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LATVIA › VIRSLIGA
19.10.2026 16:00
LNK Sporta Parks

Rīgas FS vs Tukums Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 88%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 63.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
88%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
63.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Rīgas FS Win 88%
Draw 6%
Tukums Win 6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Rīgas FS2.18
Tukums1.2
Recent Form (Last 5)
Rīgas FS Rīgas FS
WWDLW
116 GF / 45 GA
Tukums Tukums
WLDWL
49 GF / 69 GA
Key Stats
2.32
Average Goals Scored
1.4
0.9
Average Goals Conceded
1.97
26
BTTS Yes
28
29
Over 2.5
25
1
Shots on Goal
0.67

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Rīgas FS Rīgas FS 50 matches
Tukums Tukums 35 matches
Rīgas FS Statistic Tukums
36 Wins 5
9 Draws 11
5 Losses 19
116 Goals For 49
45 Goals Against 69
2.32 Avg Goals Scored 1.4
0.9 Avg Goals Conceded 1.97
26 BTTS Yes 28
40 Over 1.5 33
29 Over 2.5 25
20 Over 3.5 14
21 Clean Sheets 1
4 Failed To Score 6
1 Shots On Goal 0.67
0 Total Shots 2.67
1.11 Corners 1.33
12.4% Ball Possession 10.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Rīgas FS's more proactive style and Tukums's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Tukums. Tukums arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Rīgas FS arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 77 points compared to Tukums in 9 on 24, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Rīgas FS expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Tukums in 3-5-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Tukums having the stronger overall control.

Rīgas FS Analysis

Rīgas FS come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 77 points after 31 matches. They have recorded 24 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses, with a 75:24 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 10 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Tukums Analysis

With 24 points from 32 games and a place of 9, Tukums still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 9 draws, and 18 defeats, and the 44:63 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 4 draws, and 11 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Rīgas FS won 15 times, Tukums won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 59:16 from Rīgas FS's perspective. 12 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (94%)
Predicted formations: Rīgas FS 4-2-3-1 / Tukums 3-5-2
H2H summary: Rīgas FS wins 15, draws 0, Tukums wins 0

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 31 24 5 2 75:24 51 77
W D W D W
2 32 23 7 2 88:30 58 76
W W W D D
3 32 19 7 6 52:32 20 64
W D W D W
4 32 12 7 13 43:46 -3 43
L D D D W
5 32 11 9 12 37:36 1 42
W D L D L
6 31 11 5 15 31:41 -10 38
W L L W W
7 32 8 8 16 34:53 -19 32
L L D L W
8 32 5 11 16 22:54 -32 26
L D D L W
9 32 5 9 18 44:63 -19 24
L D L W L
10 32 4 6 22 31:78 -47 18
L W L D L