FRANCE LIGUE 2
--.--.---- --:--
Stade Armand Cesari
Referee: R. Buquet
Bastia
Match Timeline
Le Mans
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
3'
H. Voyer
Le Mans
16'
E. Colas
Le Mans
🔄
23'
F. Tomi ↔ J. Sebas
Bastia
🟨
26'
D. Guidi
Bastia
🟨
40'
Z. Ariss
Bastia
🟨
40'
A. Lauray
Le Mans
🔄
42'
E. Colas ↔ D. Gueye
Le Mans
🟨
45+4'
T. Ducrocq
Bastia
🔄
46'
J. Guevara ↔ G. Akueson
Bastia
🔄
60'
T. Ducrocq ↔ M. Merghem
Bastia
🔄
67'
E. Quarshie ↔ A. Bourabaa
Le Mans
🔄
75'
D. Guidi ↔ A. Roncaglia
Bastia
🔄
75'
R. Beliandjou ↔ C. Vincent
Bastia
🔄
83'
A. Rabillard ↔ W. Harhouz
Le Mans
🔄
83'
A. Lauray ↔ M. Robin
Le Mans
🔄
84'
L. Calodat ↔ A. Ribelin
Le Mans
🟨
89'
C. Vincent
Bastia
90'
M. Robin · Assist: D. Gueye
Le Mans

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 69.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 45%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
78.8%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
69.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
45%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Bastia Win 21.2%
Draw 0%
Le Mans Win 78.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Bastia0.9
Le Mans1.27
Recent Form (Last 5)
Bastia Bastia
WWDLW
30 GF / 39 GA
Le Mans Le Mans
WLDWL
53 GF / 38 GA
Key Stats
0.83
Average Goals Scored
1.39
1.08
Average Goals Conceded
1
11
BTTS Yes
20
7
Over 2.5
15
3.74
Shots on Goal
4.16

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Bastia Bastia 36 matches
Le Mans Le Mans 38 matches
Bastia Statistic Le Mans
7 Wins 16
14 Draws 17
15 Losses 5
30 Goals For 53
39 Goals Against 38
0.83 Avg Goals Scored 1.39
1.08 Avg Goals Conceded 1
11 BTTS Yes 20
20 Over 1.5 24
7 Over 2.5 15
7 Over 3.5 9
14 Clean Sheets 15
18 Failed To Score 8
3.74 Shots On Goal 4.16
11.53 Total Shots 10.86
4.38 Corners 5.3
50.6% Ball Possession 48.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Le Mans's more proactive style and Bastia's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Le Mans. Le Mans carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 59 points while Bastia sit 17 on 28, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Bastia expected to line up in 5-3-2 and Le Mans in 3-1-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Le Mans having the stronger overall control.

Bastia Analysis

Bastia sit 17 with 28 points after 33 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 5 wins, 13 draws, and 15 losses, together with goals at 23:37, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Felix Tomi (4 goals), J. Sebas (4 goals), Joachim Eickmayer (3 goals), with creative support from Felix Tomi (2 assists), A. Boutrah (2 assists), Alexandre Bi Zaouai (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Le Mans Analysis

