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RUSSIA › PREMIER LEAGUE
16.09.2026 17:45
Rostec Arena
Referee: Artem Chistyakov, Russia
Baltika
Match Timeline
Zenit
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
9'
M. Glushenkov · Assist: A. Karpukas
Zenit
⚽
16'
A. Sobolev · Assist: Pedrinho
Zenit
⚽
22'
B. Gil · Assist: K. Shiltsov
Baltika
🔄
46'
M. Petrov ↔ V. Pospelov
Baltika
🔄
46'
A. Mourid ↔ I. Belikov
Baltika
⚽
49'
Luiz Henrique · Assist: A. Sobolev
Zenit
🟨
53'
Ivan Belikov
Baltika
🔄
63'
M. Beveev ↔ M. Ryadno
Baltika
🔄
63'
B. Gil ↔ E. Golenkov
Baltika
🔄
67'
A. Karpukas ↔ N. Alip
Zenit
🔄
67'
M. Glushenkov ↔ R. Vega
Zenit
🟨
70'
Sergey Varatynov
Baltika
🔄
74'
Gustavo Mantuan ↔ V. Karavaev
Zenit
🔄
76'
K. Shiltsov ↔ I. Petrov
Baltika
🟨
78'
Román Vega
Zenit
⚽
81'
I. Petrov
Baltika
🔄
86'
Pedrinho ↔ D. Kondakov
Zenit
🔄
86'
A. Sobolev ↔ Felipe Augusto
Zenit

Baltika vs Zenit Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 58.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
58.4%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
62.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Baltika Win 32.6%
Draw 8.9%
Zenit Win 58.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Baltika1.47
Zenit1.66
Recent Form (Last 5)
Baltika Baltika
WWDLW
38 GF / 16 GA
Zenit Zenit
WLDWL
49 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
1.9
Average Goals Scored
2.23
0.8
Average Goals Conceded
0.82
9
BTTS Yes
10
11
Over 2.5
14
4.63
Shots on Goal
5.38

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Baltika Baltika 20 matches
Zenit Zenit 22 matches
Baltika Statistic Zenit
11 Wins 15
5 Draws 3
4 Losses 4
38 Goals For 49
16 Goals Against 18
1.9 Avg Goals Scored 2.23
0.8 Avg Goals Conceded 0.82
9 BTTS Yes 10
15 Over 1.5 19
11 Over 2.5 14
5 Over 3.5 7
10 Clean Sheets 10
2 Failed To Score 2
4.63 Shots On Goal 5.38
13.63 Total Shots 16
4.63 Corners 5.5
39.6% Ball Possession 60.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Zenit. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Zenit arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Baltika expected to line up in 5-4-1 and Zenit in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Zenit having the stronger overall control.

Baltika Analysis

Baltika are currently 7 in the standings with 10 points from 7 matches. The record of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 10:7 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through C. Offor (2 goals), B. Gil (2 goals), S. Varatynov (1 goals), with creative support from N. Gassama (2 assists), S. Varatynov (1 assists), N. Titkov (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Zenit Analysis

Zenit sit 5 with 12 points after 7 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, together with goals at 14:6, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through M. Glushenkov (5 goals), A. Sobolev (3 goals), A. Mostovoy (1 goals), with creative support from M. Glushenkov (1 assists), Pedro Henrique (1 assists), Jhon Jhon (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 3 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Baltika won 1 times, Zenit won 7 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:10 from Baltika's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 1.44 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.1%)
Predicted formations: Baltika 5-4-1 / Zenit 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Baltika 2, Zenit 1
H2H summary: Baltika wins 1, draws 1, Zenit wins 7

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 1 2 15:8 7 22
W W W W W
2 10 6 4 0 18:9 9 22
W W D W D
3
Zenit Away
10 7 0 3 22:11 11 21
W W W L W
4 10 6 3 1 16:10 6 21
L D D D W
5 10 6 2 2 17:8 9 20
D W W L D
6 10 2 6 2 12:12 0 12
L D D D W
7 10 2 6 2 11:10 1 12
W D L D D
8 10 3 3 4 14:12 2 12
D L D L W
9 10 4 0 6 15:20 -5 12
L L L W L
10 10 2 6 2 14:15 -1 12
D D W D D
11 10 2 5 3 13:13 0 11
D L W D D
12 10 3 2 5 11:17 -6 11
W L L W L
13 10 2 4 4 13:11 2 10
W D L W L
14 10 1 5 4 11:19 -8 8
L W D D D
15 10 1 2 7 10:25 -15 5
L D L L L
16 10 0 3 7 6:18 -12 3
L L D L L
Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - FNL