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BRAZIL › SERIE A
03.10.2026 21:30
MRV Arena
Referee: Lucas Casagrande, Brazil
Atletico-MG
Match Timeline
RB Bragantino
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
6'
Alix Vinicius ↔ Eduardo Santos
RB Bragantino
⚽
18'
Bernard
Atletico-MG
🔄
23'
Vitor Hugo ↔ Léo Duarte
Atletico-MG
🔄
46'
Agustin Sant Anna ↔ Henry Mosquera
RB Bragantino
🔄
46'
Fabinho ↔ Ignacio Sosa
RB Bragantino
🔄
57'
Mamady Cissé ↔ Victor Hugo
Atletico-MG
🔄
57'
Reinier ↔ Mateo Cassierra
Atletico-MG
🔄
68'
Wallace Yan ↔ Lucas Barbosa
RB Bragantino
🔄
72'
Bernard ↔ Alexsander
Atletico-MG
🔄
76'
Eduardo Sasha ↔ Isidro Pitta
RB Bragantino
🔄
76'
Eric Ramires ↔ José Herrera
RB Bragantino
🟨
84'
Ignacio Sosa
RB Bragantino
🟨
90+6'
Fred
Atletico-MG
🔄
90'
Mateo Cassierra ↔ Igor Gomes
Atletico-MG

Atletico-MG vs RB Bragantino Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 73.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
73.6%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Atletico-MG Win 73.6%
Draw 5.4%
RB Bragantino Win 21%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atletico-MG1.25
RB Bragantino1.23
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atletico-MG Atletico-MG
WWDLW
36 GF / 32 GA
RB Bragantino RB Bragantino
WLDWL
35 GF / 32 GA
Key Stats
1.33
Average Goals Scored
1.25
1.19
Average Goals Conceded
1.14
13
BTTS Yes
15
13
Over 2.5
12
4.7
Shots on Goal
5.07

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atletico-MG Atletico-MG 27 matches
RB Bragantino RB Bragantino 28 matches
Atletico-MG Statistic RB Bragantino
11 Wins 11
7 Draws 6
9 Losses 11
36 Goals For 35
32 Goals Against 32
1.33 Avg Goals Scored 1.25
1.19 Avg Goals Conceded 1.14
13 BTTS Yes 15
19 Over 1.5 22
13 Over 2.5 12
8 Over 3.5 3
6 Clean Sheets 8
9 Failed To Score 6
4.7 Shots On Goal 5.07
13.63 Total Shots 16.15
5 Corners 5.67
49.4% Ball Possession 49.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring RB Bragantino. RB Bragantino arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.

Atletico-MG Analysis

So far, Atletico-MG have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 40 points from 27 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 11 wins, 7 draws, and 9 losses, while the 36:32 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on T. Cuello (5 goals), Hulk (4 goals), Reinier (4 goals), with creative support from Hulk (4 assists), Renan Lodi (3 assists), T. Cuello (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, the record of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 1 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

RB Bragantino Analysis

With 36 points from 27 games and a place of 10, RB Bragantino still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 10 wins, 6 draws, and 11 losses, together with goals at 33:31, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through I. Pitta (6 goals), Lucas Barbosa (5 goals), Fernando (3 goals), with creative support from Henry Mosquera (4 assists), I. Pitta (2 assists), Lucas Barbosa (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Atletico-MG won 2 times, RB Bragantino won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:6 from Atletico-MG's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.6%)
Predicted formations: Atletico-MG 4-2-3-1 / RB Bragantino 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Atletico-MG 4, RB Bragantino 2
H2H summary: Atletico-MG wins 2, draws 1, RB Bragantino wins 2

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 19 7 4 58:25 33 64
W D W W W
2 30 18 9 3 52:22 30 63
W W D W D
3 30 15 8 7 49:35 14 53
W D W D L
4 30 14 9 7 48:37 11 51
L W W L W
5 30 13 10 7 44:36 8 49
W L L W W
6 30 14 6 10 46:44 2 48
L W W L W
7 30 13 8 9 41:35 6 47
W D W D W
8 30 11 9 10 46:45 1 42
L D W W W
9 30 11 7 12 38:35 3 40
W D L L D
10 30 11 6 13 35:35 0 39
W L L W L
11 30 10 9 11 38:48 -10 39
D L L D L
12 30 10 6 14 33:44 -11 36
L W L D W
13 30 9 9 12 43:48 -5 36
D L L W D
14 29 9 8 12 36:42 -6 35
D W W W L
15 30 8 9 13 34:44 -10 33
L D W D W
16 30 8 8 14 31:38 -7 32
L L L L L
17 30 7 11 12 33:38 -5 32
D W L W L
18 30 7 10 13 32:40 -8 31
D D D L L
19 30 5 10 15 33:48 -15 25
D D L L L
20 29 3 9 17 30:61 -31 18
L L D L W
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B