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BULGARIA › FIRST LEAGUE
10.10.2026 12:00
Hristo Botev Stadium
Referee: Stoyanov·Georgi
Botev Vratsa
Match Timeline
Spartak Varna
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
43'
David Valverde
Spartak Varna
🔄
46'
A. Ivanov ↔ B. Ivanov
Spartak Varna
⚽
57'
B. Hanne · Assist: Jota Lopes
Spartak Varna
🔄
60'
M. Smolenski ↔ F. Gigov
Botev Vratsa
🟨
61'
Angel Granchov
Spartak Varna
🔄
62'
Jota Lopes ↔ E. Silva
Spartak Varna
🟨
66'
Martin Detelinov Petkov
Botev Vratsa
🔄
74'
J. Gallegos ↔ S. Mechev
Botev Vratsa
🔄
74'
V. Naydenov ↔ D. Genov
Botev Vratsa
🔄
74'
D. Valverde ↔ D. Lozev
Spartak Varna
🔄
74'
O. M. Chidera ↔ T. Chunchukov
Spartak Varna
🔄
84'
R. Sousa ↔ V. Oliveira
Spartak Varna
🔄
86'
A. Buchkov ↔ L. Boyanov
Botev Vratsa
🟨
90+4'
Ivan Goranov
Botev Vratsa

Botev Vratsa vs Spartak Varna Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 52.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
52.6%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
82%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Botev Vratsa Win 52.6%
Draw 15%
Spartak Varna Win 32.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Botev Vratsa1.14
Spartak Varna1.41
Recent Form (Last 5)
Botev Vratsa Botev Vratsa
L D D W L
6 GF / 8 GA
Spartak Varna Spartak Varna
L D D D L
2 GF / 9 GA
Key Stats
1.05
Average Goals Scored
1.33
1.53
Average Goals Conceded
1.28
12
BTTS Yes
8
10
Over 2.5
7
1.4
Shots on Goal
1.4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Botev Vratsa Botev Vratsa 19 matches
Spartak Varna Spartak Varna 18 matches
Botev Vratsa Statistic Spartak Varna
4 Wins 6
9 Draws 6
6 Losses 6
20 Goals For 24
29 Goals Against 23
1.05 Avg Goals Scored 1.33
1.53 Avg Goals Conceded 1.28
12 BTTS Yes 8
15 Over 1.5 10
10 Over 2.5 7
5 Over 3.5 5
4 Clean Sheets 5
5 Failed To Score 7
1.4 Shots On Goal 1.4
4.5 Total Shots 3.5
2.4 Corners 0.8
24.9% Ball Possession 17%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Spartak Varna. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Botev Vratsa Analysis

From their first 10 matches, Botev Vratsa have collected 9 points and now occupy 9 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 2 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, while the 9:19 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Spartak Varna Analysis

Spartak Varna sit 8 with 10 points after 10 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 2 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, while the 10:15 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Botev Vratsa won 4 times, Spartak Varna won 2 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:7 from Botev Vratsa's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.11 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85%)
Predicted formations: Botev Vratsa 4-2-3-1 / Spartak Varna 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Botev Vratsa wins 4, draws 3, Spartak Varna wins 2

Standings

A PFG
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 9 1 0 23:4 19 28
W D W W W
2 11 8 3 0 27:9 18 27
W D W W D
3 10 8 2 0 21:7 14 26
W W W D D
4 11 7 1 3 21:13 8 22
L W W L W
5 11 6 1 4 17:14 3 19
W W W W L
6 11 5 2 4 15:17 -2 17
L D L L W
7 11 3 4 4 11:15 -4 13
W L D D D
8 11 2 5 4 9:9 0 11
L L D W L
9 11 2 3 6 9:20 -11 9
L D D W L
10 11 2 2 7 13:21 -8 8
W D L L D
11 11 2 2 7 6:14 -8 8
D D L W L
12 11 1 5 5 12:19 -7 8
D W L D L
13 11 2 2 7 10:21 -11 8
L L L L D
14 11 1 3 7 11:22 -11 6
L D D L L
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