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COLOMBIA › PRIMERA A
25.09.2026 00:30
Estadio Atanasio Girardot
Referee: D. Ulloa
Atletico Nacional
Match Timeline
Millonarios
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
15'
C. Arango ↔ A. Sarmiento
Atletico Nacional
🟨
26'
Andrés Felipe Marín Bernal
Atletico Nacional
⚽
39'
J. Angulo
Millonarios
⚽
45'
A. Reyes · Assist: E. Cabrera
Atletico Nacional
🔄
46'
J. Angulo ↔ L. Castro
Millonarios
🟨
55'
Juan Zapata
Atletico Nacional
🟨
59'
Stiven Vega
Millonarios
🔄
60'
J. Zapata ↔ J. Rodriguez
Atletico Nacional
🔄
67'
M. Moreno ↔ K. Parra Atehortua
Atletico Nacional
🔄
67'
D. Ruiz ↔ D. Silva
Millonarios
🟨
70'
Leonardo Castro
Millonarios
🟨
82'
Elías Lautaro Cabrera
Atletico Nacional
VAR
85'
Andrés Sarmiento
Atletico Nacional
🟥
85'
Andrés Sarmiento
Atletico Nacional
🔄
88'
R. Urena ↔ S. Viveros
Millonarios

Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 61.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
61.1%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
86%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Atletico Nacional Win 61.1%
Draw 6.5%
Millonarios Win 32.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atletico Nacional1.55
Millonarios1.21
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional
WWDLW
68 GF / 36 GA
Millonarios Millonarios
WLDWL
46 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
1.89
Average Goals Scored
1.35
1
Average Goals Conceded
1.03
16
BTTS Yes
17
24
Over 2.5
15
6.39
Shots on Goal
6

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 36 matches
Millonarios Millonarios 34 matches
Atletico Nacional Statistic Millonarios
24 Wins 12
1 Draws 10
11 Losses 12
68 Goals For 46
36 Goals Against 35
1.89 Avg Goals Scored 1.35
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.03
16 BTTS Yes 17
28 Over 1.5 24
24 Over 2.5 15
8 Over 3.5 7
11 Clean Sheets 12
10 Failed To Score 9
6.39 Shots On Goal 6
16.64 Total Shots 15.8
5.52 Corners 5.9
57.6% Ball Possession 49.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Atletico Nacional arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 40 points compared to Millonarios in 10 on 26, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Atletico Nacional come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Millonarios.

Atletico Nacional Analysis

Atletico Nacional approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 40 points after 19 outings. They have recorded 13 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses, with a 35:15 goal return and very strong form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on A. Morelos (13 goals), J. Rengifo (7 goals), A. Sarmiento (7 goals), with creative support from J. Rengifo (7 assists), A. Morelos (6 assists), A. Sarmiento (6 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, their record of 8 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Millonarios Analysis

From their first 19 matches, Millonarios have collected 26 points and now occupy 10 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, while the 31:23 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on A. Estupiñán (13 goals), R. Contreras (10 goals), L. Castro (8 goals), with creative support from Sebastián Valencia Isaza (4 assists), A. Estupiñán (3 assists), F. Chaverra (3 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses fits a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Atletico Nacional won 3 times, Millonarios won 7 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:16 from Atletico Nacional's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 1.73 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.5%)
Predicted formations: Atletico Nacional 4-2-3-1 / Millonarios 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Atletico Nacional wins 3, draws 5, Millonarios wins 7

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
D W D L W
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
D L L W W
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
D L W W D
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
L W W D L
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
W D L L W
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
L D D D D
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
W W L W W
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
D D D L L
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
D W W W W
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
D D D W W
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
W L D L W
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
D D W L L
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
D W W W D
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
L L L W L
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
D D D L D
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
W L L L D
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
D L W L W
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
L D W L L
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
W W W L L
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
D L L D D
Post season qualification