COLOMBIA PRIMERA A
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Estadio La Independencia

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 72.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
72.6%
-
BTTS Yes
58.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
78.9%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Chico Win 72.6%
Draw 5.3%
Fortaleza FC Win 22.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Chico0.97
Fortaleza FC1.46
Recent Form (Last 5)
Chico Chico
WWDLW
15 GF / 41 GA
Fortaleza FC Fortaleza FC
WLDWL
26 GF / 31 GA
Key Stats
0.71
Average Goals Scored
1.13
1.95
Average Goals Conceded
1.35
4
BTTS Yes
16
10
Over 2.5
10
3
Shots on Goal
3.91

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Chico Chico 21 matches
Fortaleza FC Fortaleza FC 23 matches
Chico Statistic Fortaleza FC
5 Wins 6
2 Draws 9
14 Losses 8
15 Goals For 26
41 Goals Against 31
0.71 Avg Goals Scored 1.13
1.95 Avg Goals Conceded 1.35
4 BTTS Yes 16
15 Over 1.5 19
10 Over 2.5 10
5 Over 3.5 4
4 Clean Sheets 5
13 Failed To Score 4
3 Shots On Goal 3.91
9.62 Total Shots 12.04
3.43 Corners 4.3
45.6% Ball Possession 54.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Fortaleza FC. Chico have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Chico expected to line up in 4-5-1 and Fortaleza FC in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Fortaleza FC having the stronger overall control.

Chico Analysis

Chico approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 18 with 17 points from 19 matches. The overall return of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 12 defeats with a 15:32 goal balance points toward poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, the split record of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Fortaleza FC Analysis

