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25.10.2026 17:30
Estadio Municipal de Castalia

Castellón vs Sporting Gijon Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 47%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
47%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
62.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
83.6%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Castellón Win 47%
Draw 14.5%
Sporting Gijon Win 38.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Castellón1.49
Sporting Gijon1.19
Recent Form (Last 5)
Castellón Castellón
WWDLW
26 GF / 14 GA
Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon
WLDWL
21 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
1.63
Average Goals Scored
1.4
0.88
Average Goals Conceded
1.27
6
BTTS Yes
6
8
Over 2.5
7
5.1
Shots on Goal
3.9

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Castellón Castellón 16 matches
Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon 15 matches
Castellón Statistic Sporting Gijon
9 Wins 8
4 Draws 1
3 Losses 6
26 Goals For 21
14 Goals Against 19
1.63 Avg Goals Scored 1.4
0.88 Avg Goals Conceded 1.27
6 BTTS Yes 6
12 Over 1.5 9
8 Over 2.5 7
3 Over 3.5 5
8 Clean Sheets 5
4 Failed To Score 5
5.1 Shots On Goal 3.9
14.6 Total Shots 11
5.4 Corners 3.7
62.3% Ball Possession 49.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Sporting Gijon look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Sporting Gijon.

Castellón Analysis

Castellón approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 2 on 23 points after 10 outings. With 7 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeats plus a goal balance of 18:4, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Israel Suero (4 goals), Ousmane Camara (4 goals), Pablo Santiago (3 goals), with creative support from Israel Suero (2 assists), Pablo Santiago (2 assists), Ousmane Camara (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, the split of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Sporting Gijon Analysis

Sporting Gijon come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 4 place with 19 points after 10 matches. With 6 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats plus a goal balance of 11:9, they continue to show very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by Antonio Casas (3 goals), J. Otero (1 goals), Pablo García (1 goals), with creative support from Álex Corredera (2 assists), J. Otero (1 assists), Pablo García (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Castellón won 3 times, Sporting Gijon won 3 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:11 from Castellón's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 3.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.5%)
Predicted formations: Castellón 4-4-2 / Sporting Gijon 4-4-2
H2H summary: Castellón wins 3, draws 0, Sporting Gijon wins 3

Standings

Segunda
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 8 0 2 20:7 13 24
W W W W W
2 10 7 2 1 18:4 14 23
W L D W W
3 10 7 1 2 20:11 9 22
D L W W W
4 10 6 1 3 11:9 2 19
W W W L W
5 10 5 3 2 17:9 8 18
W D D W W
6 10 5 3 2 12:5 7 18
D W D L W
7 10 5 2 3 16:13 3 17
W W W L L
8 10 5 2 3 13:10 3 17
W L L W W
9 10 5 2 3 13:10 3 17
W W L W L
10 10 4 4 2 10:8 2 16
L W D D W
11 10 4 2 4 13:13 0 14
W W W L L
12 10 3 4 3 12:14 -2 13
D D L D L
13 10 3 3 4 15:14 1 12
L W D W D
14 10 3 3 4 15:16 -1 12
D W L D L
15 10 4 0 6 15:20 -5 12
W L W L W
16 10 3 2 5 13:19 -6 11
L L D L L
17 10 3 2 5 6:15 -9 11
L L L L W
18 10 3 1 6 13:17 -4 10
L W D W L
19 10 2 2 6 14:21 -7 8
L L L L L
20 10 1 4 5 11:13 -2 7
L L W D L
21 10 1 2 7 9:22 -13 5
L L D W D
22 10 0 1 9 6:22 -16 1
L L L L L
Promotion - LaLiga
Promotion - LaLiga2 (Promotion - Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Relegation