COLOMBIA PRIMERA A
26.08.2026 21:00
Estadio La Independencia
Referee: Carlos Ortega, Colombia
Chico
Match Timeline
Fortaleza FC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
40'
Yesid Díaz
Fortaleza FC
🟨
45+1'
Alejandro Maya
Chico
🔄
58'
R. D. Rivas Torres ↔ J. Salas
Fortaleza FC
🔄
59'
S. Navarro ↔ A. Batioja
Fortaleza FC
🔄
60'
A. Maya ↔ I. Camargo
Chico
🟨
67'
Juan Diaz
Chico
🟨
70'
Santiago Vivas
Fortaleza FC
🔄
71'
S. Salazar ↔ S. Viveros
Chico
🔄
75'
J. Herrera ↔ J. Blanco
Fortaleza FC
🔄
79'
E. Sarria ↔ S. Navarro
Chico
🔄
79'
S. Mera ↔ F. Cifuentes
Chico
🔄
85'
J. Solis ↔ T. Wilke
Fortaleza FC

Chico vs Fortaleza FC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 72.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
72.6%
-
BTTS Yes
58.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
78.9%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Chico Win 72.6%
Draw 5.3%
Fortaleza FC Win 22.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Chico0.96
Fortaleza FC1.44
Recent Form (Last 5)
Chico Chico
WWDLW
15 GF / 42 GA
Fortaleza FC Fortaleza FC
WLDWL
27 GF / 33 GA
Key Stats
0.68
Average Goals Scored
1.13
1.91
Average Goals Conceded
1.38
4
BTTS Yes
17
10
Over 2.5
11
3
Shots on Goal
3.88

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Chico Chico 22 matches
Fortaleza FC Fortaleza FC 24 matches
Chico Statistic Fortaleza FC
5 Wins 6
2 Draws 9
15 Losses 9
15 Goals For 27
42 Goals Against 33
0.68 Avg Goals Scored 1.13
1.91 Avg Goals Conceded 1.38
4 BTTS Yes 17
15 Over 1.5 20
10 Over 2.5 11
5 Over 3.5 4
4 Clean Sheets 5
14 Failed To Score 4
3 Shots On Goal 3.88
9.77 Total Shots 11.83
3.77 Corners 4.29
46.1% Ball Possession 53.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Fortaleza FC. Chico have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Chico expected to line up in 4-5-1 and Fortaleza FC in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Fortaleza FC having the stronger overall control.

Chico Analysis

Chico approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 18 with 17 points from 19 matches. The overall return of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 12 defeats with a 15:32 goal balance points toward poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, the split record of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Fortaleza FC Analysis

Fortaleza FC approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 22 points from 19 matches. The overall return of 5 wins, 7 draws, and 7 defeats with a 22:27 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Richardson Rivas (2 goals), Joan Cajares (1 goals), J. Solís (1 goals), with creative support from Yesid Díaz (1 assists), Santiago Vivas (1 assists), Andres Copete (1 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Chico won 2 times, Fortaleza FC won 6 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:14 from Chico's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 1.64 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.7%)
Predicted formations: Chico 4-5-1 / Fortaleza FC 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Chico wins 2, draws 6, Fortaleza FC wins 6

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
W W W W L
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
L D D L D
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
D L D L L
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
W D W D W
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
L L W D D
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
L W W D W
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
W D W D D
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
W D D D D
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
W D D L D
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
D D L D W
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
L W W L W
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
L D D D D
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
W D D W D
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
L L L L W
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
D D L D L
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
D D D W D
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
W L L L D
18
Chico Home
19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
W W D D L
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
D L W W D
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
L D L W D
Post season qualification