Placed 2 with 59 points from 33 outings, Le Mans continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 15 wins, 14 draws, and 4 losses, while the 48:31 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on D. Gueye (10 goals), A. Rabillard (9 goals), E. Colas (5 goals), with creative support from A. Rabillard (5 assists), Lucas Calodat (4 assists), D. Gueye (3 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 6 wins, 8 draws, and 2 losses fits a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Bastia won 4 times, Le Mans won 3 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:8 from Bastia's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.14 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Bastia 5-3-2 / Le Mans 3-1-4-2
H2H summary: Bastia wins 4, draws 0, Le Mans wins 3
Stats
Bastia Bastia
Le Mans Le Mans
Shots on Goal
2
Shots on Goal
5
Shots off Goal
3
Shots off Goal
2
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
1
2 Corner Kicks 3
13 Fouls 14
1 Offsides 4
52% Ball Possession 48%
8 Total Shots 7
2 Shots on Goal 5
3 Shots off Goal 2
3 Blocked Shots 1
5 Shots insidebox 6
3 Shots outsidebox 1
2 Goalkeeper Saves 2
360 Total passes 324
275 Passes accurate 220
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 4 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Bastia
Formation
Le Mans
L. Olmeta
L. Olmeta
T. Meynadier
T. Meynadier
D. Guidi
D. Guidi
J. Guevara
J. Guevara
Z. Ariss
Z. Ariss
J. Janneh
J. Janneh
T. Ducrocq
T. Ducrocq
F. Tomi
F. Tomi
J. Eickmayer
J. Eickmayer
A. Zaouai
A. Zaouai
R. Beliandjou
R. Beliandjou
E. Hatfout
E. Hatfout
N. Boisse
N. Boisse
S. Yohou
S. Yohou
H. Voyer
H. Voyer
A. Lauray
A. Lauray
L. Buades
L. Buades
E. Quarshie
E. Quarshie
L. Bretelle
L. Bretelle
L. Calodat
L. Calodat
A. Rabillard
A. Rabillard
E. Colas
E. Colas
Bastia 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
L. Olmeta
G
24
T. Meynadier
D
6
D. Guidi
↓ 75' 🟨 26'
D
3
J. Guevara
↓ 46'
D
5
Z. Ariss
🟨 40'
D
66
J. Janneh
M
13
T. Ducrocq
↓ 60' 🟨 45+4'
M
9
F. Tomi
↓ 23'
M
17
J. Eickmayer
M
18
A. Zaouai
M
33
R. Beliandjou
↓ 75'
F
Substitutes
16
S. Contena
G
28
G. Akueson
↑ 46'
D
4
A. Roncaglia
↑ 75'
D
7
C. Vincent
↑ 75' 🟨 89'
M
15
F. Bohnert
D
29
M. Merghem
↑ 60'
F
14
J. Sebas
↑ 23'
F
Le Mans 3-1-4-2
Starting XI
1
E. Hatfout
G
31
N. Boisse
D
17
S. Yohou
D
5
H. Voyer
🟨 3'
D
8
A. Lauray
↓ 83' 🟨 40'
M
18
L. Buades
M
6
E. Quarshie
↓ 67'
M
29
L. Bretelle
22
L. Calodat
↓ 84'
M
9
A. Rabillard
↓ 83'
F
28
E. Colas
⚽ 16' ↓ 42'
F
Substitutes
55
A. Delbecque
G
12
A. Ribelin
↑ 84'
D
25
D. Gueye
🎯 90' ↑ 42'
F
20
W. Harhouz
↑ 83'
F
3
I. Cossier
D
11
A. Bourabaa
↑ 67'
F
24
M. Robin
⚽ 90' ↑ 83'
M
Last matches: Bastia
10.07.26
Fri
Bastia
Rodez
3
5
L
02.05.26
Lig
Bastia
Guingamp
1
0
W
24.04.26
Lig
Bastia
Clermont Foot
1
1
D
18.04.26
Lig
Bastia
Saint Etienne
2
0
W
11.04.26
Lig
Bastia
RED Star FC 93
3
4
L
03.04.26
Lig
Bastia
Amiens
1
1
D
20.03.26
Lig
Bastia
Rodez
1
1
D
13.03.26
Lig
Bastia
Boulogne
0
1
L
06.03.26
Lig
Bastia
PAU
2
2
D
27.02.26
Lig
Bastia
Annecy
0
2
L
20.02.26
Lig
Bastia
Dunkerque
1
1
D
16.02.26
Lig
Bastia
Estac Troyes
0
0
D
06.02.26
Lig
Bastia
Reims
0
0
D
30.01.26
Lig
Bastia
Nancy
0
0
D
23.01.26
Lig
Bastia
Montpellier
0
2
L
16.01.26
Lig
Bastia
Laval
2
0
W
10.01.26
Cou
Bastia
Estac Troyes
0
2
L
03.01.26
Lig
Bastia
Grenoble
1
0
W
20.12.25
Cou
Bastia
Pontivy GSI
1
0
W
13.12.25
Lig
Bastia
Saint Etienne
2
2
D
