BRAZIL SERIE A
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Arena Fonte Nova

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 83.1%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 55%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 58.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
83.1%
-
BTTS No
55%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
58.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Bahia Win 83.1%
Draw 4.9%
Vasco DA Gama Win 12%
Expected Goals (xG)
Bahia1.46
Vasco DA Gama1.17
Recent Form (Last 5)
Bahia Bahia
WWDLW
35 GF / 30 GA
Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama
WLDWL
23 GF / 31 GA
Key Stats
1.4
Average Goals Scored
1.15
1.2
Average Goals Conceded
1.55
16
BTTS Yes
14
12
Over 2.5
11
4.43
Shots on Goal
5.3

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Bahia Bahia 25 matches
Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama 20 matches
Bahia Statistic Vasco DA Gama
10 Wins 5
8 Draws 6
7 Losses 9
35 Goals For 23
30 Goals Against 31
1.4 Avg Goals Scored 1.15
1.2 Avg Goals Conceded 1.55
16 BTTS Yes 14
21 Over 1.5 15
12 Over 2.5 11
5 Over 3.5 4
6 Clean Sheets 1
4 Failed To Score 5
4.43 Shots On Goal 5.3
12.96 Total Shots 17.6
5.52 Corners 5.35
53.3% Ball Possession 54.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Bahia's more proactive style and Vasco DA Gama's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Bahia expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Vasco DA Gama in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Vasco DA Gama having the stronger overall control. Bahia arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 5 with 32 points compared to Vasco DA Gama in 18 on 21, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Vasco DA Gama arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Vasco DA Gama.

Bahia Analysis

Bahia come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 5 with 32 points from 21 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 8 draws, and 5 losses, while the 29:25 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Going forward they rely heavily on Luciano Juba (6 goals), Everaldo (4 goals), David Duarte (3 goals), with creative support from Everton Ribeiro (4 assists), Luciano Juba (1 assists), David Duarte (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Vasco DA Gama Analysis

