FRANCE LIGUE 3
--.--.---- --:--
Stade de Lattre-de-Tassigny
Aubagne
Match Timeline
Caen
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
16'
C. Rocchia ↔ K. Madi
Aubagne
28'
M. Bentoumi · Assist: K. Madi
Aubagne
🔄
57'
B. Dali Amar ↔ K. Portut
Caen
🔄
58'
I. Curis ↔ E. Mayilla
Aubagne
🟨
60'
A. Tafni
Aubagne
61'
I. Botella · Assist: L. Rajot
Caen
🟨
64'
M. Hafid
Caen
🔄
72'
A. Tafni ↔ A. Diaby
Aubagne
🔄
72'
I. Botella ↔ A. Gnanduillet
Caen
🔄
73'
S. Ahamada ↔ P. Berrehail
Aubagne
89'
E. Mayilla
Aubagne
🟨
90'
E. Mayilla
Aubagne
🔄
90+1'
Z. Bagbema ↔ G. Tome
Caen
🔄
90+1'
R. Labonne ↔ S. Gomis
Caen
90'
M. Bentoumi · Assist: E. Mayilla
Aubagne

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 96.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 30.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 32.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
96.7%
-
BTTS BTTS No
30.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
32.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Aubagne Win 3.3%
Draw 0%
Caen Win 96.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Aubagne1.08
Caen1.31
Recent Form (Last 5)
Aubagne Aubagne
WWDLW
35 GF / 45 GA
Caen Caen
WLDWL
40 GF / 34 GA
Key Stats
1.09
Average Goals Scored
1.25
1.41
Average Goals Conceded
1.06
20
BTTS Yes
18
15
Over 2.5
13
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Aubagne Aubagne 32 matches
Caen Caen 32 matches
Aubagne Statistic Caen
8 Wins 8
11 Draws 16
13 Losses 8
35 Goals For 40
45 Goals Against 34
1.09 Avg Goals Scored 1.25
1.41 Avg Goals Conceded 1.06
20 BTTS Yes 18
26 Over 1.5 24
15 Over 2.5 13
6 Over 3.5 5
6 Clean Sheets 12
9 Failed To Score 7
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Caen's more proactive style and Aubagne's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Aubagne have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Caen. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Caen having the stronger overall control.

Aubagne Analysis

Aubagne approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 12 with 34 points from 31 matches. Their record of 8 wins, 10 draws, and 13 losses, together with goals at 35:45, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through M. Bentoumi (7 goals), M. Hamek (6 goals), E. Mayilla (5 goals), with creative support from K. Chaban (5 assists), B. El Kaddouri (3 assists), N. Chibani (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 7 draws, and 6 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Caen Analysis

Caen sit 8 with 40 points after 31 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 16 draws, and 7 losses, while the 38:31 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on I. Botella (9 goals), A. Duville-Parsemain (5 goals), A. Gnanduillet (5 goals), with creative support from I. Botella (4 assists), R. Labonne (4 assists), O. Mazie (3 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 3 wins, 7 draws, and 5 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Aubagne won 1 times, Caen won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:4 from Aubagne's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 3.5 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
H2H summary: Aubagne wins 1, draws 0, Caen wins 1

