URUGUAY PRIMERA DIVISIóN
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Gran Parque Central

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 48%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 34.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
48%
-
BTTS Yes
54.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
34.5%
-
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Club Nacional Win 48%
Draw 14.1%
Juventud Win 37.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Club Nacional1.36
Juventud1.22
Recent Form (Last 5)
Club Nacional Club Nacional
WWDLW
44 GF / 42 GA
Juventud Juventud
WLDWL
37 GF / 43 GA
Key Stats
1.38
Average Goals Scored
1.16
1.31
Average Goals Conceded
1.34
17
BTTS Yes
19
19
Over 2.5
15
2.18
Shots on Goal
2.36

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Club Nacional Club Nacional 32 matches
Juventud Juventud 32 matches
Club Nacional Statistic Juventud
15 Wins 10
4 Draws 8
13 Losses 14
44 Goals For 37
42 Goals Against 43
1.38 Avg Goals Scored 1.16
1.31 Avg Goals Conceded 1.34
17 BTTS Yes 19
23 Over 1.5 21
19 Over 2.5 15
8 Over 3.5 7
10 Clean Sheets 7
7 Failed To Score 8
2.18 Shots On Goal 2.36
5.36 Total Shots 7.36
2.73 Corners 2.36
21.5% Ball Possession 27.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Club Nacional's more proactive style and Juventud's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Juventud. Club Nacional have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Club Nacional expected to line up in 4-3-2-1 and Juventud in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Juventud having the stronger overall control.

Club Nacional Analysis

Club Nacional sit 7 with 38 points after 25 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 12 wins, 2 draws, and 11 defeats with a 36:33 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have managed - wins, - draws, and - losses, a return that supports an unclear split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

Juventud Analysis

From their first 26 matches, Juventud have collected 30 points and now occupy 11 place in the table. Their overall return of 8 wins, 6 draws, and 12 losses with goals at 29:35 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, the record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points toward an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Club Nacional won 10 times, Juventud won 2 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 28:11 from Club Nacional's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.9%)
Predicted formations: Club Nacional 4-3-2-1 / Juventud 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Club Nacional wins 10, draws 3, Juventud wins 2

Standings

Primera: Clausura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 4 3 1 0 10:1 9 10
D W W W
2 3 3 0 0 9:2 7 9
W W W
3 4 2 2 0 5:2 3 8
W D W D
4 4 2 2 0 6:4 2 8
D W D W
5 4 2 1 1 4:2 2 7
W W L D
6 4 2 1 1 6:6 0 7
W L D W
7 4 2 1 1 4:6 -2 7
D L W W
8 4 2 0 2 3:4 -1 6
W W L L
9 4 1 2 1 4:4 0 5
L D W D
10 4 0 4 0 4:4 0 4
D D D D
11 3 1 1 1 2:2 0 4
L D W
12 4 1 0 3 1:4 -3 3
W L L L
13 4 1 0 3 2:6 -4 3
L L L W
14 4 0 2 2 0:2 -2 2
L D D L
15 4 0 1 3 2:9 -7 1
L D L L
16 4 0 0 4 3:7 -4 0
L L L L
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)