05.09.2026 20:00
TD Place Stadium
Atlético Ottawa
Match Timeline
Pacific FC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
VAR
17'
Marco Bustos
Pacific FC
🟨
41'
Juan David Quintana Echeverry
Pacific FC
🟨
45+2'
Christian Greco-Taylor
Pacific FC
🔄
55'
Kamron Habibullah ↔ Joaquim Coulanges
Atlético Ottawa
🔄
56'
Jean-Aniel Assi ↔ Diego Gutiérrez
Atlético Ottawa
🔄
56'
Daniel Aguilar ↔ Juan Castro
Atlético Ottawa
VAR
61'
Nicolas Fleuriau Chateau
Atlético Ottawa
🟨
65'
Tim Arnaud
Atlético Ottawa
🔄
68'
Lukas Browning Lagerfeldt ↔ Josh Heard
Pacific FC
🔄
69'
Aidan Daniels ↔ M. Vales
Pacific FC
🔄
75'
R. Kratt ↔ Alejandro Diaz
Pacific FC
🔄
75'
Marco Bustos ↔ Shaan Hundal
Pacific FC
🟨
80'
Loïc Cloutier
Atlético Ottawa
🔄
81'
Y. Toualy ↔ Tristan Kendal Marshall
Pacific FC
🔄
83'
Tim Arnaud ↔ Noah Abraham Sewonet Abatneh
Atlético Ottawa
🔄
83'
G. Antinoro ↔ Emiliano·García
Atlético Ottawa

Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 87.7%
Odds 1.75
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds 1.44
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.40
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
87.7%
1.75
BTTS Yes
86%
1.44
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.40
Corners O/U Under 10.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.40
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
Atlético Ottawa Win 87.7%
Draw 4.7%
Pacific FC Win 7.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atlético Ottawa1.8
Pacific FC1.48
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atlético Ottawa Atlético Ottawa
WWDLW
34 GF / 41 GA
Pacific FC Pacific FC
WLDWL
22 GF / 39 GA
Key Stats
1.55
Average Goals Scored
1.22
1.86
Average Goals Conceded
2.17
15
BTTS Yes
14
16
Over 2.5
12
1.77
Shots on Goal
2.28

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atlético Ottawa Atlético Ottawa 22 matches
Pacific FC Pacific FC 18 matches
Atlético Ottawa Statistic Pacific FC
10 Wins 1
3 Draws 5
9 Losses 12
34 Goals For 22
41 Goals Against 39
1.55 Avg Goals Scored 1.22
1.86 Avg Goals Conceded 2.17
15 BTTS Yes 14
20 Over 1.5 16
16 Over 2.5 12
10 Over 3.5 7
3 Clean Sheets 0
4 Failed To Score 4
1.77 Shots On Goal 2.28
4.95 Total Shots 6.39
1.77 Corners 2
29.3% Ball Possession 25.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Atlético Ottawa come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. Atlético Ottawa arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 33 points compared to Pacific FC in 8 on 5, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Atlético Ottawa expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Pacific FC in 4-2-2-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Pacific FC having the stronger overall control. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Pacific FC.

Atlético Ottawa Analysis

Atlético Ottawa approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 3 on 33 points after 20 outings. The return of 10 wins, 3 draws, and 7 defeats, together with goals at 34:34, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking edge comes through their main attacking players, while their defending has remained fairly stable. At home, the split of 7 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward a more cautious and defensive approach.

Pacific FC Analysis

Pacific FC approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 8 with 5 points from 17 matches. The overall return of 0 wins, 5 draws, and 12 defeats with a 18:36 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on M. Bustos (1 goals), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Atlético Ottawa won 8 times, Pacific FC won 2 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:12 from Atlético Ottawa's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.3%)
Predicted formations: Atlético Ottawa 3-4-2-1 / Pacific FC 4-2-2-2
H2H summary: Atlético Ottawa wins 8, draws 5, Pacific FC wins 2

Standings

Canadian Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 15 5 2 42:13 29 50
D W W W W
2 22 14 4 4 34:16 18 46
D W D L W
3 23 10 4 9 34:39 -5 34
L L D W L
4 23 9 4 10 31:29 2 31
D L W L L
5 23 7 5 11 35:38 -3 26
W W L L W
6 22 7 4 11 31:38 -7 25
W L L W D
7 21 5 8 8 30:46 -16 23
L W D D L
8 22 1 8 13 26:44 -18 11
D L D D W