Lineups

Caen
Formation
Aubagne
Y. Clementia
Y. Clementia
R. Labonne
R. Labonne
M. Etuin
M. Etuin
L. Morante
L. Morante
D. Bolumbu
D. Bolumbu
Z. Bagbema
Z. Bagbema
L. Rajot
🎯
L. Rajot
M. Hafid
M. Hafid
B. Dali Amar
B. Dali Amar
I. Botella
I. Botella
A. Duville-Parsemain
A. Duville-Parsemain
T. Moreira
T. Moreira
M. Abdallah
M. Abdallah
R. Mimb Baheng
R. Mimb Baheng
M. Nehari
M. Nehari
C. Rocchia
C. Rocchia
A. Oudjani
A. Oudjani
A. Tafni
A. Tafni
S. Ahamada
S. Ahamada
M. Bentoumi
⚽ 2
M. Bentoumi
I. Curis
I. Curis
B. El Kaddouri
B. El Kaddouri
Caen 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
16
Y. Clementia
17
R. Labonne
↓ 90+1'
26
M. Etuin
23
L. Morante
3
D. Bolumbu
25
Z. Bagbema
↓ 90+1'
14
L. Rajot
🎯 61'
22
M. Hafid
🟨 64'
5
B. Dali Amar
↓ 57'
19
I. Botella
⚽ 61' ↓ 72'
9
A. Duville-Parsemain
Substitutes
11
A. Gnanduillet
↑ 72'
21
G. Tome
↑ 90+1'
34
S. Gomis
↑ 90+1'
32
K. Portut
↑ 57'
24
L. Milliner
Aubagne 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
T. Moreira
13
M. Abdallah
15
R. Mimb Baheng
26
M. Nehari
8
C. Rocchia
↓ 16'
18
A. Oudjani
6
A. Tafni
↓ 72' 🟨 60'
33
S. Ahamada
↓ 73'
28
M. Bentoumi
⚽ 28' ⚽ 90'
32
I. Curis
↓ 58'
34
B. El Kaddouri
Substitutes
4
A. Diaby
↑ 72'
36
K. Madi
🎯 28' ↑ 16'
14
E. Mayilla
⚽ 89' 🎯 90' ↑ 58' 🟨 90'
31
M. El Asrar
7
P. Berrehail
↑ 73'
Last matches: Aubagne
07.08.26
Lig
Aubagne
Thionville Lusitanos
0
3
L
24.07.26
Fri
Aubagne
Bastia
1
1
D
11.07.26
Fri
Aubagne
Montpellier
2
3
L
09.05.26
Lig
Aubagne
Gobelins
1
1
D
01.05.26
Lig
Aubagne
Stade Briochin
1
2
L
24.04.26
Lig
Aubagne
Rouen
1
3
L
17.04.26
Lig
Aubagne
Orleans
0
2
L
10.04.26
Lig
Aubagne
Le Puy Foot
2
1
W
03.04.26
Lig
Aubagne
Chateauroux
1
1
D
27.03.26
Lig
Aubagne
Valenciennes
0
0
D
20.03.26
Lig
Aubagne
Sochaux
1
4
L
13.03.26
Lig
Aubagne
Dijon
1
2
L
06.03.26
Lig
Aubagne
Fleury 91
1
2
L
27.02.26
Lig
Aubagne
Versailles
0
3
L
20.02.26
Lig
Aubagne
Quevilly
0
1
L
13.02.26
Lig
Aubagne
Bourg-en-bresse 01
1
0
W
06.02.26
Lig
Aubagne
Concarneau
0
1
L
23.01.26
Lig
Aubagne
Villefranche
1
2
L
16.01.26
Lig
Aubagne
Gobelins
1
1
D
12.12.25
Lig
Aubagne
Stade Briochin
3
1
W
Last matches: Caen
07.08.26
Lig
Caen
Valenciennes
4
0
W
31.07.26
Fri
Caen
Dieppe
1
1
D
25.07.26
Fri
Caen
Al Wakrah
4
1
W
18.07.26
Fri
Caen
Laval
4
2
W
15.07.26
Fri
Caen
Gobelins
3
4
L
09.07.26
Fri
Caen
Rennes
2
1
W
09.05.26
Lig
Caen
Concarneau
0
0
D
24.04.26
Lig
Caen
Villefranche
3
0
W
17.04.26
Lig
Caen
Bourg-en-bresse 01
2
0
W
10.04.26
Lig
Caen
Gobelins
3
0
W
03.04.26
Lig
Caen
Stade Briochin
1
1
D