Last matches: Le Mans
22.07.26
Fri
Le Mans
Versailles
3
1
W
18.07.26
Fri
Le Mans
La Roche VF
2
3
L
02.05.26
Lig
Le Mans
Reims
1
1
D
25.04.26
Lig
Le Mans
Grenoble
1
1
D
17.04.26
Lig
Le Mans
Clermont Foot
1
0
W
11.04.26
Lig
Le Mans
Boulogne
0
0
D
06.04.26
Lig
Le Mans
PAU
4
0
W
20.03.26
Lig
Le Mans
Amiens
4
3
W
13.03.26
Lig
Le Mans
Nancy
4
2
W
07.03.26
Lig
Le Mans
Annecy
3
0
W
28.02.26
Lig
Le Mans
RED Star FC 93
0
0
D
23.02.26
Lig
Le Mans
Guingamp
1
1
D
14.02.26
Lig
Le Mans
Montpellier
2
4
L
07.02.26
Lig
Le Mans
Laval
1
1
D
03.02.26
Cou
Le Mans
Reims
0
3
L
31.01.26
Lig
Le Mans
Estac Troyes
2
0
W
26.01.26
Lig
Le Mans
Dunkerque
1
0
W
16.01.26
Lig
Le Mans
Rodez
1
1
D
11.01.26
Cou
Le Mans
Nancy
0
0
D
03.01.26
Lig
Le Mans
Saint Etienne
0
0
D
H2H: Bastia vs Le Mans
09.05.26
H2H
Bastia
Le Mans
0
2
L
22.08.25
H2H
Le Mans
Bastia
1
0
L
08.02.21
H2H
Bastia
Le Mans
1
0
W
07.09.20
H2H
Le Mans
Bastia
1
3
W
17.11.18
H2H
SC Bastia
Le Mans
2
1
L
04.05.12
H2H
Le Mans
Bastia
3
0
L
12.08.11
H2H
Bastia
Le Mans
1
0
W
Last matches: Bastia
18.04.26
Lig
Bastia
Saint Etienne
2
0
W
03.04.26
Lig
Bastia
Amiens
1
1
D
13.03.26
Lig
Bastia
Boulogne
0
1
L
27.02.26
Lig
Bastia
Annecy
0
2
L
16.02.26
Lig
Bastia
Estac Troyes
0
0
D
30.01.26
Lig
Bastia
Nancy
0
0
D
23.01.26
Lig
Bastia
Montpellier
0
2
L
10.01.26
Cou
Bastia
Estac Troyes
0
2
L
03.01.26
Lig
Bastia
Grenoble
1
0
W
25.11.25
Lig
Bastia
Laval
0
2
L
07.11.25
Lig
Bastia
Reims
1
3
L
31.10.25
Lig
Bastia
Clermont Foot
1
0
W
03.10.25
Lig
Bastia
Dunkerque
0
0
D
23.09.25
Lig
Bastia
Rodez
2
3
L
30.08.25
Lig
Bastia
Guingamp
1
3
L
15.08.25
Lig
Bastia
PAU
1
1
D
H2H at home: Bastia
09.05.26
H2H
Bastia
Le Mans
0
2
L
08.02.21
H2H
Bastia
Le Mans
1
0
W
12.08.11
H2H
Bastia
Le Mans
1
0
W
Last matches: Le Mans
25.04.26
Lig
Le Mans
Grenoble
1
1
D
11.04.26
Lig
Le Mans
Boulogne
0
0
D
20.03.26
Lig
Le Mans
Amiens
4
3
W
13.03.26
Lig
Le Mans
Nancy
4
2
W
28.02.26
Lig
Le Mans
RED Star FC 93
0
0
D
14.02.26
Lig
Le Mans
Montpellier
2
4
L
03.02.26
Cou
Le Mans
Reims
0
3
L
31.01.26
Lig
Le Mans
Estac Troyes
2
0
W
16.01.26
Lig
Le Mans
Rodez
1
1
D
19.12.25
Cou
Le Mans
Périgny
2
1
W
12.12.25
Lig
Le Mans
Annecy
2
1
W
29.11.25
Cou
Le Mans
Villeneuve-la-Garenne
2
2
D
21.11.25
Lig
Le Mans
PAU
2
1
W
15.11.25
Cou
Le Mans
Ivry
1
1
D
28.10.25
Lig
Le Mans
Laval
1
1
D
18.10.25
Lig
Le Mans
Saint Etienne
3
2
W
26.09.25
Lig
Le Mans
Clermont Foot
1
1
D
19.09.25
Lig
Le Mans
Dunkerque
2
2
D
30.08.25
Lig
Le Mans
Reims
0
1
L
09.08.25
Lig
Le Mans
Guingamp
3
3
D
H2H away: Le Mans
09.05.26
H2H
Bastia
Le Mans
0
2
W
08.02.21
H2H
Bastia
Le Mans
1
0
L
17.11.18
H2H
SC Bastia
Le Mans
2
1
L
12.08.11
H2H
Bastia
Le Mans
1
0
L

Standings

Ligue 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 20 7 7 60:33 27 67
L W W W L
2 34 16 14 4 50:31 19 62
W D D W D
3 34 18 6 10 59:38 21 60
W L L L W
4 34 16 10 8 45:37 8 58
D W W L W
5 34 15 13 6 45:39 6 58
W W D W W
6 34 14 14 6 53:35 18 56
W D D W D
7 34 15 7 12 49:39 10 52
L W W W D
8 34 14 9 11 41:31 10 51
D L W W D
9 34 12 9 13 48:62 -14 45
L L L W W
10 34 11 10 13 53:45 8 43
L L W L L
11 34 10 10 14 42:49 -7 40
L L L L D
12 34 8 15 11 33:39 -6 39
W W D L D
13 34 9 10 15 38:44 -6 37
W W D L D
14 34 9 10 15 35:52 -17 37
W W D L D
15 34 9 9 16 34:49 -15 36
L L L L D
16 34 6 14 14 30:48 -18 32
W D W L D
17 34 5 13 16 23:39 -16 28
L W D W L
18 34 6 6 22 37:65 -28 24
L L L L L
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation