiro
Coritiba
1
0
L
Last matches: Coritiba
22.07.26
Ser
Coritiba
Palmeiras
1
3
L
25.05.26
Ser
Coritiba
Bahia
3
2
W
09.05.26
Ser
Coritiba
Internacional
2
2
D
19.04.26
Ser
Coritiba
Atletico-MG
2
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Coritiba
Fluminense
1
1
D
01.04.26
Ser
Coritiba
Vasco DA Gama
1
1
D
15.03.26
Ser
Coritiba
Remo
1
0
W
25.02.26
Ser
Coritiba
Sao Paulo
0
1
L
28.01.26
Ser
Coritiba
RB Bragantino
0
1
L
H2H at home: Coritiba
11.11.23
H2H
Coritiba
Cruzeiro
1
0
W
09.10.21
H2H
Coritiba
Cruzeiro
0
3
L
18.10.17
H2H
Coritiba
Cruzeiro
1
0
W
15.05.16
H2H
Coritiba
Cruzeiro
1
0
W
28.06.15
H2H
Coritiba
Cruzeiro
1
0
W
24.09.14
H2H
Coritiba
Cruzeiro
1
2
L
20.10.13
H2H
Coritiba
Cruzeiro
2
1
W
Last matches: Cruzeiro
23.07.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Internacional
2
1
W
12.07.26
Fri
Cruzeiro
Gremio
1
3
L
20.05.26
CON
Cruzeiro
Boca Juniors
1
1
D
17.05.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Palmeiras
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Bahia
2
1
W
07.05.26
CON
Cruzeiro
U. Catolica
0
0
D
25.04.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Remo
1
0
W
08.04.26
CON
Cruzeiro
Barcelona SC
1
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Sao Paulo
1
4
L
18.03.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Atletico Paranaense
1
2
L
12.03.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Flamengo
0
2
L
11.02.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Mirassol
2
2
D
30.01.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Botafogo
0
4
L
H2H away: Cruzeiro
11.11.23
H2H
Coritiba
Cruzeiro
1
0
L
09.10.21
H2H
Coritiba
Cruzeiro
0
3
W
18.10.17
H2H
Coritiba
Cruzeiro
1
0
L
15.05.16
H2H
Coritiba
Cruzeiro
1
0
L
28.06.15
H2H
Coritiba
Cruzeiro
1
0
L
24.09.14
H2H
Coritiba
Cruzeiro
1
2
W
20.10.13
H2H
Coritiba
Cruzeiro
2
1
L
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.23
Draw 3.34
Home 3.33
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.90
Draw 2.17
Home 4.03
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.35
Over 1.75 1.44
Over 2.0 1.58
Over 2.25 1.86
Over 2.5 2.13
Over 2.75 2.46
Over 3.5 3.83
Under 1.5 3.24
Under 1.75 2.86
Under 2.0 2.45
Under 2.25 1.99
Under 2.5 1.75
Under 2.75 1.57
Under 3.5 1.27
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.20
Draw 3.25
Home 3.40
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.88
Draw 2.10
Home 4.00
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.60
Draw 2.30
Home 3.40
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.07
Over 1.5 1.36
Over 2.5 2.10
Over 3.5 4.00
Over 4.5 8.00
Over 5.5 17.00
Over 6.5 34.00
Under 0.5 9.00
Under 1.5 3.20
Under 2.5 1.70
Under 3.5 1.25
Under 4.5 1.08
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.24
Draw 3.32
Home 3.40
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.81
Draw 2.02
Home 3.94
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.52
Draw 2.35
Home 3.54
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.02
Over 0.75 1.03
Over 1.0 1.04
Over 1.25 1.18
Over 1.5 1.31
Over 1.75 1.41
Over 2.0 1.53
Over 2.25 1.87
Over 2.5 2.12
Over 2.75 2.33
Over 3.0 2.93
Over 3.25 3.22
Over 3.5 3.54
Over 3.75 4.44
Over 4.0 6.25
Over 4.25 6.65
Over 4.5 7.10
Over 5.5 14.50
Over 6.5 34.00
Under 0.5 8.10
Under 0.75 7.49
Under 1.0 6.75
Under 1.25 3.96
Under 1.5 2.94
Under 1.75 2.63
Under 2.0 2.29
Under 2.25 1.97
Under 2.5 1.75
Under 2.75 1.51
Under 3.0 1.33
Under 3.25 1.26
Under 3.5 1.22
Under 3.75 1.14
Under 4.0 1.06
Under 4.25 1.05
Under 4.5 1.04
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.20
Draw 3.30
Home 3.25
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.88
Draw 2.10
Home 3.70
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.50
Draw 2.48
Home 3.45
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.05
Over 1.5 1.34
Over 1.75 1.44
Over 2.0 1.57
Over 2.25 1.84
Over 2.5 2.10
Over 2.75 2.45
Over 3.0 3.05
Over 3.25 3.45
Over 3.5 3.85
Over 4.5 8.00
Under 0.5 9.00
Under 1.5 3.15
Under 1.75 2.75
Under 2.0 2.38
Under 2.25 1.95
Under 2.5 1.71
Under 2.75 1.54
Under 3.0 1.37
Under 3.25 1.30
Under 3.5 1.24
Under 4.5 1.06

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 20 13 5 2 34:16 18 44
L W W W D
2 20 11 6 3 37:18 19 39
D D W W L
3 20 11 3 6 28:19 9 36
W W W W D
4 20 9 6 5 30:25 5 33
D D D L W
5 20 9 4 7 26:20 6 31
D D W W W
6 20 8 7 5 29:25 4 31
D D W W L
7 20 8 5 7 34:32 2 29
W D W L D
8 20 8 4 8 25:25 0 28
W D W L W
9 20 7 7 6 22:20 2 28
D W W W L
10 20 7 6 7 25:27 -2 27
D L L W W
11 20 7 6 7 26:30 -4 27
L W D W D
12 20 7 5 8 25:23 2 26
D L L D L
13 20 7 5 8 22:27 -5 26
L D W L W
14 20 6 5 9 23:27 -4 23
W D W L W
15 20 5 7 8 29:33 -4 22
D L W L L
16 21 5 7 9 23:27 -4 22
D L L L L
17 20 5 7 8 22:26 -4 22
D L L W D
18 20 5 6 9 23:31 -8 21
D L L L L
19 21 5 6 10 24:34 -10 21
L W L W L
20 20 1 7 12 19:41 -22 10
?
LIBC CL group stage
LIBC Play-offs
Copa Sudamericana Group Stage
Relegation

Missing Players

Coritiba 3 missing
-
S. Gomez
Missing Fixture Head Injury
OUT
-
Vini Paulista
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
-
Fabinho
Questionable Inactive
OUT
Cruzeiro 6 missing
-
Cassio
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
Fagner
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
-
Kaua Prates
Questionable Hamstring Injury
OUT
-
L. Sinisterra
Questionable Injury
OUT
-
Gabriel Pec
Missing Fixture Broken Leg
OUT
-
F. Peralta
Questionable Knee Injury
OUT