With 21 points from 20 games and a place of 18, Vasco DA Gama still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 6 draws, and 9 defeats, and the 23:31 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on Andrés Gómez (4 goals), Thiago Mendes (3 goals), Puma Rodríguez (2 goals), with creative support from Puma Rodríguez (3 assists), Cuiabano (2 assists), David (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Bahia won 7 times, Vasco DA Gama won 5 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:15 from Bahia's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.1%)
Predicted formations: Bahia 4-3-3 / Vasco DA Gama 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Bahia wins 7, draws 3, Vasco DA Gama wins 5
Last matches: Bahia
30.07.26
Ser
Bahia
Fluminense
0
0
D
26.07.26
Ser
Bahia
Corinthians
1
1
D
21.07.26
Ser
Bahia
Atletico-MG
1
1
D
17.07.26
Ser
Bahia
Chapecoense-sc
2
0
W
12.07.26
Fri
Bahia
Fluminense
0
2
L
04.07.26
Fri
Bahia
Atletico Torque
4
1
W
30.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Botafogo
2
1
W
25.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Coritiba
2
3
L
17.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Gremio
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Cruzeiro
1
2
L
03.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Sao Paulo
2
2
D
25.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Santos
2
2
D
19.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Flamengo
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Mirassol
2
1
W
05.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Palmeiras
1
2
L
01.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Atletico Paranaense
3
0
W
22.03.26
Ser
Bahia
Remo
1
4
L
18.03.26
Ser
Bahia
RB Bragantino
2
0
W
15.03.26
Ser
Bahia
Internacional
1
0
W
11.03.26
Ser
Bahia
Vitoria
1
1
D
Last matches: Vasco DA Gama
25.07.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Mirassol
1
1
D
16.07.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Vitoria
0
1
L
31.05.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Atletico-MG
0
1
L
24.05.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
RB Bragantino
0
3
L
16.05.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Internacional
1
4
L
10.05.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Atletico Paranaense
1
0
W
03.05.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Flamengo
2
2
D
26.04.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Corinthians
0
1
L
18.04.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Sao Paulo
2
1
W
11.04.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Remo
1
1
D
05.04.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Botafogo
1
2
L
01.04.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Coritiba
1
1
D
22.03.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Gremio
2
1
W
19.03.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Fluminense
3
2
W
15.03.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Cruzeiro
3
3
D
12.03.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Palmeiras
2
1
W
26.02.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Santos
1
2
L
12.02.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Bahia
0
1
L
05.02.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Chapecoense-sc
1
1
D
29.01.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Mirassol
1
2
L
H2H: Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama
12.02.26
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Bahia
0
1
W
23.11.25
H2H
Bahia
Vasco DA Gama
1
0
W
24.09.25
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Bahia
3
1
L
29.10.24
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Bahia
3
2
L
27.06.24
H2H
Bahia
Vasco DA Gama
2
1
W
03.09.23
H2H
Bahia
Vasco DA Gama
1
1
D
01.05.23
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Bahia
0
1
W
28.08.22
H2H
Bahia
Vasco DA Gama
2
1
W
15.05.22
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Bahia
1
0
L
31.01.21
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Bahia
0
0
D
07.10.20
H2H
Bahia
Vasco DA Gama
3
0
W
05.12.19
H2H
Bahia
Vasco DA Gama
1
1
D
07.09.19
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Bahia
0
2
W
24.09.18
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Bahia
2
1
L
16.07.18
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Bahia
2
0
L
Last matches: Bahia
26.07.26
Ser
Bahia
Corinthians
1
1
D
17.07.26
Ser
Bahia
Chapecoense-sc
2
0
W
04.07.26
Fri
Bahia
Atletico Torque
4
1
W
30.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Botafogo
2
1
W
17.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Gremio
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Cruzeiro
1
2
L
25.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Santos
2
2
D
05.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Palmeiras
1
2
L
01.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Atletico Paranaense
3
0
W
18.03.26
Ser
Bahia
RB Bragantino
2
0
W
11.03.26
Ser
Bahia
Vitoria
1
1
D
25.02.26
CON
Bahia
O'Higgins
2
1
W
05.02.26
Ser
Bahia
Fluminense
1
1
D
H2H at home: Bahia
23.11.25
H2H
Bahia
Vasco DA Gama
1
0
W
27.06.24
H2H
Bahia
Vasco DA Gama
2
1
W
03.09.23
H2H
Bahia
Vasco DA Gama
1
1
D
28.08.22
H2H
Bahia
Vasco DA Gama
2
1
W
07.10.20
H2H
Bahia
Vasco DA Gama
3
0
W
05.12.19
H2H
Bahia
Vasco DA Gama
1
1
D
Last matches: Vasco DA Gama
16.07.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Vitoria
0
1
L
16.05.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Internacional
1
4
L
03.05.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Flamengo
2
2
D
26.04.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Corinthians
0
1
L
11.04.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Remo
1
1
D
01.04.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Coritiba
1
1
D
15.03.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Cruzeiro
3
3
D
26.02.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Santos
1
2
L
29.01.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Mirassol
1
2
L
H2H away: Vasco DA Gama
23.11.25
H2H
Bahia
Vasco DA Gama
1
0
L
27.06.24
H2H
Bahia
Vasco DA Gama
2
1
L
03.09.23
H2H
Bahia
Vasco DA Gama
1
1
D
28.08.22
H2H
Bahia
Vasco DA Gama
2
1
L
07.10.20
H2H
Bahia
Vasco DA Gama
3
0
L
05.12.19
H2H
Bahia
Vasco DA Gama
1
1
D

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 21 14 5 2 38:16 22 47
W L W W W
2 20 11 6 3 37:18 19 39
D D W W L
3 21 11 4 6 28:19 9 37
D W W W W
4 21 9 7 5 30:25 5 34
D D D D L
5
Bahia Home
21 8 8 5 29:25 4 32
D D D W W
6 20 9 4 7 26:20 6 31
D D W W W
7 21 8 6 7 27:30 -3 30
W L W D W
8 20 8 5 7 34:32 2 29
W D W L D
9 21 7 8 6 22:20 2 29
D D W W W
10 20 8 4 8 25:25 0 28
W D W L W
11 21 7 6 8 25:28 -3 27
L D L L W
12 20 7 5 8 25:23 2 26
D L L D L
13 21 7 5 9 22:31 -9 26
L L D W L
14 20 6 5 9 23:27 -4 23
W D W L W
15 20 5 7 8 29:33 -4 22
D L W L L
16 21 5 7 9 23:27 -4 22
D L L L L
17 20 5 7 8 22:26 -4 22
D L L W D
18 20 5 6 9 23:31 -8 21
D L L L L
19 21 5 6 10 24:34 -10 21
L W L W L
20 20 1 7 12 19:41 -22 10
D L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B