27.03.26
Lig
Caen
Rouen
1
1
D
21.03.26
Lig
Caen
Orleans
1
1
D
13.03.26
Lig
Caen
Le Puy Foot
0
1
L
06.03.26
Lig
Caen
Chateauroux
2
2
D
28.02.26
Lig
Caen
Valenciennes
1
2
L
20.02.26
Lig
Caen
Sochaux
1
3
L
13.02.26
Lig
Caen
Dijon
3
3
D
06.02.26
Lig
Caen
Fleury 91
1
0
W
30.01.26
Lig
Caen
Versailles
1
2
L
H2H: Aubagne vs Caen
15.05.26
H2H
Aubagne
Caen
3
1
W
08.08.25
H2H
Caen
Aubagne
3
0
L
Last matches: Aubagne
07.08.26
Lig
Aubagne
Thionville Lusitanos
0
3
L
24.07.26
Fri
Aubagne
Bastia
1
1
D
01.05.26
Lig
Aubagne
Stade Briochin
1
2
L
17.04.26
Lig
Aubagne
Orleans
0
2
L
03.04.26
Lig
Aubagne
Chateauroux
1
1
D
20.03.26
Lig
Aubagne
Sochaux
1
4
L
06.03.26
Lig
Aubagne
Fleury 91
1
2
L
20.02.26
Lig
Aubagne
Quevilly
0
1
L
13.02.26
Lig
Aubagne
Bourg-en-bresse 01
1
0
W
16.01.26
Lig
Aubagne
Gobelins
1
1
D
05.12.25
Lig
Aubagne
Rouen
1
1
D
07.11.25
Lig
Aubagne
Le Puy Foot
1
4
L
21.10.25
Lig
Aubagne
Valenciennes
1
1
D
03.10.25
Lig
Aubagne
Dijon
1
1
D
19.09.25
Lig
Aubagne
Versailles
1
1
D
29.08.25
Lig
Aubagne
Concarneau
1
1
D
15.08.25
Lig
Aubagne
Villefranche
3
1
W
H2H at home: Aubagne
15.05.26
H2H
Aubagne
Caen
3
1
W
Last matches: Caen
09.07.26
Fri
Caen
Rennes
2
1
W
17.04.26
Lig
Caen
Bourg-en-bresse 01
2
0
W
10.04.26
Lig
Caen
Gobelins
3
0
W
27.03.26
Lig
Caen
Rouen
1
1
D
13.03.26
Lig
Caen
Le Puy Foot
0
1
L
28.02.26
Lig
Caen
Valenciennes
1
2
L
13.02.26
Lig
Caen
Dijon
3
3
D
30.01.26
Lig
Caen
Versailles
1
2
L
16.01.26
Lig
Caen
Concarneau
3
3
D
05.12.25
Lig
Caen
Villefranche
1
1
D
15.11.25
Cou
Caen
Bayeux
2
3
L
31.10.25
Lig
Caen
Stade Briochin
1
1
D
17.10.25
Lig
Caen
Orleans
1
2
L
26.09.25
Lig
Caen
Chateauroux
1
2
L
12.09.25
Lig
Caen
Sochaux
1
1
D
29.08.25
Lig
Caen
Fleury 91
2
1
W
15.08.25
Lig
Caen
Quevilly
1
1
D
H2H away: Caen
15.05.26
H2H
Aubagne
Caen
3
1
L

Standings

National
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 18 11 3 52:25 27 65
W W L W D
2 32 16 10 6 51:26 25 58
D L D W D
3 32 14 13 5 43:29 14 55
W L D W D
4 32 15 9 8 47:30 17 54
L L W W W
5 32 15 8 9 46:34 12 53
D W D D W
6 32 14 9 9 42:42 0 51
L W D L W
7 32 12 11 9 45:38 7 47
D L L D D
8
Caen Away
32 8 16 8 39:34 5 40
L D W W W
9 32 8 14 10 32:37 -5 38
D D D W D
10 32 10 8 14 35:44 -9 37
D L D L L
11 32 9 10 13 38:46 -8 37
W D L L L
12 32 10 7 15 34:45 -11 37
D L L W D
13 32 8 9 15 34:45 -11 33
W L D W D
14 32 7 11 14 26:41 -15 32
L D D L L
15 32 8 7 17 25:44 -19 31
W W L L L
16 32 6 13 13 35:49 -14 30
D W W L L
17 32 5 12 15 35:50 -15 27
D W W L D
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