08.08.2026 17:45
Estadio Monumental Jose Fierro
Referee: L. Rey Hilfer
Atletico Tucuman
Match Timeline
Sarmiento Junin
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
38'
Mauricio Martínez
Sarmiento Junin
🔄
61'
J. Contrera ↔ U. Gimenez
Sarmiento Junin
🔄
61'
J. Herrera ↔ Diego Churin
Sarmiento Junin
🔄
61'
J. Insaurralde ↔ G. Arturia
Sarmiento Junin
69'
J. Marabel
Sarmiento Junin
71'
J. Mavilla
Sarmiento Junin
🔄
72'
N. Franco ↔ M. Brondo
Atletico Tucuman
🔄
80'
J. Mavilla ↔ G. Gonzalez
Sarmiento Junin
🔄
81'
N. Lamendola ↔ A. Canelo
Atletico Tucuman
🔄
81'
R. Tesuri ↔ L. Di Placido
Atletico Tucuman
🔄
81'
M. Villa ↔ R. Granillo
Atletico Tucuman
81'
L. Vallejo · Assist: C. D. Ferreira Namandu
Atletico Tucuman
🔄
89'
J. Marabel ↔ G. Diaz
Sarmiento Junin
🟨
90+4'
Santiago Salle
Sarmiento Junin
🔄
90'
I. Galvan ↔ R. Paunero
Atletico Tucuman

Atletico Tucuman vs Sarmiento Junin Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 61.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
61.3%
-
BTTS Yes
58.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
68.8%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Atletico Tucuman Win 61.3%
Draw 11.9%
Sarmiento Junin Win 26.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atletico Tucuman1.18
Sarmiento Junin0.97
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atletico Tucuman Atletico Tucuman
WWDLW
22 GF / 21 GA
Sarmiento Junin Sarmiento Junin
WLDWL
20 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
1.05
Average Goals Scored
0.95
1
Average Goals Conceded
1.38
10
BTTS Yes
9
10
Over 2.5
10
3.32
Shots on Goal
3.58

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atletico Tucuman Atletico Tucuman 21 matches
Sarmiento Junin Sarmiento Junin 21 matches
Atletico Tucuman Statistic Sarmiento Junin
6 Wins 8
7 Draws 1
8 Losses 12
22 Goals For 20
21 Goals Against 29
1.05 Avg Goals Scored 0.95
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.38
10 BTTS Yes 9
14 Over 1.5 13
10 Over 2.5 10
2 Over 3.5 4
9 Clean Sheets 6
6 Failed To Score 7
3.32 Shots On Goal 3.58
11.84 Total Shots 10.11
4.68 Corners 3.68
45.2% Ball Possession 47.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Sarmiento Junin. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Sarmiento Junin arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Atletico Tucuman expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Sarmiento Junin in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Sarmiento Junin having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Atletico Tucuman Analysis

So far, Atletico Tucuman have built a campaign that leaves them 13 in the table on 14 points from 16 matches. Their overall return of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses with goals at 15:20 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Leandro Díaz (2 goals), Franco Nicola (1 goals), Renzo Tesuri (1 goals), with creative support from Luis Ingolotti (1 assists), Maximiliano Villa (1 assists), Ramiro Ruiz Rodríguez (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split return of 2 wins, 5 draws, and 1 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Sarmiento Junin Analysis

With 19 points from 16 games and a place of 11, Sarmiento Junin still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 6 wins, 1 draws, and 9 defeats, and the 13:20 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on Junior Marabel (4 goals), Cristian Zabala (1 goals), Pablo Magnin (1 goals), with creative support from Junior Marabel (2 assists), Cristian Zabala (1 assists), Pablo Magnin (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 0 draws, and 7 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Atletico Tucuman won 7 times, Sarmiento Junin won 6 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:20 from Atletico Tucuman's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.93 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.1%)
Predicted formations: Atletico Tucuman 4-3-3 / Sarmiento Junin 4-4-2
H2H summary: Atletico Tucuman wins 7, draws 2, Sarmiento Junin wins 6

Standings

Apertura - Group B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 10 4 2 29:15 14 34
W W L W D
2 16 9 2 5 22:12 10 29
L W W W D
3 16 8 5 3 17:13 4 29
L D D W D
4 16 8 4 4 20:16 4 28
W W D L D
5 16 7 5 4 17:13 4 26
W D D D L
6 16 8 2 6 19:19 0 26
D D W W L
7 16 5 7 4 17:13 4 22
W W D D D
8 16 5 6 5 17:15 2 21
W L L L D
9 16 5 6 5 15:15 0 21
L D D D L
10 16 4 8 4 18:15 3 20
L L L D W
11 16 6 1 9 13:20 -7 19
L D W L W
12 16 5 3 8 17:19 -2 18
D D L L L
13 16 3 5 8 15:20 -5 14
L L W D D
14 16 0 8 8 6:19 -13 8
W L W L L
15 16 1 2 13 5:24 -19 5
L L L D D
Knockout Phase