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19.10.2026 23:00
Gran Parque Central
Referee: Mathias De Armas

Club Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 53.9%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 58.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
53.9%
- ▥
BTTS No
50.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
58.1%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 10.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Club Nacional Win 53.9%
Draw 4.9%
Deportivo Maldonado Win 41.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Club Nacional1.22
Deportivo Maldonado1.43
Recent Form (Last 5)
Club Nacional Club Nacional
WWDLW
55 GF / 47 GA
Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado
WLDWL
50 GF / 28 GA
Key Stats
1.45
Average Goals Scored
1.56
1.24
Average Goals Conceded
0.88
20
BTTS Yes
15
21
Over 2.5
13
3.1
Shots on Goal
1

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Club Nacional Club Nacional 38 matches
Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado 32 matches
Club Nacional Statistic Deportivo Maldonado
19 Wins 17
6 Draws 8
13 Losses 7
55 Goals For 50
47 Goals Against 28
1.45 Avg Goals Scored 1.56
1.24 Avg Goals Conceded 0.88
20 BTTS Yes 15
28 Over 1.5 24
21 Over 2.5 13
10 Over 3.5 6
13 Clean Sheets 14
7 Failed To Score 6
3.1 Shots On Goal 1
7.8 Total Shots 2.4
4.1 Corners 1.2
33.2% Ball Possession 20.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Deportivo Maldonado. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Club Nacional expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Deportivo Maldonado in 4-3-1-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Deportivo Maldonado having the stronger overall control.

Club Nacional Analysis

Club Nacional come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 5 place with 52 points after 31 matches. They have recorded 16 wins, 4 draws, and 11 losses, with a 47:38 goal return and good form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, their record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points to an unclear split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Deportivo Maldonado Analysis

Deportivo Maldonado come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 59 points after 32 matches. With 17 wins, 8 draws, and 7 defeats plus a goal balance of 50:28, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by their main attacking players, and at the back they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, their record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points to an unclear split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Club Nacional won 2 times, Deportivo Maldonado won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:9 from Club Nacional's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 3.6 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.1%)
Predicted formations: Club Nacional 3-4-2-1 / Deportivo Maldonado 4-3-1-2
H2H summary: Club Nacional wins 2, draws 1, Deportivo Maldonado wins 2

Standings

Primera: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 19 7 6 51:26 25 63
D W D W W
2 32 17 8 7 50:28 22 59
D W W W L
3 32 17 6 9 53:37 16 57
W L D L W
4 33 15 11 7 39:27 12 56
W L L L D
5 32 17 4 11 48:38 10 55
W W W W D
6 32 13 11 8 43:31 12 50
D W W D L
7 33 14 8 11 41:42 -1 50
L L W W D
8 32 11 7 14 42:42 0 40
W W L L L
9 33 10 10 13 37:41 -4 40
L W D D W
10 32 10 8 14 32:43 -11 38
L L L L D
11 33 10 7 16 33:43 -10 37
W W D L L
12 33 10 7 16 27:48 -21 37
D W L D L
13 33 8 11 14 30:40 -10 35
L L L W L
14 33 8 10 15 30:38 -8 34
D L L L L
15 33 9 5 19 30:47 -17 32
W D L W W
16 32 5 14 13 26:41 -15 29
L W L D D
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