Fortaleza FC approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 22 points from 19 matches. The overall return of 5 wins, 7 draws, and 7 defeats with a 22:27 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Richardson Rivas (2 goals), Joan Cajares (1 goals), J. Solís (1 goals), with creative support from Yesid Díaz (1 assists), Santiago Vivas (1 assists), Andres Copete (1 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Chico won 2 times, Fortaleza FC won 6 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:14 from Chico's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 1.64 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.7%)
Predicted formations: Chico 4-5-1 / Fortaleza FC 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Chico wins 2, draws 6, Fortaleza FC wins 6
Last matches: Chico
08.08.26
Pri
Chico
Santa Fe
0
2
L
02.08.26
Pri
Chico
America de Cali
0
7
L
02.05.26
Pri
Chico
Llaneros
3
0
W
27.04.26
Pri
Chico
Internacional de Bogota
0
4
L
22.04.26
Pri
Chico
Independiente Medellin
0
2
L
17.04.26
Pri
Chico
Deportivo Cali
1
0
W
12.04.26
Pri
Chico
Bucaramanga
0
5
L
02.04.26
Pri
Chico
Deportivo Pereira
1
0
W
28.03.26
Pri
Chico
Cucuta
0
1
L
23.03.26
Pri
Chico
Deportes Tolima
1
1
D
18.03.26
Pri
Chico
Deportivo Pasto
0
2
L
14.03.26
Pri
Chico
Millonarios
2
1
W
28.02.26
Pri
Chico
Once Caldas
0
3
L
22.02.26
Pri
Chico
Águilas Doradas
0
1
L
16.02.26
Pri
Chico
Fortaleza FC
1
2
L
12.02.26
Pri
Chico
Jaguares
5
0
W
08.02.26
Pri
Chico
Junior
0
3
L
31.01.26
Pri
Chico
Santa Fe
0
1
L
28.01.26
Pri
Chico
Alianza Valledupar
1
1
D
25.01.26
Pri
Chico
America de Cali
0
1
L
Last matches: Fortaleza FC
08.08.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Cucuta
2
0
W
04.08.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Llaneros
1
3
L
01.08.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Deportivo Pereira
0
0
D
26.07.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Alianza Valledupar
1
1
D
03.05.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Bucaramanga
2
1
W
26.04.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Independiente Medellin
0
1
L
23.04.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
America de Cali
1
2
L
19.04.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Águilas Doradas
2
0
W
03.04.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Internacional de Bogota
1
1
D
31.03.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Millonarios
2
2
D
25.03.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Deportivo Pasto
1
2
L
19.03.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Deportes Tolima
0
2
L
16.03.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Junior
1
2
L
05.03.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Jaguares
2
1
W
01.03.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Deportivo Cali
1
1
D
21.02.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Once Caldas
2
4
L
16.02.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Chico
2
1
W
13.02.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Atletico Nacional
1
4
L
07.02.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Santa Fe
1
1
D
31.01.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Cucuta
1
1
D
H2H: Chico vs Fortaleza FC
16.02.26
H2H
Fortaleza FC
Chico
2
1
L
14.10.25
H2H
Fortaleza FC
Chico
1
0
L
21.04.25
H2H
Chico
Fortaleza FC
0
2
L
01.09.24
H2H
Chico
Fortaleza FC
2
2
D
25.06.24
H2H
Fortaleza FC
Chico
0
0
D
23.02.24
H2H
Fortaleza FC
Chico
1
1
D
29.10.22
H2H
Fortaleza FC
Chico
0
2
W
25.10.22
H2H
Chico
Fortaleza FC
0
0
D
24.09.22
H2H
Chico
Fortaleza FC
0
0
D
27.08.22
H2H
Fortaleza FC
Chico
1
0
L
27.03.22
H2H
Chico
Fortaleza FC
0
1
L
12.10.21
H2H
Fortaleza FC
Chico
0
0
D
16.11.19
H2H
Fortaleza FC
Chico
0
2
W
21.10.19
H2H
Chico
Fortaleza FC
1
1
D
03.08.19
H2H
Fortaleza FC
Chico
3
0
L
Last matches: Chico
02.05.26
Pri
Chico
Llaneros
3
0
W
17.04.26
Pri
Chico
Deportivo Cali
1
0
W
02.04.26
Pri
Chico
Deportivo Pereira
1
0
W
23.03.26
Pri
Chico
Deportes Tolima
1
1
D
14.03.26
Pri
Chico
Millonarios
2
1
W
22.02.26
Pri
Chico
Águilas Doradas
0
1
L
12.02.26
Pri
Chico
Jaguares
5
0
W
31.01.26
Pri
Chico
Santa Fe
0
1
L
25.01.26
Pri
Chico
America de Cali
0
1
L
13.11.25
Pri
Chico
Millonarios
1
2
L
06.11.25
Pri
Chico
America de Cali
0
2
L
18.10.25
Pri
Chico
Santa Fe
0
0
D
06.10.25
Pri
Chico
Atletico Nacional
1
1
D
22.09.25
Pri
Chico
Deportivo Pereira
1
1
D
30.08.25
Pri
Chico
Union Magdalena
1
0
W
25.08.25
Pri
Chico
Deportivo Cali
0
0
D
12.08.25
Pri
Chico
Internacional de Bogota
0
0
D
26.07.25
Pri
Chico
Deportivo Pasto
2
2
D
20.07.25
Pri
Chico
Independiente Medellin
2
0
W
18.05.25
Pri
Chico
Alianza Valledupar
2
1
W
H2H at home: Chico
21.04.25
H2H
Chico
Fortaleza FC
0
2
L
01.09.24
H2H
Chico
Fortaleza FC
2
2
D
25.10.22
H2H
Chico
Fortaleza FC
0
0
D
24.09.22
H2H
Chico
Fortaleza FC
0
0
D
27.03.22
H2H
Chico
Fortaleza FC
0
1
L
21.10.19
H2H
Chico
Fortaleza FC
1
1
D
Last matches: Fortaleza FC
04.08.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Llaneros
1
3
L
26.07.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Alianza Valledupar
1
1
D
26.04.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Independiente Medellin
0
1
L
31.03.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Millonarios
2
2
D
19.03.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Deportes Tolima
0
2
L
16.03.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Junior
1
2
L
01.03.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Deportivo Cali
1
1
D
21.02.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Once Caldas
2
4
L
13.02.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Atletico Nacional
1
4
L
31.01.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Cucuta
1
1
D
24.01.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Deportivo Pereira
0
0
D
08.12.25
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Deportes Tolima
0
1
L
26.11.25
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Bucaramanga
2
1
W
22.11.25
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Santa Fe
0
3
L
14.11.25
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Union Magdalena
0
2
L
29.10.25
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Internacional de Bogota
1
0
W
17.10.25
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Independiente Medellin
1
3
L
04.10.25
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Llaneros
0
0
D
21.09.25
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Millonarios
2
3
L
31.08.25
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Deportes Tolima
1
1
D
H2H away: Fortaleza FC
21.04.25
H2H
Chico
Fortaleza FC
0
2
W
01.09.24
H2H
Chico
Fortaleza FC
2
2
D
25.10.22
H2H
Chico
Fortaleza FC
0
0
D
24.09.22
H2H
Chico
Fortaleza FC
0
0
D
27.03.22
H2H
Chico
Fortaleza FC
0
1
W
21.10.19
H2H
Chico
Fortaleza FC
1
1
D

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
L W W L W
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
L L L W W
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
L L L L L
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
W W W W L
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
D L D W D
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
W L W W L
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
W D L L D
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
L W L L L
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
W L W D W
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
W W L D W
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
W W W L W
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
D W W W D
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
W D D W L
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
D W D W L
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
W L D D W
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
D L L L W
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
L L D D D
18
Chico Home
19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
L L W L L
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
L D L L D
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
D L L W L
Post season qualification