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COLOMBIA › PRIMERA A
23.10.2026 01:00
Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 69.6%
Odds 1.22
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds 2.25
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds 1.65
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
69.6%
1.22 ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
2.25 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
1.65 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.31 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
1.73 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
10.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Atletico Nacional Win 69.6%
Draw 5.1%
Deportivo Pasto Win 25.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atletico Nacional1.67
Deportivo Pasto1.1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional
WWDLW
77 GF / 40 GA
Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto
WLDWL
40 GF / 46 GA
Key Stats
1.88
Average Goals Scored
1.18
0.98
Average Goals Conceded
1.35
20
BTTS Yes
16
26
Over 2.5
16
6.22
Shots on Goal
3.58

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 41 matches
Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 34 matches
Atletico Nacional Statistic Deportivo Pasto
26 Wins 13
4 Draws 7
11 Losses 14
77 Goals For 40
40 Goals Against 46
1.88 Avg Goals Scored 1.18
0.98 Avg Goals Conceded 1.35
20 BTTS Yes 16
32 Over 1.5 24
26 Over 2.5 16
10 Over 3.5 7
12 Clean Sheets 11
11 Failed To Score 10
6.22 Shots On Goal 3.58
16.41 Total Shots 11.67
5.41 Corners 4.12
58.1% Ball Possession 52.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Atletico Nacional expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Deportivo Pasto in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Deportivo Pasto having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Deportivo Pasto. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Atletico Nacional Analysis

Atletico Nacional approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 40 points after 19 outings. The return of 13 wins, 1 draws, and 5 defeats, together with goals at 35:15, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through A. Morelos (13 goals), A. Sarmiento (8 goals), J. Rengifo (7 goals), with creative support from J. Rengifo (7 assists), A. Morelos (6 assists), A. Sarmiento (6 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, the split of 8 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Deportivo Pasto Analysis

Placed 3 with 34 points from 19 outings, Deportivo Pasto continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 10 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 29:25 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Santiago Córdoba (5 goals), D. Chávez (4 goals), Jonathan Perlaza (2 goals), with creative support from D. Chávez (3 assists), E. Serje (2 assists), M. Gil (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Atletico Nacional won 11 times, Deportivo Pasto won 0 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 25:10 from Atletico Nacional's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.9%)
Predicted formations: Atletico Nacional 4-2-3-1 / Deportivo Pasto 4-4-2
H2H summary: Atletico Nacional wins 11, draws 4, Deportivo Pasto wins 0

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
W D W D L
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
D D D L L
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
D L W W D
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
D L W W D
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
W W D L L
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
L L D D D
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
L W W L W
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
D D D L L
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
D D W W W
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
W D D D W
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
L W L D L
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
W D D W L
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
D D W W W
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
W L L L W
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
D D D L D
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
L W L L L
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
D L W L W
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
L L D W L
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
W W W L L
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
D D L L D
Post season qualification